Missing The Point

A listless loss last night pushed these Warriors to 13-31. They continue to "boast" the third-worst record in the NBA; what's worse, they now have the fifth-worst home record in the league. Don Nelson needs a total of 24 victories this year to pass Lenny Wilkens for the all-time wins record... if the Dubs continue to lose at this pace, he won't get win #24 until the season's final game. Talk about going out with a whimper.

These are dark days, and the last thing Warriors fans need is something else to fret about. But the time for fretting is, nonetheless, upon us. There's trouble brewing in Oakland, of a type that most observers have neither noticed nor acknowledged. And while we Worriers have hinted at it before, hinting will no longer do; this issue has become pressing. It's time we faced our fears. It's time we talked about the elephant in the room.

Dearly beloved, we are gathered here today to lament the passing of Stephen Curry, because it just hasn't been very good. And the odds of him ever becoming a quality NBA point guard aren't very good, either.

We will now take questions.

Wait, what?! We're going to need a more specific question than that.

You're saying Stephen Curry hasn't been passing well?! That's correct.

OMGWTF?!?!?!??!? Have you even seen the kid play?! Indeed... I've seen 42 of our 44 games this season. And I've seen him complete some dazzling, creative passes, particularly in transition. I've also seen him throw dozens of passes that were easily intercepted. I've seen him dribble onto his foot eight or nine times. I've seen him throw the ball out of bounds eight or nine times. And literally hundreds of times now, I've seen him receive the ball on the perimeter, dribble around looking for an opening, and then give the ball back to Monta after failing to find one.

Stephen Curry's best passes have been downright brilliant, but you don't judge a playmaker by his best passes alone... three great passes a game do not a point guard make. Overall, Stephen Curry is just 21st among point guards in assists per night, despite an above-average number of minutes and our league-leading team pace; of the 46 point guards who've played a significant number of minutes, he has the 43rd-best assist/turnover ratio, with a 1.77 mark. By the numbers, he is, quite simply, one of the worst passing point guards in basketball.

Oh, numbers, schnumbers. It's not Stephen Curry's fault his teammates suck. If he were on a better team, he'd easily be averaging 8-9 assists a night. You sure about that, Sparky? For while the Warriors are admittedly a mess, they provide more than their share of potential assist possibilities. The Warriors score the second-most field goals per game of any team in basketball. They have the ninth-best field-goal percentage in the NBA, and if you remove Curry -- leaving only his potential passing targets -- they have the eighth-best field-goal percentage in the NBA. As a team, the Warriors produce an above-average number of assists.

Stephen Curry is averaging 34.2 minutes a night, an above-average figure for a point guard, and yet he's only led the Warriors in assists 15 times in 44 games. During his time on the floor, he assists only 20.0% of the team's field goals... Monta assists 22.7%, and while he was here, Stephen Jackson assisted 21.7%. If Stephen Curry's such a great playmaker, shouldn't he be able to record assists a bit more often than those guys?

Maybe he would, if he ever got the ball. Don't you think Monta's ball-hogging could explain why Curry's assist totals are so low? Possibly, but it doesn't explain why Curry's turnover totals are so high. For a guy who hasn't gotten the ball very often, Curry has sure turned it over a fair amount. His Turnover Ratio -- the percentage of his plays (FGA/FTA/AST/TO) that end in a turnover -- is 13.2%, tying him with legendary playmaker Roy Hibbert for the 24th-worst mark in the league. Only four point guards rank worse than Curry in that department.

Isn't one of those four point guards STEVE NASH? Yes. And the other three are Earl Watson, Mario Chalmers and Jonny Flynn. What's your point?

We shouldn't find Curry's proximity to Nash in these rankings any more heartening than we should find his proximity to Arenas on the all-time fouls-by-a-guard leaderboard. It's easy to match a good player's bad numbers... the trick is matching their good numbers. And while Curry is putting up good numbers and then some as a shooter, he's putting up bad numbers as a passer. His passing numbers don't hold a candle to C.J. Watson's. Right now, Stephen Curry has a worse assist/turnover ratio than Andris Biedrins.

Whatever, he hasn't been that bad. His passing numbers are a helluva lot better than Monta's, aren't they? Actually... no, not really.

By assist/turnover ratio, Curry is a good bit ahead of Monta, 1.77 to 1.36. But Monta turns it over a good bit less often, considering how much more he has the ball. Moreover, not all turnovers are created equal... while an offensive foul is just as costly as a bad pass, it is not nearly as indicative of iffy playmaking. If we want to rate this two strictly on their passing success, we'll need to dork out a bit and separate their turnovers by type. And happily, 82games.com can help us do it.

A closer look at their numbers reveals that Stephen Curry has recorded 3.0 assists per bad pass. Monta has recorded 4.0 assists per bad pass. Monta has not just been a more successful overall passer than Curry, he's been significantlymore successful. So has CJ (5.3 assists per bad pass), so has Biedrins (4.8), so has Randolph (4.7), so has Corey Maggette (4.0). The only Warriors who've recorded fewer assists per passing turnover than Stephen Curry are Turiaf, Vlad and the D-Leaguers. And the only starting NBA point guard who's recorded fewer assists per passing turnover is Jonny Flynn.

This isn't, like, a matter of opinion, man. Thus far, Stephen Curry... has... been... bad... at... passing.

Okay, fine -- get off the kid's back! He's just a rookie. For a rookie, his passing has been incredible. By "incredible," I'm assuming you mean "worse than the passing of Eric Maynor, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, Brandon Jennings, Darren Collison and Jrue Holliday." Look, it's tempting to think that point guards take a while to learn the ropes in the NBA, but in practice, it's rarely the case... if you don't hit the ground running, you're a good bet to move off of the position. And of the twenty-nine other starting point guards in the NBA right now, twenty-five passed (or are passing) better as rookies than Curry currently is. The four exceptions? Chauncey Billups, Russell Westbrook, Tyreke Evans and Jonny Flynn. The former pair were able to overcome their early struggles through their athleticism and ability to penetrate, two things Curry lacks. The latter two probably won't be playing the point by this time next year. Will Curry?

Of course he will! How dare you?! Stephen Curry is going to be a great NBA point guard! Now it's my turn to ask a question: why are you so sure?

...because he throws some beautiful passes? So does Marco Belinelli. You want him running your offense?

...because he's intelligent? So is Adonal Foyle. You want him running your offense?

...because he's the son of a good player? So is Patrick Ewing, Jr.

...because Steve Nash struggled as a young point guard? So did Bobby Hurley. And both those guys passed a lot better than Curry currently is.

...because Don Nelson says Curry's the best player he's had since Steve Nash? If you buy Don Nelson a couple fingers of Glenlivet, he'll call you the best player he's had since Steve Nash. No NBA figure's ramblings have less credibility than Nellie's.

...because Bobby Knight said Curry was as good a passer as ever played college basketball? Bobby Knight never coached Stephen Curry. Bobby Knight never coached against Stephen Curry. Bobby Knight is batshit crazy. Also, the Golden State Warriors don't play college basketball.

Doesn't it worry you at least a little that Stephen Curry hasn't shown elite passing production at any level since high school? This guy grew up playing the point, after all, and yet, despite being named North Carolina's all-state MVP as a senior, he didn't get a single scholarship offer from a major conference school. His size was listed as the main reason why, but at 6' 160", he was certainly big enough to play the one for some school or another... if his size really kept teams for going after him, it's because they didn't think he'd be able to hang at the point. He went to Davidson and was moved to the two, and while he played brilliantly well in his first two seasons there, he passed no better than your average Southern Conference shooting guard. In his junior season, with the graduation of Jason Richards, Stephen Curry took over the playmaking duties, and while he again played brilliantly, his passing numbers -- 5.6 assists, 3.7 turnovers -- were nothing to write home about. It'd be fair to chalk a lot of that up to the weakness of his teammates... on the other hand, his opponents were fairly weak on average, as well. Nothing about Stephen Curry's college career screamed "future NBA point guard".

One year later, he's one of the least effective point guards in the league... he's looking every bit as overmatched at the position as his history, size and athleticism would make you expect. And yet the consensus of wide-eyed Warriors fans is not only that he's going to be a good point guard, but that he's going to be the best point guard in basketball someday. Really, guys? Really?!

For the record: I hope they're right. I hope that Stephen Curry puts it all together and becomes Steve Nash 2.0, because the Warriors could really, really use a guy like that. I hope that every prediction in every puff piece comes true. I hope that he retires as the greatest passer in NBA history, and that the few people that happened to read this blog post will think me a fool. Stephen Curry could become a great point guard. Anything's possible.

But right now, I'm seeing a creative passer who isn't capable of beating his man in the halfcourt. Unless and until he figures out how to do that, he simply can't be an effective NBA playmaker... you're not going to find many openings in a defense if you can't create them yourself. And while Curry may figure out how to beat his man, given his physical limitations -- he's fairly short with a tiny wingspan, he lacks strength and explosiveness, he's not fast for his size -- the odds are against him doing it. He does seem to have a very good basketball IQ, but barring a late growth spurt, that won't be nearly enough. He'd need a basketball IQ of historic quality -- almost as good as anyone's who's ever played -- to become a great point guard despite his physical limits. And given all the mistakes he makes, there is no evidence, whatsoever, that he has that.

Root for the kid. Love him. Tell folk tales in the mountains about him. But until he demonstrates that he can actually hang at the position, you should probably stop calling him the next Steve Nash. It's not the end of the world if he ends up being the next Jason Terry, instead.