February 28, 2010

Oakland's Newest Reggie

The Dubs' D-Leaguer deluge continues! Scott Schroeder of Ridiculous Upside reports that the Warriors will be signing Reggie Williams to a ten-day contract on Tuesday. Williams, a 23-year-old VMI alum, is a offensive-minded three (he led the nation in scoring in both his junior and senior years), and will more than likely be playing the role of Corey Maggette for the next five games.

Schroeder likes the signing -- in fact, he thinks the team whiffed by choosing Cartier Martin over Williams back in January. In a January rundown of D-League prospects, BP's Kevin Pelton rated Williams as the league's most promising small forward and the league's most promising overall scorer. In 31 games with the Sioux Falls Skyforce, Williams has scored efficiently (.576 FG%, .410 3P%, .824 FT%) and often (26.4 points per game). Reports on his D are mixed, and (per Pelton) his rebound rate doesn't translate well to the NBA. Still, as scrap-heap guys go, this seems like a good one.

The Warriors will surely get their money's worth out of him... Nellie gave Cartier 27.6 minutes a night, and Williams can actually get the ball in the basket, unlike Cartier. This DraftExpress description certainly makes the kid sound like he's up the fat man's alley. Williams isn't likely to outlast his contract, but if he posts some big nights, who knows? Maybe he'll finally convince the Dubs to abandon their sad delusions of Raja Bell being either able or willing to help them next year.

February 27, 2010

#58: DET @ GSW 2/27/10

Detroit Pistons
Record: 21-37 (23rd) • Point Differential: -4.3 (25th) • Pace: 88.4 (29th)
Off. Efficiency: 104.0 (25th) • eFG: 46.4 (29th) • TO: 15.4 (14th) • OReb: 31.0 (2nd) • FT/FG: 21.8 (22nd)
Def. Efficiency: 108.9 (21st) • eFG: 51.0 (23rd) • TO: 16.2 (7th) • OReb: 26.4 (17th) • FT/FG: 27.1 (29th)

PreThoughts
The Warriors' second-longest homestand of the season ends here. In fact, while nobody was looking, the schedule tipped decidedly in the other direction; after this game, the Dubs will have played 31 times in Oakland and just 27 times elsewhere. (Cross "tough schedule" off the franchise's long list of attempted excuses.) The Warriors have gone 2-3 on this Oracle tilt so far -- the wins were both thrilling in their respective ways, and a victory over the Pistons would be enough to call this homestand a relative success.

The Pistons are not exactly what you'd call tough customers, either. In the teams' last meeting, Detroit prevailed, rising to a record of 11-12... they lost their next thirteen games, however, and now rate worse than the Dubs by point differential. The Pistons feature most of the same defensive flaws as the Warriors, letting opponents score efficiently from the field and often from the line. And while the Warriors shoot fairly well from the field, the Pistons shoot worse than any team that's not based in New Jersey.

However, the Pistons have somewhat stabilized of late, winning six of twelve. Richard Hamilton, overrated and overpaid though he may be, has re-found his form... he's been Detroit's top scorer in each of their last six games, averaging 27.2 points per contest in that span. And the one area in which the Pistons rate well -- offensive rebounding -- is the one area that has most kneecapped the Warriors this season. The Dubs will need a healthy dose of Andris Biedrins in this game to have a chance. Let's hope that he and Nellie allow that to happen.

Warrior To Watch: Stephen Curry, who's earned this label for the foreseeable future. Can he finally post two excellent games in a row?

Piston To Watch: Tayshaun Prince, who's been logging heavy minutes for over a month now, quieting fears about his back problems. The Pistons will look to shake up their roster this summer, and a Maggette package for Prince is a (longshot) possibility the Warriors should pursue.

#57: DEN @ GSW 2/25/10

PostThoughts -- Nuggets 127, Warriors 112
Best game of Stephen Curry's career, bar none. He exhibited high-level playmaking against a good team for the first time, scored 30 points on 19 shots, and recorded his seventh straight 6+ rebound night, to boot... he's averaging 7.7 boards over that span. I am not yet drinking the "superstar" Kool-Aid, but it's starting to catch my eye when I browse the metaphorical basketball food product aisle.

Also, watching Anthony Morrow shoot threes is the purest joy in Warriors fandom. Also, good job, Nellie! You turned Biedrins into an airballin' pile of Jell-O. Also, nice to see the Dubs launching 24 times from three-point land. It only took them 57 games to realize they should play like underdogs. Other than that, nothing to see here... this was the moderately big home loss one would've expected.

The Warriors lag four games behind their pace from last year, and have now slipped a game behind the pace of the '04-'05 team, whose Baron-fueled season-ending hot streak started in game #57. Eric Musselman's teams never dipped nearly this low. In fact, the last time the Dubs fell to 16-41, Brian Winters was on the bench. So while it may be fun to dream on Curry and his fellow young 'uns, let's be clear about what we're seeing here. This is the most incompetent Warriors team in eight seasons.

February 23, 2010

#56: PHI @ GSW 2/23/10

PreThoughts
Tonight's game features the rare opponent that can match the Warriors in chaos. The Sixers have been switching schemes, trying to dump Iguodalas, and alternating brilliant games with wretched ones. They've recorded a twelve-game losing streak and a five-game winning streak, something few teams can say. And in their last three games, they've lost to the Heat by 27, beaten the Spurs by 12, and lost to the Bulls by 32. If you can figure them out, more power to you.

This matchup resulted in a memorably ugly game last time around, as the Dubs lost big and got out-rebounded by an NBA season-high 33. But tonight features a different cast of characters on both sides. The Warriors have replaced Mikki, Vlad, Randolph and Maggette with Biedrins, Tolliver and (probably) Ronny... it's hard to imagine they'll struggle that badly on the boards again. The Sixers have Lou Williams in place of Iverson, a swap that'll make the Golden State guards' jobs tougher, as both his style and his numbers are reminiscent of Monta's better, Baron-era play. Curry & Monta vs. Lou & Jrue is a midget tag-team match that could headline Arena Mexico.

The Sixers don't do anything all that well on either end, so it's a thoroughly winnable game. But with these two enigmatic teams, who knows -- a 30-point blowout win by either wouldn't be all that surprising.

Warrior To Watch: Stephen Curry. Would be nice to see him string a couple great games in a row.
Sixer To Watch: Andre Iguodala. You've thought about trading Monta for him... let's see how they fare against each other tonight.

Warriors SCORE Board, 2.23.10

Previous Editions: 12.21.091.10.102.08.102.17.10

Our formula remains the same, but this time out, we're going to excise 'Buike, Randolph and Vlad and zero in on the ten Warriors we've seen lately.













Stephen Curry has scrapped his way into second place on our SCORE Board, undoubtedly one of the proudest achievements of his young career. CJ's hot week also has him on the rise. Turiaf, meanwhile, has stumbled a bit, and now ranks below Anthony Tolliver both by three of our five metrics and in total. And there's even less consensus about Monta's season than ever; PER and Doolittle's WP3K rate him as one of the two most effective players of these ten, while Simple Rating and Win Shares deem him one of the two least effective guys listed here. By the latter system, Monta's 2,073 minutes of court time have resulted in exactly 0.0 Offensive Win Shares... Raja Bell's 23 minutes resulted in 0.1. Ouch.

The overall picture remains the same: Maggette's been really good, George and Hunter have been really bad, everyone else is milling around somewhere in the middle. Curry should only continue to rise, though, as 82games has yet to incorporate the last week's worth of data. By this time next week, he may have distinguished himself as the second most-effective player on the team. Curry probably won't catch Tyreke for Rookie of the Year, as there may not be enough time to close the scoring gap, but second place is now his to lose. And considering how quiet Curry's numbers were through the end of '09, that's saying a helluva lot. It's too early to call the kid a savior, but he's looking pretty damn good.

February 22, 2010

#55: ATL @ GSW 2/21/10

PostThoughts -- Warriors 108, Hawks 104!!!
A belated recap of a beloved game...

What a difference a finish makes. For more than three quarters, this game was a haunting reminder of Warrior flaws. Curry passed poorly; Monta was sloppy and got dominated by a bigger guard; Nellie dumbly kept his foot on the smallball pedal during the traditional third-quarter nightmare. Twelve minutes later, the Warriors have scored their first victory over a plus-.500 team since 2009 and Oracle is a-rockin' like Baron and Jessica Alba were still in the building.

If Curry keeps scoring like that, it won't matter one whit if he sometimes struggles to make plays for other guys. If Monta keeps showing that grit, he'll be able to survive the Joe Johnsons of the world. And if Nellie is willing to extend his creativity in both directions -- for instance, if he's willing to play two centers alongside one another when size is of utmost importance -- he won't be the outright detriment he's so often been lately. None of the Warriors' problems have magically disappeared. This was just one game. But what a game.

Curry has deservedly gotten a ton of praise for his performance, but three guys deserve special mention: Biedrins, Hunter and CJ. The two big men played like two big men, and CJ did some flawless complementary work, once again showing off his newfound flair for driving into coverage.

Tomorrow night brings the Sixers, and a chance to win back-to-back games for the first time since Randolph went down. Let's hope some of this mojo carries over... with this team, it's never a given.

February 20, 2010

Curry vs. Monta #1: Pop Quiz

Curry vs. Monta is sweeping the nation! The Curryers believe that Monta is holding a young man back from greatness; the Montamaniacs contend that Monta's the better player and that the rookie is receiving plaudits he doesn't deserve. Tempers are flaring... bipartisanship seems impossible. Mark Russell is probably composing a killer parody about this conflict as we speak.

It's a complicated situation in the Warrior backcourt, and the numbers don't make things any clearer. To demonstrate, here's a quiz for you folks at home. Without consulting stat sites, see how many of the following questions you can answer correctly. Answers after the jump.

1) The '09-'10 Warriors have outscored their opponents overall during which guard's time on the floor?

2) Which Warrior guard has been the most effective at converting at the rim?

3) Which Warrior guard has materially improved the team's defense this season?

4) Which Warrior guard has a better assist/turnover ratio than Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller and Brandon Jennings?

5) Which Warrior guard has the fewest turnovers compared to the number of positive plays he makes?

6) Which Warrior guard has the highest True Shooting Percentage?

7) Which Warrior guard has scored most effectively late in the shot clock?

8) Which Warrior guard has recorded more steals per personal foul than all but eight other NBA players?

9) Which Warrior guard has accumulated the most Win Shares on a per-minute basis?

10) Which Warrior guard has the 16th-best one-year adjusted plus-minus rating in the entire NBA?

#54: UTA @ GSW 2/19/10

PostThoughts -- Jazz 100, Warriors 89
...and it warn't nearly that close. Brutal game.

Curry was horrible, folks... don’t bother pretending otherwise or trying to blame it on Monta. The Jazz defense ate him alive, and the fact that he was on the floor during a garbage-time run initiated by others doesn’t mean he provided some magical pixie dust. He played losing basketball tonight. Now, that’s okay — it’s just one game. But pretending that Curry’s flaws aren’t flaws is no better than pretending that Monta’s flaws aren’t flaws.

Monta stank too, and clearly shouldn’t have been playing; Maggette doesn’t look right either, and Morrow had his worst game since returning. Biedrins was fantastic, however, and besides Ronny, the bench did an excellent job all around. This was a loss to a very good, intelligent, dangerous team. Again: it’s not that big a deal.

But if you watched this game and came out of it feeling hunky-dory about Don Nelson, you weren’t watching very carefully. Dog is on absolute auto-pilot right now. I watched the Jazz feed of this one for a chuckle, and their announcers sounded embarrassed for the Dubs. They had to do all this awkward tap-dancing around the fact that there’s clearly no coaching going on in Oakland.

I can live with a non-winning team. I liked the Musselman years just fine, as at least we saw the best those teams could do. We haven’t seen the best this current team can do. It might not be very good, but it’s damn well better than this underachieving, directionless, woe-is-me garbage. Get... Nellie... the fuck... gone.

February 18, 2010

Deadline Headlines

1) Antawn Jamison might get a ring! That'd be fantastic. One of the league's truly nice people, and the first good player in the Cohan era to commit to staying in Golden State (for all the good it did him). When the playoffs begin, we are all Ohioans.

2) A million teams did things, the Warriors didn't. And that's just fine. It would've been nice to dump Maggette's contract or get some value for CJ, but it's much nicer to know that Randolph, Biedrins, Monta et al are safe for the time being.

3) That's not to say that this deadline didn't hurt the Warriors a bit. The Kings, Clippers, Grizzlies, Blazers and Rockets -- seeds #8, #9, #11, #12 and #13, in a conference where the Warriors are #14 -- significantly helped their futures this week. Thoughts of competing in the West are more fanciful than ever. Only the Wolves have a darker outlook than the Dubs, and even they could sprint ahead with the right amount of Ricky Rubio Pixie Dust™.

4) Talk of a Mayo-for-Monta offer that the Warriors turned down has been racing around the Oakland-area Internet. As strange as it sounds to say, this is pretty much a non-story. Mayo would neither significantly help nor significantly hurt the Warriors going forward... that trade would be a real lateral shrug of a move, that wouldn't come close to undoing all the ills that Nellie hath wrought. And seeing as Monta is a Memphis pseudo-local, and neither team will be a buyer this summer, it's trade that can easily be revisited in the future. Dubs fans, we have bigger things to worry about.

5) Larry Riley needs to get rid of Raja Bell, ASAP. The Warriors' desire to re-sign him is cute, but he's just not going to extend with a crappy, swing-heavy team... at some point, you have to acknowledge reality and see sunk costs for what they are. It's time to buy the guy out and go fishing in the D-League for another prospect. If you're building for the future, do so honestly.

February 17, 2010

#53: SAC @ GSW 2/17/10

PreThoughts
On a night when most NBA eyes are on either the trade ticker or on lists of '10-'11 cap commitments, two sad-sack and tired teams will do battle by the Bay. The Kings are no strangers to the Oakland faithful, and this won't even be the first game this year that the Warriors face the Kings without Monta available. To be honest, it feels like this game has already happened dozens of times already. The season's really starting to drag.

While thoroughly beatable, Sacramento's won two of three and pushed Boston to the limit just last night. They're not going to exhibit the same curl-up-and-die mentality the Clippers did. To win, the Warriors will not only need Steph Curry's stroke to come back... they'll need his offensive creativity to start making things happen in the halfcourt. They'll also need Biedrins and Turiaf to outproduce the Kings' frontline, which'll require the acquiscence of both Nellie and the zebras. As with so many Warriors games of late, staying out of foul trouble, both on a team and an individual level, will be critical.

Warrior To Watch: you'll inevitably be watching Curry, so remember to keep an eye on Anthony Morrow. Is he simply on a hot streak, or is he starting to find his shot in a sustainable way?

King To Watch: Jon Brockman. Only the Kings' third-best rookie, but a bruiser who'd do the Warriors a world of good. For all their vaunted dips into the D-League and elsewhere, the Warriors can never grab a hold of effective bangers like this guy.

Warriors SCORE Board, 2.17.10

Checking back in with our award-winning, universally beloved, literally perfect rating system...
















Three players are on the rise since last time out. Anthony Morrow's splendid production of late has him hot on Monta's heels; Turiaf is working his way up the rankings, and is now tied with his European Union brother; Tolliver's career night against the Clips has elevated him from the ranks of the other scrubs. On the flip side, Maggette's fall back to earth shows up in the numbers, Biedrins continues to fare horribly by Wins Produced (the Doolittle version) and plus-minus metrics, and Devean George's grumpy old man bit has lost what scant luster it once had.

Bottom line is, these Warriors are all over the map. The five metrics that combine (like VOLTRON) to comprise the SCORE system are only unanimously positive about Corey Maggette... every other player gets panned at least somewhere. WARP ain't feeling no Anthony Morrow; Wins Produced turns up its nose at Biedrins, Randolph and Azubuike; Win Shares wouldn't wipe its ass with Monta Ellis. There's a bizarre lack of consensus about the relative values of these guys, far less consensus than you'd find about the players on other teams.

There are two reasons for this. One is the Warriors' unusually flat talent curve; the gap between their best player and their ninth-best player is smaller than for any other team. The other is the bizarre usage patterns on display in Oakland, where several hyper-efficient scorers rarely touch the ball. These metrics all weigh the importance of usage rate differently, which accounts for a lot of the skew... Win Shares doesn't ding Morrow much for his low shooting frequency, but it drives WARP up the wall. It seems safe to say that this is not the SCORE Board of a properly functioning team. But next time around, maybe we'll examine another roster's performance to clarify that.

February 16, 2010

#52: GSW @ LAL 2/16/10

PostThoughts -- Lakers 104, Warriors 94
The Warriors' sixth road loss in a row (do people realize they haven't beaten a top-28 team on the road since November?) was never really as close as the score would suggest; when Sasha Vujacic and Adam Morrison are on the floor together in the second quarter, you know your opponent isn't taking you very seriously. The Lakers pulled away with ease every time things got interesting. Still, not the worst effort we've seen of late. CJ perked up for the first time in a while, and Morrow continued his strong and surprisingly aggressive play -- in the four games since he returned, he's averaging 21.8 points on .570 shooting, 6.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He's making a dump of Maggette's contract look like even more of a no-brainer than it already was... this guy should be getting consistent starter minutes to round out the year.

Curry was just flat-out bad here, getting eaten alive in the halfcourt and reverting to his silly slappin' ways on D. It's just one game, but then, so was his last one. The jury's still out on his ability to beat a defense that's paying attention to him.

Mercifully, this road trip is complete... the Dubs are already en route to Oakland, and tomorrow they kick off a six-game homestand that features three beatable opponents. Next month won't be kind -- incredibly, fifteen of their sixteen March opponents are .500 or better -- so if the Warriors want to give their fans something to smile about, now's the time.

February 15, 2010

Let's Make A Deal

The Broussardian revelation that the league's best team has interest in Corey Maggette is exciting, to say the least. But here's the thing: a ball-dominant small forward is not exactly the kind of thing the Cavs are lacking. While Maggette is very good at what he does, his skill set doesn't marry all that well with Cleveland's current attack. Sure, he could provide offensive focus when LeBron's off the floor, but considering that LeBron has averaged about 44 minutes per playoff game over the course of his career, do they really need a B-team stud?

The Cavs may like Corey Maggette, but they'd love a big man. As such, the Warriors should offer them one. The Warriors should propose Corey Maggette and Ronny Turiaf for Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Like, now.

I love Ronny Turiaf. Love. He is my dirtiest dog; he is my brother from another mother. But let's be clear: there's not much point in a terrible team holding onto a consummate complementary piece like Ronny Turiaf. Ronny was put on this earth to be the third guy off the bench for a Finals contender, which is exactly what he was before the Warriors got their grubby off-brand paws on him. Ronny Turiaf on a 14-37 team is like a maraschino cherry on top of a cowpie. He can help the good get a bit better; he can't help the bad get good.

If the Warriors traded Maggette and Turiaf for expiring money, their '10-’11 roster would look like this:

Monta Ellis ($11M)
Andris Biedrins ($9M)
Vladimir Radmanovic ($6.9M)
Kelenna Azubuike ($3.4M)
Brandan Wright ($3.4M)
Stephen Curry ($2.9M)
Anthony Randolph ($2.0M)
Anthony Morrow ($1.0M cap hold/qualifying offer)
TOTAL: $39.6M

In other words, the team would have seven promising young players locked in (Monta, Biedrins, Curry, Randolph, ‘Buike, Wright, this summer's draft pick), plus Vlad (every rose has its thorn)… before extending Morrow, the Warriors could fit in a free agent who costs around $10 million. The Dubs could top the MLE, and in this free agency market, that could be worth something. Could it net you a David Lee or a Boozer? Who’s to say — quite possibly not. But it’d be an interesting amount of space in an interesting summer.

So, yeah. If I’m the Warriors, I double down here. I offer Ronny along with Maggette and promise to buy out Z within seconds. This is the trade; this is the moment; this is the window. The Warriors need to try their hardest to make this happen.

February 14, 2010

Golden State's Ten Best Assets

In the spirit of the holiday, and inspired by Tom Ziller's similar rankings at Sactown Royalty... tonight, we talk about how much we love these Warriors of ours. Let's list the ten most valuable players on dem Dubs in order, factoring in production, potential and price.

1. Anthony Randolph ('09-'10: $1.8M | '10-'11: $2.0M | '11-'12: $2.9M | '12-13: RFA)
In this, his age-20 season, Anthony Randolph averaged over 18 points, over 10 rebounds, and over 2 blocked shots per 36 minutes. Since '73-'74 (the first season for which blocks were counted), you know how many other twenty-year-olds have done that? Two. You know who they were? Shaquille O'Neal and Chris Webber. If you're anything other than monstrously excited about this kid, you need to look again... no other Warrior even approaches him in value as a commodity. Don't be stupid, people.

2. Stephen Curry ('09-'10: $2.7M | '10-'11: $2.9M | '11-'12: $3.1M | '12-'13: $4M | '13-'14: RFA)
One could very reasonably make the argument that this ranking is too high. Curry has not yet made it clear that he has the playmaking ability to be an effective NBA point guard, and if he doesn't have that ability, he will never be a truly great player... he doesn't have the size or athleticism to excel at the two on either end. He's been awfully good for a rookie, though, and he's cheap and under team control for a good long while. That's enough to get him up here.

3. Andris Biedrins ('09-'10: $9M | '10-'11: $9M | '11-'12: $9M | '12-'13: $9M | '13-'14: $9M Player Option)
A very good center who'll make under ten million dollars a year through at least 2013. The Warriors do need to convince him to eschew his Latvian commitments and spend the summer working on his free throws, but that should be more than doable.

4. Monta Ellis ('09-'10: $11M | '10-'11: $11M | '11-'12: $11M | '12-'13: $11M | '13-'14: $11M Player Option)
Much more star potential than Biedrins, but much more downside, too... Monta has never been a truly effective NBA player without Baron Davis by his side, and he's a guy that most playoff teams can post up. He'd probably have the edge over Biedrins if their salaries were equal, but they ain't.

5. Brandan Wright ('09-'10: $2.7M | '10-'11: $3.4 M | '11-'12: $4.6 Qualifying Offer or RFA)
If this franchise ever wriggles free of Nellie's Jabba-like stranglehold, someone may notice a second intriguing young power forward on the roster (and no, this one's not Tolliver either). Questions remain about Wright's ability to stay healthy and his ability to play solid man D, but a 22-year-old that compares favorably with LaMarcus Aldridge is nothing to sneeze at. The Warriors are in position to hang onto him long-term if they care to... the '10-'11 season will make their choice clear. By this time next year, Wright will either be higher on this list or off of it entirely.

6. Anthony Morrow ('09-'10: $736K | '10-'11: $1.0 M QO or RFA)
If Wright does fall off the list, whether via injury, trade or ineffectiveness, Morrow will be battling this year's draft pick for the remaining spot in the top five. The Warriors are actually in fairly good bargaining position Morrow-wise, as his extended cold streak basically ensured that he wouldn't put up enough counting stats to earn a big payday. Something like $18M over four years could get it done, and would be money well-spent; Morrow's a more well-rounded player than most seem to think.

7. Ronny Turiaf ('09-'10: $4.1M | '10-'11: $4M | '11-'12: $4.4M Player Option)
Ronny seems to garner more interest around the league than any other Warrior around the deadline, as he'd make a perfect bench big for a contender and comes fairly cheaply. That interest would probably lessen if other teams got a look at his messed-up knee... still, he's a piece that intrigues. Barring a miraculous reversal of Warrior fortunes, Ronny is best considered a trade chip next year. He's not a good bet to exercise the option to stay, no matter how famously he and Biedrins get along.

8. Kelenna Azubuike ('09-'10: $3.1M | '10-'11: $3.4M | '11-'12: UFA)
'Buike can technically opt out this summer, but isn't likely to... he's very likely to jump ship next summer, though, as the Warriors have no leverage over him. A good and intriguing young player, but like Ronny, his value to the Warriors lies in what they can get for him.

9. C.J. Watson ('09-'10: $1.0M | '10-'11: UFA)
Has made it more than clear that he wants to move on, and who can blame him? If he's still a Warrior come Friday, it'll reflect poorly on Larry Riley. This asset is not long for this world.

10. Corey Maggette ('09-'10: $8.9M | '10-'11: $9.6M | '11-'12: $10.3M | '12-'13: $10.9M | '13-'14: UFA)
Ah, the damage an overpay can do. Maggette has been the Warriors' best player by far this season, and is no worse than their third-best even in a sane world. Chop off that fifth year, or two million bucks out of each year, and he's a prize... as it stands, no team will give up anything they want for him. He's barely an asset on the books, but he's still a big asset on the court. And while the Warriors have young 'uns that could fill in for him, maybe it won't be the end of the world if the Warriors have to keep him around for awhie.

February 13, 2010

Golden Sate

Owen has ably put forth diagnoses and prognoses, and what with the formidable SCORE, the Franchise Fixes, and various other useful screeds, I thought it time to take a step back...way back. I ascribe the motivation for this post at least in part to my contempt for NBA All-Star weekend. The following is a theoretical survey of what each Golden State Warrior would be like to eat. Disclaimer: I have not actually tasted the flesh of any of these men.

Kelenna Azubuike
Robust flavor and superior tonus make Azubuike a familiar face. Speaking of which, his face is the best part.

Raja Bell
The elusive Bell is mildly enjoyable sun-dried, but that's about it these days, unfortunately.

Andris Biedrins
This towering bundle of limbs should be high on anyone's list. He's lithe, tan, lean, and almost certainly has a very low free radical count. Any season, any style: the man is delicious.

Stephen Curry
Sweet to the point of cloying, the temptation with Curry is always to eat too much. Should not be given to children more than twice a year.

Monta Ellis
Tough, sinewy, gamey and face-meltingly spicy, Ellis tempts and tortures even the most adventurous taster.

Devean George
George is alternately doughy, grainy, and chewy, with a peanut buttery finish, and he sets off the histamines like you wouldn't believe.

Chris Hunter
Filling, but deeply unsatisfying. Something like horseflesh or bad brisket. If you're chewing on Hunter you've got bigger problems than food.

Corey Maggette
With subtle marbling and tenderness that can't be matched, Maggette is as much a status symbol at this point as a true meal option. Still, in the right circles you'll find him cubed and wrapped in thyme or layered with squab and partridge in a mosaic of autumn game. Just be prepared to pay through the nose.

Anthony Morrow
Morrow is best enjoyed in the preprandial cool of the evening with a glass of JW Black and Perrier. Perhaps the best-kept secret in the NBA harvest, snap some up in August before he's all gone.

Vladimir Radmanovic
Almost impossible to get down, and seemingly rancid at times. Radmanovic has been varyingly described as something akin to bear cooked in nitrogenous loam. Alleged psycho-narcotic properties mean you can find him if you try, but be advised that some roads lead in only one direction.

Anthony Randolph
Stringy and bitter, with hints of truffle, Randolph is an acquired taste, to be sure. For a good first impression, pair with a fresh navel orange and a handful of pine nuts.

Anthony Tolliver
Tolliver is unique on this team in that he tastes absolutely awful, but brings to the table chew profile and mouthfeel nonpareil. Old couples, with their inferior olfactory and gustatory senses, appreciate him more than most.

Ronny Turiaf
With the highest per-serving quantities of iron, fiber and riboflavin of any Warrior, Turiaf is unquestionably the best for you. Even vegetarians have been known to sneak a few bites to minimal erosion of pride.

C.J. Watson
Light and silvery, Watson leaves you feeling fresh and invigorated, almost like you never even ate him. For this reason, he is exceedingly popular with well-heeled American and Brazilian women.

Brandan Wright
There's not a whole lot of meat on this bird, but no matter; if you're after Wright, you're after offal. His heart is excellent, as is his pancreas. I also hear fine things about his pituitary gland.

Don Nelson
There was a time when this whale could feed a nation. Now, alas, the meat is pulpy and sallow. If you have to, head for the small of the back, and marinate for at least a week in tarragon vinegar. Serve cold.

Location, Location, Location

The raddest new stat site on the scene is Hoopdata, which has churned out plenty of good stuff in its five-month existence. And one of their most useful features is their collection of shot location data -- you can see how often and how well various teams shoot from various locations. It's worth examining the Warriors' results in this department, as shot selection is one of the many aspects of the game that the team is badly mishandling.

Let's take the Warriors' shooting results zone by zone... as we go, we'll compare them to the results of the average NBA team. (Due to their fast pace, the Dubs have more total field-goal attempts per game than other teams; to account for this, we'll also list the percentage of field goals taken from each section of the court.)

At The Rim
Average NBA Team: 26.3 of 81.4 shot attempts (32.3%), .607 FG%, 51.3% assisted
Warriors: 25.5 of 85.3 shot attempts (29.9%), .641 FG%, 52.6% assisted
Immediate red flag: The Warriors' .641 FG% near the basket is the third-best in the league, and yet they take a below-average number of their shots from close range. The Dubs simply don't carve out nearly enough easy shots for themselves... more touches for Biedrins would be an obvious remedy here. The Warriors do record assists on an above-average number of field goals made at the rim, which makes sense, as both Monta and Curry have been effective at hitting cutters.

Within 10 Feet
Average NBA Team: 9.2 of 81.4 shot attempts (11.3%), .436 FG%, 39.0% assisted
Warriors: 10.6 of 85.3 shot attempts (12.4%), .441 FG%, 38.7% assisted
The Warriors take close jumpers a bit more often than the average team, but they more or less conform to the usual patterns here, making and assisting these shots at the same rates that most teams do.

10-15 Feet
Average NBA Team: 7.4 of 81.4 shot attempts (9.1%), .398 FG%, 39.8% assisted
Warriors: 6.3 of 85.3 shot attempts (7.4%), .407 FG%, 35.9% assisted
Huzzah! The Warriors actually take fewer midrange jumpers than the average team, despite making them at a presentable clip. Their assist rate on midrange jumpers is low -- not surprising, as many of them come from Maggette, Monta, Curry or CJ spotting up off the dribble -- but who cares? The smart move is to avoid low-percentage shots like these, and good on the Warriors for realizing tha--

February 12, 2010

Trade Deadline: Best-Case Scenario

The best-case scenario is that the Warriors do nothing. We should all be praying for this.

Smart trading follows one simple rule above all others: "buy low, sell high." And while the NBA features no shortage of buy-low candidates -- Ramon Sessions and Tyrus Thomas rank among the most intriguing -- very few Warriors have a higher perceived value than actual value right now. In fact, thanks to health issues and Nellie's incompetence, most Warriors are currently perceived as less valuable than they actually are. The Warriors are more or less unable to sell high.

Monta Ellis? What the guy's doing isn't working in the slightest, and other teams are aware of that... the Warriors have to get Monta Ellis functioning again before they can trade him for real value.

Andris Biedrins? Biedrins is again one of the best rebounders, best shot-blockers and most efficient field-goal scorers in the NBA, and Nellie's claiming he's hurt and is acting annoyed about having to coach the guy. The Warriors would be selling a good 23-year-old center for pennies on the dollar if they traded him right now. Does that sound smart to you?

Corey Maggette? There was a window in which the Warriors could've moved him for value, but with his injury, that window has surely closed. The team should still look to move his contract, but would be better-served to wait till the summer to do it, when other pieces fall into place around the league and his contract starts looking less burdensome by comparison.

Anthony Morrow? He's showing real signs of life for the first time all year... now, when his overall numbers are modest, is no time to trade him.

Stephen Curry? There's actually an interesting argument to be made that NBA teams are too conservative about trading rookies, for fear of the moves blowing up in their faces... the last team that moved a touted rookie in midseason, the '94-'95 Wolves, made out pretty nicely in the Donyell/Gugliotta deal. And if the Warriors could take advantage of Curry's rookie halo and move him for, say, the rights to Ricky Rubio and a dump of Vlad's contract, it might be worthwhile. But barring a monstrous-upside play like that, why move a very good young player who's improving by the month?

Kelenna Azubuike? Brandan Wright? The logic against trading these guys should be obvious. If the addition of Azubuike or Wright would allow a blockbuster deal to go through, then fine, but the Warriors are near no such deal.

Anthony Randolph? Anthony fucking Randolph? You have a 20-year-old player whose three closest comps coming into the year (per Basketball Prospectus) were Josh Smith, Tracy McGrady and Kevin Garnett, whose per-minute production this season has been equalled by only two other twenty-year-olds in the three-point era, and you're thinking about trading that guy?

There are exactly two players that the Warriors might be able to trade for value right now: Ronny Turiaf and C.J. Watson. Ronny would work better as a sweetener in a deal than as a trade chip by his lonesome; it's hard to see the move that'd be worth shipping him out for in the next six days. CJ? Okay, you could trade CJ. A trad sending CJ to the Bulls for their first-round pick, thus widening Chicago's cap space for free agency purposes, continues to look like a sensible move for both sides.

But CJ and only CJ. The Warriors have badly dampened the value of most of their players this season, and would be ill-advised to make deadline moves even if they didn't have an incompetent front office. We fans mustn't hope for deliverance next Thursday, for none will be coming. The best we can hope is that our valuable young pieces weather the storm, and that they'll still be here when Cohan, Riley and Nellie have all been mercifully put out to pasture.

Pair Essentials

Statman Jon Nichols has retired from his excellent blog, presumably for the greener pastures of some franchise or another. He emitted a pretty fun last burst of data for NBA fans to remember him by: how effective teams are with various pairs of their players on the floor. We shall sift through the Warriors' data in our usual fashion, and so's we don't drown, we'll restrict things to the eight guys that matter the most: Biedrins, Morrow, Randolph, CJ, Maggette, Monta, Ronny and Curry. (Nichols posted these charts on January 25th, so these numbers represent each pair's results through the Dubs' first 42 games.)
















First thing to note: Biedrins's results are pretty wacky across the board, and given the small number of minutes he'd played with some of the guys, it's probably not worth taking his numbers seriously. The Warriors are not actually doomed to offensive failure when Biedrins takes the court with Randolph or CJ; they performed well enough when he played with those guys last year.

The most interesting results here involve the divergent patterns in the backcourt. The pairings of Curry with the Warriors' best weapons -- Morrow, Maggette, Randolph, Biedrins --lead to good things for the Warriors' offense. The pairings of Monta with those guys do not... of the six other guys, only Turiaf shows equal results with Monta as he does with Curry. And worrisomely, Monta is Curry's least effective offensive pairing.

February 11, 2010

#51: LAC @ GSW 2/10/10

PreThoughts -- Warriors 132, Clippers 102
Daaaaaamn!

Fantastically fun game, with actively strong play from all six Warriors who got real minutes. I’m not gonna jump on the “trade Monta” bandwagon because of one hot-shooting game, but it sure was nice to see how well the ball moved tonight.

The Warriors' centers need a ton more props than they’ve been getting lately. Biedrins and Turiaf combined for 23 points on 11 shots, 11 boards, 2 blocks, 7 assists, 0 turnovers and a quiet Chris Kaman tonight, and it’s not like this is the first time they’ve combined for elite production in the last couple weeks. These guys are assets. It was great to see Tolliver’s shot finally fall… you really had to feel happy for the guy. And CJ was low-profile but effective in his 48 minutes, which is really hard to do.

Curry was, needless to say, spectacular. There’s no reason to pretend that he played a perfect all-around game, because he didn’t — six turnovers from Curry are every bit as harmful as six turnovers from Monta, and he got beat a good bit on D even before he was trying to avoid fouls — but the things he did well, he did reeeaaaally well. The kid should be getting 15 shots a night, and should be getting the ball in transition situations whenever possible.

The other guy who needs more shots, more minutes, more credit, more everything? Anthony Morrow. For while it’s true that the offense flows better with Monta off the floor, it’s also true that the offense flows better with Morrow on it… he stretches a defense, he passes willingly, and he’s starting to become a bit of a scrapper near the basket. He’s been an enormous factor in these last couple games, and if he keeps rebounding, passing and creating offense like this, things could get really damn interesting around here.

Nellie coached a fine game, for the same reason that he usually coaches better when the Warriors are short-handed: he doesn’t have the leeway to make stupid decisions. When all he’s able to do is play guys at their normal positions for long stretches, he doesn’t get in the way nearly as much with counterproductive mismatches. It’s sad that it takes injuries to stop him from being a terrible coach, but at least something does the trick.

It’ll be very interesting to see what happens when the two big scorers come back after the All-Star break.