January 8, 2010

Warrior Winning Percentages As Of 1/7/10

Per Basketball Prospectus; an explanation of the stat can be found here. C.J.'s recent swoon has pushed him below the .500 mark, leaving us with only two guys who rate as unequivocally effective players.

Anthony Randolph, .632
Corey Maggette, .561
C.J. Watson, .483
Monta Ellis, .482
Stephen Curry, .440
Andris Biedrins, .413
Anthony Morrow, .412
Chris Hunter, .385
Vladimir Radmanovic, .335*
Ronny Turiaf, .328

* combined GSW/CHA stats

BP's stats are not yet sortable, so I can't say this with 100% confidence, but Anthony Randolph's rating almost certainly has him back in the top 25 in basketball. I don't think he's actually that good, but he is a genuinely good player, and one of our best. At this point, when he gets yanked after a mistake or crapped on in the press, all you can do is shake your head and laugh. Here's hoping he survives this circus, by hook or by crook. He deserves far better.

Not many other shocks here, really. Maggette and C.J. have executed quite well all year. Monta's middling showing shouldn't surprise anyone who's been paying attention, and this is actually the highest he's rated in Win % in a good long while; when you gun despite scoring less efficiently than your teammates and turning it over a lot, you're not likely to win either games or statnerd praise. The system is slowly warming to Curry as he shoots more, but is still not particularly impressed, as he doesn't really rate well in anything except three-point-shooting. Keep lettin' it rain, kid. (The same advice could apply to Morrow, who has grown both more tentative and less efficient in recent weeks.)

All of our non-Randolph bigs rate pretty badly thus far, though obviously Biedrins and Turiaf are still getting their feet wet and will be fine (right?!?!?). Vlad's bad, but not this bad... he'll shoot better again eventually, and the diminished role he's settling into should suit him better. Hunter may possibly be this bad, but even if he is, he has his uses. A reedy team like us would do well to have one guy with the bulk and inclination to smack people.

The basic upshot of these ratings, beyond the usual "MORE RANDOLPH PLZ", is that we really need Andris Biedrins to be Andris Biedrins. If he gets back to his usual form (.620+ each of the last two years), we have the rough outlines of a basketball team. Anything less than that, and both our amount and distribution of talent become untenable. The Minnesota game was his best to date, so we should probably be fine. Still... we Worry.

2 comments:

Ethan Sherwood Strauss said...

Amazingly, there may be no regression to the shitty mean for Vlad Rad. I keep hearing that he's 'in a shooting slump.' I wonder, how many shooting slumps last two years? He's rumored to be lazy and his game could just be deteriorating.

doug said...

Biedrins is in the front of my mind these days. Would you believe that he has not made a free throw yet?? He's 0-5.