January 7, 2010

Goals For This Homestand

As depressing as some recent games have been, better days are, more than likely, just around the corner. Why? We're going to one of the most magical, nourishing places on God's green earth, the veritable womb of the world. Oaaaaklandddd. The word just rolls off the tongue.

Much like last year, we've had to suffer through a schedule frontloaded with travel. We've played more road games than any other team, and fewer home games than any other team... not the easiest task for a young squad, particularly one coached by a turkey. Happily, the most brutal part of the schedule is now officially over, and the sailing should smooth dramatically from here. 28 of the remaining 48 games take place in Oracle, the only arena in which we consistently resemble a basketball team. And Friday kicks off our easiest stretch, a seven-game homestand with zero back-to-backs to wrap up the season's first half:

Friday, 1/8 vs. Sacramento
Monday, 1/11 vs. Cleveland
Wednesday, 1/13 vs. Miami
Friday, 1/15 vs. Milwaukee
Monday, 1/18 vs. Chicago
Wednesday, 1/20 vs. Denver
Friday, 1/22 vs. New Jersey

While LeBron will undoubtedly LeBron us, there's no shortage of beatable teams on this list. 4-3 is a more than reasonable goal. 5-2 is doable. 6-1? Probably not, but crazier things have happened; people don't seem to realize how competitive even crappy Warrior teams can be at home. This homestand could do a lot to dispel the clouds around this season. There's a big difference between 10-31 and 16-25.

But a successful homestand won't just
happen. As two brutal losses to the Rockets demonstrated, our Oracle is not powerful enough to counteract terrible coaching and bad execution. Nellie will need to handle things properly to string together some wins. Here are five ways he can tighten up this ship. (In the interests of avoiding monotony, we won't include "less smallball" or "more Randolph" among the five.)

1. More Shots For Stephen Curry
Curry's main value is not in his passing; it's simply not. Yes, I've seen those pretty dishes, too. At some point, the proof's in the pudding, and the pudding (4.4 A/G, 2.5 TO/G, 1.76 A/TO) is screaming "COMBO GUARD". That doesn't have to be a bad thing, though. As the last two games have often, our offense is healthier and more functional when Curry first looks to score. Let's accept the kid for who he seems to be, and use his strengths to our advantage. Speaking of which...

2. Draw Up Plays For Our Marksmen
Right now, the only three-point-shooter that the team is systematically trying to find is Anthony Morrow. It's good that we're looking for him, but we shouldn't be looking for only him. A defense can easily target one outside threat, and Morrow doesn't have the footspeed or athleticism to beat tight pressure very often; plus recently, he's been a little hesitant to pull the trigger, for the first time in his career. And most importantly, our two big scorers make their livings driving to the hoop, and as such could use as much floor spacing as they can get.

So we should also put effort into finding our three other excellent three-point shooters: Curry (.423, 13th in the league), C.J. (.383 career) and Vlad (.379 career). The fact that Vlad can't currently hit water from a rowboat doesn't matter -- he has a green light as long as he's out there. If he's not taking threes and stretching the floor, he's simply not an asset. And frankly, both Monta and Maggette could afford to take a few more threes here and there. I don't like watching Maggette shoot threes, either, but effective floor spacing is worth a few ugly bricks.

3. Ten Minutes Of Rest For Monta Every Night
This shouldn't be a controversial idea. Monta has handled this torrent of minutes admirably, but both he and the team could use a five-minute break from The Monta Show in each half. The kid gets some rest, Maggette gets a brief run as our unquestioned primary scorer, and we stretch the opposing defense with a CJ/Curry backcourt that features two real outside threats. It could also help Monta's ability to slash. This is just anecdotal for now, but it does seem that defenses learn to key into Monta's tendencies over the course of a game -- that they have greater success stopping his slashes in the fourth quarter than they do in the first. Some of this is clearly due to Monta's increased tunnel vision in crunch time, but it may also be that a defense gets gradually better at stopping a guy that's a constant presence on the floor. An interlude of a CJ/Curry threes-heavy tandem could make Monta more unpredictable and effective when he returns.

4. Fewer Fouls
As mentioned here before, we really have to stop slapping people. Steph Curry is 13th in the league in fouls per game, a laughably high number for a point guard; Maggette's 20th in the league, despite only playing 28.5 minutes a night; Randolph and Vlad both foul a lot on a per-minute basis. We allow 28.5 free throws a night, third-most in the league, and one of the easiest ways to improve our defense would be to cut that down. Lineup composition is a variable here -- Maggette would not likely foul as often as he does if he were simply covering opposing threes -- but avoiding fouls also needs to become more of a coaching priority. We need more discipline in this department.

5. One Consistent Starting Lineup
The bigs we've been waiting on are now back; there are no more excuses for lineup instability. Nellie can start games however he likes -- big, small, young, old, doesn't matter. What does matter is consistency. Give these young guys roles they can settle into and focus on for two weeks. Whipping things around every time someone has a good or bad game, like so many other gambits of Nellie's, has not borne much fruit over the last year and a half.

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