GSW @ DEN 1/5/09: PreThoughts

Our return to the Pepsi Center brings us our second straight banged-up opponent: Birdman's out, Chauncey's doubtful, 'Melo's a game-time decision. Denver is not a team that's well-suited to playing without their stars... only two Nuggets that are likely to play tonight, Ty Lawson and Nene, have Win %s above .500, and the team has lost four of five. Still and all, they'll compete, even if the big guns stay holstered. Lawson, J.R. Smith, Afflalo, K-Mart and Nene is enough to beat a team whose head isn't in the game.

We will need extended and productive minutes from our big guys to have a shot tonight; the Nuggets get to the line more than any other team, so discipline will be key. They also profit off turnovers, as we do; we're third in the league in turnover differential, and they're fourth. Expect a good number of steals, and for the team who gets more of them to be in pretty good shape.

I'd expect a fairly good Warriors' effort in this game, coming on the heels of Nellie's dopey whip-cracking as it is. But even given the Nuggets' injuries, winning this one might be a little much to ask. We've lost our last four games in this building, and in general we've continued our nasty years-long habit of falling apart late when on the road. I'd expect a competitive game that nonetheless sends us to 9-24.

Warrior To Watch: Andris Biedrins has not only not had a double-double so far this season, he has not had a single-double: he has not scored ten points or grabbed ten rebounds in any game. He'll be coming off the bench tonight, and it seems like a nice, low-pressure situation, where he won't have to worry about early foul trouble. If he doesn't have his best game of the year thus far, we have essentially no shot of winning.

Nugget To Watch: The Ty Lawson/Steph Curry comparisons are just depressing, so let's say J.R. Smith. The Dubs spent the last couple days engaged in defensive drills, with an emphasis chasing guys who are coming off screens; Smith will gladly put them to the test.