Sins of the Starters

So. Since we last spoke, the Dubs have lost semi-competitive games in Houston and Memphis, snapped their losing streak with a solid performance in Minnesota, and kick-started a new losing streak with a stinker at home against the Spurs. For all the changes in the offseason, these seem a lot like the same old Warriors: an offense that's not as good as it looks, a defense that's every bit as bad as it looks, and team that's going nowhere, and going there rather quickly.

There is still a fairly compelling glass-half-full view. The Dubs have solidly outscored their opponents when David Lee has been on the floor... more to the point, the results of the Curry-Ellis-Wright-Lee-Biedrins quintet have been rather spectacular. In the 138 minutes that the starting lineup has played together, they've outscored their opponents by a mind-boggling 83 points, the equivalent of winning three games by an average score of 121-92. By Basketball Value's adjusted plus-minus (the usual sample-size caveats apply), the Warriors' quintet actually ranks as the fifth-most effective unit in the league, and the second-most effective starting lineup in the league, behind only the Miami variant that features Big Z at the five. That dog'll hunt.

Unfortunately, this half-full glass has a couple cracks in it. For one thing, the starting lineup's stellar results are predicated partly on an offensive excellence that may be sustainable, but partly on a defensive brilliance that isn't. More to the point, however, the Warriors starters create negative externalities that make life even harder for the overmatched backups that succeed them. The starters hurt the team in ways that elude even the most sophisticated plus-minus systems.

The Bench

That 6-2 start was mighty nice, but if the last six games haven't taken the wind out of your sails, your boating license oughtta be revoked. Since David Lee went down with a case of tooth elbow, the Warriors have

- gotten gored by the Bulls in an understandable but ugly road-weary blowout;

- been outscrapped by Milwaukee in the worst Golden State offensive performance in years;

- barely survived a middling Pistons team after a complete second-half collapse;

- been lit up by the Knicks in front of the home faithful;

- gotten stomped by a Lakers team that never even considered leaving cruise control, and

- gone cold in Denver, in another excusable loss that was uglier than it had to be.

Simply put, dem Dubs have been playing some wretched, wretched basketball. The offense is tied for 19th in the league in efficiency; the defense, which had shown early signs of legitimacy, now ranks 26th. The team's -4.7 point differential is significantly worse than last year's. Yes, they're still .500. But this may very well be the least impressive 7-7 team in league history. And given the rough road they have to travel over the next four weeks -- after the holiday, their list of opponents reads "Spurs-Suns-Thunder-Mavs-Spurs-Heat-Jazz" -- the Warriors probably won't be .500 for long.

Others will tell you that better days are coming -- that the return of David Lee will make a huge difference (possible, though he never seemed to help the Knicks' fortunes to any massive degree), that the return of Louis Amundson will help a bit (certainly so), that the schedule will get easier (indeed it will), that "these guys just need time to gel" (possible but unfounded). We're not here to tell you that things won't get better. But we are interested in examining why they've gotten so bad. The nightly disparity in free throws is a big reason. Another is the bench.

Ten Games In: The Starters

For the first time in several years, the Warriors have a clear-cut starting quintet. How are these five fellas doing? Let's examine that question by looking at their per-36 numbers and plus-minus results, again using '09-'10 numbers as a frame of reference. (Data comes courtesy of two of our faves, Basketball Reference and Basketball Value.)

Andris Biedrins

'09-'10 Per 36: 7.8 PTS on 6.5 shots (.561 TS%), 12.2 REB, 2.7 AST, 1.5 TO, 0.9 STL, 2.1 BLK, 5.5 PF

'10-'11 Per 36: 7.9 PTS on 8.0 shots (.474 TS%), 12.7 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.6 TO, 1.4 STL, 1.0 BLK, 4.9 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: -5.67

'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: +12.44

To hear Fitz and Barnett tell it, Beans has come back from a wretched, injured season to regain his earlier high level of performance. The numbers tell a quite different story: this Andris Biedrins is basically last year's model, only with more misses and worse passing.

Now, part of the disconnect is that last year's Beans was a lot more productive than most people thought: an efficient-scoring rebound machine that passes well has its uses, timidity and defensive flaws notwithstanding. But Andris is still gunshy around the basket -- he's currently getting to the line one sixth as often as he did in '08-'09 -- and has had uncharacteristic trouble converting on the few occasions when he's been willing to shoot. His foul rate is not as comically high as last year's, but it's still far too high. Dude's not yet back to his old form, and not particularly close to it, either.

You'd be hard-pressed, however, to say that his issues have been hurting the team's chances thus far. Andris's plus-minus numbers have taken a sharp 180... to hear the early adjusted plus-minus results tell it, Andris now, as he often did in the Baron days, boasts the best on-court/off-court results of any Warrior. That Andris Biedrins is useful is undeniable. That he will reach his 2008 form again is an open question.

Ten Games In: The Team

(Quick programming note: our decreased unemployment has made regular blogging a taller task. Going forward, we're not going to cover every single game. But we will be chiming in on dem Dubs every Monday and Thursday, in our traditional numbers-heavy style, and will single out the occasional game for the microscope. We hope you tune in and join us.)

So. On the one hand, the Warriors are 6-4, and (cue the desperate kind of accounting that crappy teams' fans are reduced to), if the season ended today, they'd nab the sixth seed in the Western Conference. On the other hand, their -1.9 point differential bespeaks a .400 team more than a .600 team. But on an unprecedented and terrifying third hand, their early schedule has been road-heavy and arduous, with one of the season's three big East coast swings already in the books. Maybe a -1.9 differential in these ten games ain't so bad, after all. Or maybe it ain't not so bad. How good are these guys, really?

Let's take a look at the team output thus far, using last year's wretched squad as a reference point. (Next time out, we'll take a look at the season's output on an individual level.)

#1: HOU @ GS 10/27/10

PreThoughts

We Worriers are busy, and them baseballers in orange and black have been consuming what little sports energy we have. But a new Dubs season is upon us, and a fascinating one it should be.

The official Worrier predictions for the year: a 36-46 showing, and frequent mutterings from us and others about Anthony Randolph. These Rockets are tough; this conference is fierce; this offseason may not bear immediate fruit. But several monkeys have been stripped from our collective backs, and who the fuck knows, as they say on Opening Night. Best of luck to us all.

Rocket To Watch: Yao Ming, whose usage patterns will be fascinating.

Warrior To Watch: David Lee, who will provide us some happy memories if he provides any defense.

Whoa, Nellie.

While we Worriers were busy elsewhere, the biggest, gnarliest thorn in this blog's side was removed: Don Nelson jetted home to Maui, after tendering a "resignation" that had a distinct "you're fired, so save face if you like" flavor to it. The organization predictably named Keith Smart as Nellie's successor, with the big man's strong blessing... we'll address Mr. Smart soon enough.

The bones of this particular issue have long since been picked clean, but we'll chime in with a couple belated reactions to Nellie's departure.

* First off, thank the good lord. This team had no prayer of becoming relevant with a head coach on autopilot. The 2010-11 Warriors probably won't be relevant under Smart either, but having a motivated and detail-oriented man at the helm will make a big, big difference. The fact that Lacob, Guber et al realized this is an encouraging data point... it didn't take a rocket scientist to realize Nellie's useful days were done, but the previous regime never figured it out.

* Nellie was fired after a second straight 50+ loss season, after a season that produced several embarrassing NBA records, after alienating over $120 million worth of the roster, after a disgracefully unprofessional performance. He became the league's all-time winningest coach in April, and yet the new ownership regime couldn't even wait to assume ownership to get rid of him. Incredibly, this is the classiest and most amicable parting Nellie has ever had with an NBA franchise.

* Nellie presided over a tumultuous four seasons, with heavy roster turnover, front office conflict and sudden changes in team direction... he was complicit in all of these factors, of course, but they make an overall synopsis of his coaching performance difficult. However, you can pretty decently sum up his second Golden State tenure with a simple pair of statistics.

'06-'10 Warriors (with Baron Davis): 84-62, .575

'06-'10 Warriors (without Baron Davis): 61-121, .335

Nellie used more or less the same strategy throughout this run: go small, go fast, go for steals, and give tons of minutes and leeway to your best offensive player. With a maestro like Baron around, this strategy worked, and worked well. When the Dubs' best offensive player was anyone else -- Jack, Monta, Curry -- the strategy was more or less disastrous. Nellie never bothered to veer from it, and his failure to re-jigger led to an embarrassing two-year finish to his coaching career. The man was long lionized for his ability to adapt. When he stopped adapting, he quickly perished.

* Don Nelson finished his NBA coaching career with a record of 1,335-1063, going 418-445 in Oakland and 917-618 everywhere else. Given the length of his two tenures and the bland failures of the men who served in between them, many Warriors fans have trouble even remembering another coach, and yet when you look at Don Nelson's career, you realize his Golden State years amount to little more than padding. Whatever coaching and team-building greatness the man displayed took place in Milwaukee and Dallas; coaching the Warriors was what Nellie did when he wasn't doing anything important. It's one last painful reminder of this team's irrelevance over the past several decades.

Fare thee well, Nellie. You were often maddening, but rarely boring, and when a little more dust collects on the ugliness of the past two years, we will remember you fondly. Until then, lose our fucking number, you clown.

Carneyvale

Lucky Warrior #13, come on down! We're looking at you, Rodney Carney. And as with so many other Golden State moves this summer, we're seeing something of a mixed bag.

The good news here is pretty straightforward: Carney is a solid commodity as cheap bench pieces go, a useful 26-year-old with some athleticism and upside. His career per-36 numbers -- 13.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists against 1.2 turnovers, a .510 TS% -- scream "slightly below average", and his plus-minus numbers more or less echo that take. He probably is who he is at this point, but he did record career-best marks in rebounding, passing efficiency and free-throw shooting last year, so you could at least plausibly wishcast him into an average player down the road. Even without improvement, the guy should make a good third-string small forward this season.

But the signing of Rodney Carney begs a smack-your-forehead obvious question: Why is the front office worried about the third string when the second string is so horrible? As things stand, the Warriors' B-team includes Jeremy Lin, Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric... this is a team with gaping holes in its second unit, and meaningful patches like Louis Amundson and Earl Watson are still available. Instead of locking those guys in, the Dubs have done what they always seem to do when they have a roster quandary: they've shrugged and grabbed a swingman.

Rodney Carney isn't any sort of problem. But for this team, at this time, he isn't any sort of solution, either. The Warriors need another bench big and another bench guard, and if this signing precludes the acquisitions of guys like Watson and Amundson, it's money very poorly spent.

The Road Not Taken

It's very easy to bag on the Warriors' offseason, as we did yesterday... it's another thing entirely to propose a superior strategy. Pitch positive, as they say in our other line of work. How would we Worriers have handled this summer? We're glad you asked!

First, we would've decided upon a direction for the franchise. And as it happens, that direction would be the same one we advocated eight months ago: rebuilding, with an eye towards competing in 2011-12. There is, and was, no reason to believe that the Warriors could contend for a playoff spot in the upcoming season, so why waste resources trying? Moreover, NBA armageddon looms next summer, as a lockout and extensive re-jiggering of the salary cap structure are more than likely. If you don't have a good team when the mushroom cloud hits, you're best off getting yourself cheap, young and flexible, so you can nab talent from those teams that need to dump salary in a hurry.

A rebuilding mindset would've led to the following moves. (Note: we're not changing the Udoh pick, because that's too easy.)

Warriors Stumble On... 35 Wins

You may remember an article that created a bit of a stir in the Warriors blogosphere a month or so ago... Jeremy Britton, a Dubs fan and Wages of Wins contributor, pointed out that the new-look Warriors projected to be a 50-win team by WP48. Actually, the exact projection he came to was 56.9 wins, a number so outlandish that he didn't even dare mention it in the text of the piece.

In case you couldn't tell, we ain't buying this 50-win talk. Frankly, we ain't buying WP48, either. Kevin Love, a guy on a 15-win team, is the fourth-most effective player in the league? Troy Murphy, a massive detriment, a blight upon the earth, is the twelfth-most effective player in the league? Like fun, Wagers. As Dave Berri's evasve snippiness in the comments section attests, this isn't a system you can really vouch for. All you can do is claim that it's infallible, eyes shut, fingers in your ears, shouting to the heavens. We Worriers aren't statisticians, but we know an echo chamber when we see one.

So we're going to project this team's potential ourselves, using two different tools: the Win Percentage figures over at Basketball Prospectus and the Win Shares figures at Basketball Reference. This'll be some quick and dirty figgerin', and the results won't be the gospel by any means, but we'd take them a lot more seriously than the WP48 results. Why? Every key Warrior, except for Dorell Wright, presided over worse team defense when on the floor than their individual numbers suggest. These two metrics attempt to account for that; WP48 doesn't.

So. First, let's estimate minutes totals for the '09-'10 Warriors.

PG: Stephen Curry (36), Charlie Bell (12)

SG: Monta Ellis (36), Reggie Williams (12)

SF: Dorell Wright (30), Reggie Williams (18)

PF: David Lee (30), Brandan Wright (18)

C: Andris Biedrins (30), David Lee (6), Dan Gadzuric (12)

An Open Letter To Joe Lacob

Greetings, kind sir, and apologies for the dreadfully hackneyed format of this blog post.

Congratulations on your new basketball team! We were delighted to hear of your acquisition (the failure of Larry Ellison to buy the franchise caused no tears in Worrierland), and your hour-long discussion with the Razor and Mr. T was informative and appreciated. It must be a hectic time for you and your partners. You don't even officially own the team yet, and joy-starved Warriors fans risk overburdening you with demands and requests (one of which you've already been kind enough to sound off on).

Our worry-filled cup runneth over... we have no shortage of suggestions, thoughts, gripes and musings. But as your time is limited (and since you'll never actually read this), we will make only one request, one you can fulfill simply by doing nothing.

Do not trade Andris Biedrins.

Not this season, anyway, and certainly not before it. You're hearing a lot of babble about his free-throw shooting and his controversial Latvian interview... your task is to ignore that babble. There's a slam-dunk statistical argument in favor of keeping the guy, but we needn't even resort to that to demonstrate how important Beans's continued presence is. Some general business rules of thumb will do.

1) Never sell low. Trading Andris Biedrins anytime in the near future would qualify. Twelve months ago, he was a 23-year-old coming off of a double-double season, a guy who'd engendered occasional All-Star mutterings outside the Bay Area, a player who was discussed as the centerpiece in deals for Chauncey Billups and Amar'e Stoudemire, among others. Now, thanks in large part to other Warriors employees, he's seen as a wart-ridden goofball. Joe, you didn't become a whateverionnaire by pissing away commodities at the nadir of their value. Biedrins is 24, and on a non-increasing contract... you can stand to wait a while and see if he appreciates.

2) Protect your investments. The above is doubly true because of the summer's key acquisition, the guy who'll earn almost a fifth of what you just paid for this team. David Lee is a guy with many strengths, but "playing center in the NBA" ain't one of them. Alongside a five who protects the rim and cleans up his messes, Lee could be the difference-maker he was paid to be; left to fend for himself in the middle, he's a defensive sieve, and an overall mixed bag at best. The only player on the Warriors roster -- hell, one of the few in the NBA -- that has a chance at complementing David Lee properly is Andris Biedrins. It may not work even with Andris, but it sure as hell won't work without him.

3) Choose the right people. There are rumblings that you may leave Don Nelson on the bench to start the season. While we Worriers quite emphatically wouldn't, there's an argument for ceding to inertia in this case. However, this franchise has hemorrhaged a good number of useful players away in the fat man's name over the years, and while he once provided enough value to make that a worthwhile trade, he no longer provides enough value to justify hemorrhaging away a Twix bar. If you are forced to choose between Andris Biedrins and Don Nelson, please, for the love of fucking fuck, recognize that that choice ain't no choice at all. Andris Biedrins is an imperfect asset; Don Nelson is a noxious sunk cost.

Thanks, Joe. We'd say "good luck", but we're hoping you're an intelligent enough chief executive to not need much of it.

Mr. Lee

The misbegotten Chris Cohan era will be neatly bookended by a pair of 80-million-dollar power forwards. The rookie deal Chris Webber opted out of in 1994 was slated to earn him $84 million over fifteen years, numbers that sound bizarre now for all sorts of reasons. And the signature act of the last-ever Summer of Cohan was the trade for David Lee, who came equipped with a freshly inked six-year, 80-million-dollar contract. If Lee plays out that contract in the Bay Area, he'll end up being paid more money than any player in Warrior history. As such, the guy merits a pretty close look under the statistical magnifying glass.

Here are ten good things about David Lee:

1) He scores often and efficiently. Lee's 20.2 scoring average placed him 15th in the league last year, two slots ahead of Corey Maggette, and one slot behind the dearly departed Stephen Jackson. He shot .545 from the field last season, the ninth-best mark in basketball. His .584 True Shooting Percentage was the lowest of his five-year NBA career, and he still just missed the league's top twenty by a nose.

2) He rebounds like a beast. Lee averaged 11.7 rebounds a night in each of the last two seasons, placing third and fourth in the league for his efforts. The Knicks' pace inflated his numbers, but only by a tad: Lee's 17.9% Rebounding Percentage was the eighth-best mark in 2009-10. His work on the defensive glass is particularly impressive... only Dwight Howard grabbed more defensive boards than David Lee last season.

3) He's becoming an excellent passer. After putting up pedestrian assist totals in his first several seasons, David Lee found religion on the passing front in 2009-10, leading all centers with 3.6 nightly assists. This wasn't mitigated by a boatload of turnovers, either... Lee posted a 1.56 A/TO ratio, well above most big men and comfortably ahead of (ahem) Monta Ellis.

4) He makes his free throws. Lee shot .812 from the charity stripe in '09-'10, the third time in four years he'd topped 81%. A big that can ice free throws late is a valuable thing.

5) He stretches the floor. While he made his name as a banger, David Lee has quietly become a marksman from inside the arc. From 10-15 feet, he hit 49.6% of his shots last year, just a shade below Kobe Bryant... from 16-23 feet, he made 43% of his shots, just a shade below Stephen Curry. Lee hasn't made a three-pointer in an NBA game yet, but given the rate at which he's improved his range, that day isn't far off.

Pargomania...?

For a team that seemed comprised almost exclusively of little guys just four months ago, the Warriors sure ran out of 'em quick. Corey Maggette and Kelenna Azubuike were traded away; the blink-and-you-missed-him Raja Bell signed with the Jazz; the Warriors decided not to match reasonable contract offers to Anthony Morrow and C.J. Watson. All five of these players play small forward or smaller in a sane universe, and their departures stripped the returning non-big depth chart down to Curry, Monta and Reggie Williams. To compensate, the Warriors have added a promising three in Dorell Wright, a charming novelty act in Jeremy Lin, and a pretty useless vet in Charlie Bell. Today, the Dubs added another piece: 31-year-old journeyman Jannero Pargo has agreed to a two-year contract worth $2.4 millon in full.

The way to look at this signing is to ask yourself the following question. Let's say you've just signed a player to an 80-million-dollar contract, thereby signaling that you're serious about competing in the near future. Your cap situation is decent... you aren't likely to sign any max players in the near future, but you're in no danger of triggering the luxury tax, either. In that scenario, which would you rather have?

Lin-demonium!

Say this for the new ownership regime: they ain't apathetic about PR. Recent Harvard grad, native Palo Altan and lifelong Dubs fan Jeremy Lin is now a Warrior, making him the league's first full-blooded Asian-American in over 60 years. Lin is the poster child of a heavily-linked Youtube clip, a raucous GSOM campaign and an e-mail a fan sent to new owner Joe Lacob, an e-mail to which Lacob promptly responded.

Let's start here: no, Jeremy Lin is not going to be as good as C.J. Watson. CJ is an efficient scorer, a tremendous ball-handler, a canny defender... he's an above-average NBA player. DraftExpress deemed Jeremy Lin just the 95th-best prospect in the 2010 draft, for reasons that a good Summer League performance doesn't magically erase. Lin is dreadfully small for the NBA game, and rates as neither an elite shooter nor an elite passer. If the front office thinks Lin can fill CJ's shoes, it's a dumber front office than even the most jaded among us give them credit for.

Now, the front office probably doesn't see Lin as the backup point guard, so much as an end-of-the-bench fan favorite who'll sell a few marginal tickets and get the franchise some positive press. And seen in that light, this is a tremendous signing, a savvy PR move without any real cost. Lin is an intensely likeable and entertaining player, and a guy who may spark new fan interest in the Bay Area's massive Asian-American community. Ain't nothing wrong with a great story.

But let's just hope everybody remembers that it's a story, and that the odds of Lin ever becoming a good NBA player are remote. The Warriors are coming out of a long sojourn in the wilderness, and the last thing they need to do is to fall in love with a narrative that minimizes the importance of wins and losses. Great stories are good; competitive basketball is better. And this team still needs a backup point guard.

See Ya, C.J.

The other half of last season's underrated backcourt bench tandem has just flown the coop. C.J. Watson is Chicago-bound, in a sign-and-trade that nets the Warriors a second-round pick and a trade exception worth $3.5 million or so. The Udoh pick was silly, the Lee trade was heartbreaking, the Morrow loss was needless... but make no mistake, superfriends. This, right here, is the dumbest move of the offseason.

When you factor in his miniscule turnover ratio, his solid scoring and his stellar showings by plus-minus (a team-best +6.7 net plus-minus last season, a +2.47 two-year adjusted plus-minus that places him in the league’s top fifty), it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that C.J. Watson is one of the best backup point guards in basketball. The guy records steals by the bushel without getting called for fouls... he takes tremendous care of the ball... he drives rarely, but with precision. C.J. Watson is a winning player, something that can't be said of many Warriors. And now he's gone.

The Warriors had the money to keep him. They also badly need someone to back up Curry, and to help out at the two if Monta gets hurt and/or Reggie gets called into action at the three (Charlie Bell should not be in any team’s rotation at this point in his career). Simply put, there was no bigger no-brainer this offseason than matching a two-year, $7 million dollar offer to C.J. Watson. I don’t know what the current ownership complexities are, and I don’t really care. This is an absolutely moronic decision, far dumber than letting Morrow go. Teams don’t get better by punting away good players on cheap contracts.

Congrats to C.J., who will probably help a scary-looking Bulls team nudge past the 60-win mark. The Warriors Twitterverse will be far quieter without you, young man, and the win column will be a couple notches emptier, too.

Out Of Ammo

While we were looking elsewhere, the deathbed-ridden front office let Anthony Morrow slip away to the New Jersey Nets, declining to match a three-year $12 million offer that seemed more than reasonable. This was not a crippling error, but it was an error, and it robs the franchise of one of its most likeable and statistically fascinating players.

The two recently departed Anthonys were a delightful study in contrasts. Randolph was all athlete; Morrow is all gym rat. He's not fast, long, strong or explosive, but he worked his way into an NBA career all the same. The speed and precision of his jumper, the running floater that he converts an improbably high percentage of the time... these are testaments to a shit-ton of good old-fashioned hard work. The kid wasn't supposed to get here, and he seems excited and grateful during every second of every game, whether or not he's on the court. No Warrior has ever been easier to root for than Anthony Morrow.

And no NBA player has ever shot like this. If he can keep his accuracy where it's been, sometime in November, Anthony Morrow will officially become the best three-point shooter in NBA history. His career percentage stands at .460... that's the equivalent of a guy shooting friggin' .690 from two-point land. A guy like that will help you win games even if he can't do anything else, and Morrow rebounds his position well and almost never turns it over. His net plus-minus totals in his two Golden State seasons were +3.1 and +4.1, and adjusted plus-minus suggests that warn't no fluke. He's a limited player, but a good one, and he and Courtney Lee will make a dynamite offense/defense combo at the two in New Jersey. Don't be surprised if Morrow sees the postseason before the Warriors do.

The mantle of "hardworking undrafted swingman" now falls to Reggie Williams, who seems poised to carry it well. The upcoming Warriors season should be a better one, but the absence of Anthony Morrow will hurt, both on the stat sheet and in the heart. Fare thee well, marksman.

FREEDOM

Our collective sixteen-year fever is about to break -- Chris Cohan has sold the Golden State Warriors. A lot of fans are up in arms about the specifics of the sale, believing Larry Ellison to be a white knight that Cohan cruelly cast aside. Don't get caught up in that stuff, people. Ellison clearly bungled the negotiations, and is a douchebag besides... plus, the sixth-richest man in the world is not guaranteed success in a league with a salary cap. He shan't be missed.

The new ownership group of Joe Lacob and Peter Guber contains at least one douchebag its own self; if you like showbiz tales, "Hit and Run", the account of Guber and Jon Peters's idiotic demolition of Sony Pictures, will amuse you to no end. But we're getting a hands-off-gasbag vibe from Guber here. Lacob's the key guy, and as a (not-for-long) minority Celtics owner and a longtime Dubs season ticket holder, he passes at least an initial sniff test.

We'll have to see about these new fellas, but the story of the last fella is complete. And for Warriors fans, it's a story with a particularly unhappy ending.

Chris Cohan made out like a bandit here. He bought the team for $119 million, and sold it for $450 million sixteen years later... that is a nice tidy profit. Not all of Cohan's business ventures have panned out, and you certainly can't say he rates well on customer satisfaction, but for his purposes, ownership of the Golden State Warriors was a massive, massive success. He and Rowell soaked a loyal fanbase something fierce.

I don't know that any useful lessons spring from that. Cohan might've had a shorter and less successful reign if fan interest hadn't been so unconditional, but unconditional love is part of what makes the Oracle crowds what they are. Would we all trade the unparalleled quality of Warriors fandom for a better team? Would a 54-28 team playing 80% full arenas be more or less satisfying than the "We Believe" squad? We are all too loss-riddled to know.

All we know is that the games shall continue, and the circle shall turn; a centimillionaire jagoff is catcalled off the stage, and two more centimillionaire jagoffs enter to wild applause. A man that destroyed a movie studio is now being hailed as the savior of a basketball team. If you feel like Charlie Brown running towards another Lucy-held football, you're not the only one. But we may just get that kick off yet, and damn, it'll feel sweet if we do.

Fare thee well, Chris Cohan. You have plagued my leisure time for sixteen years, and I have only the vaguest sense of what you look like.

Hellos: Gadzuric, Bell & Dorell

While Warriorland is seeing its share of activity these days -- the team's sale draws nigh, a marksman departs, an iffy draft pick grows ever iffier -- the tide of roster moves seems to have slowed for the moment. As such, it's a good time to greet the newly acquired Dubs, alphabetically and analytically. We'll stick with the three small-money guys tonight, and address the $80 million man tomorrow.

Charlie Bell
'09-10 Per 36: 10.3 PTS (48.6 TS%), 2.9 REB, 2.3 AST, 1.2 TO, 0.9 STL, 0.3 BLK, 3.0 PF
PER: 7.92 Win %: .334 WS/48: 0.060 2YR Adj. +/-: -1.21

Charlie is, it's safe to say, not the Bell many Warriors fan hoped to see slotted behind Monta this season. He's not entirely bereft of offensive skills -- he makes about 36% of his threes, and passes pretty well for a notional shooting guard -- but he's no kind of threat, and has to excel defensively to justify playing time. And while he's been an excellent defender at points in his career, he's now 31 and struggling with knee issues... plus/minus data doesn't suggest that he helps on that end anymore, either. There's nothing in the statistical record to suggest that he's a viable NBA rotation player. Charlie is salary cap ballast, and nothing more... every minute he gets over a young player is a minute wasted.

Dan Gadzuric
'09-10 Per 36: 10.1 PTS (44.0 TS%), 10.5 REB, 1.4 AST, 1.7 TO, 1.0 STL, 1.5 BLK, 7.2 PF
PER: 10.50 Win %: .408 WS/48: 0.077 2YR Adj. +/-: +1.67

Only a handful of NBA players scored both less often and less efficiently than Charlie Bell last season; scarily enough, Dan Gadzuric was one of them. He's the more useful guy, though, and not just because his contract is expiring. Gadzuric is a horrible offensive player, but a pretty good (if foul-prone) defender, and rebounds his position passably. While he'll be a below-average backup center, he won't be the worst one in the league, and his presence means Andris Biedrins will have a nice long leash with which to rediscover himself.

Dorell Wright
'09-10 Per 36: 12.3 PTS (56.7 TS%), 5.7 REB, 2.2 AST, 1.3 TO, 1.3 STL, 0.8 BLK, 2.3 PF
PER: 14.56 Win %: .502 WS/48: 0.137 2YR Adj. +/-: +6.20

Now this guy can play! Wright doesn't score often, but his efficiency's about average (thanks in large part to a recently-developed three-point shot), and he rebounds well (5.7 REB/36 is actually the worst mark of his career) and passes well for a small forward. Best of all, he's a genuine defensive asset, a guy who creates a lot of positive plays without drawing whistles, and whose plus-minus numbers check out just fine.

The Warriors of recent vintage have been overloaded with guys who 1) are too small for their positions, and 2) score and don't do much else. Dorell Wright's a welcome antidote. He 1) is a 6' 9" 210-pound small forward, and 2) rarely scores, because he's usually too busy doing other stuff. It's heartening that the Warriors have him, and even more heartening that they went to the trouble of going and getting him. His signing is a step away from Nellieball, which is a step in the right direction.

Two Wrights Make This Less Wrong

...maybe I take it back, lame-duck chickenheads. The signing of Dorell Wright to a three-year, $11 million contract is a good one, and helps to answer some of the questions the Lee trade created.

Wright scores efficiently and rarely, he can score from distance (39.5% last year), and he's an actual by-God decent defender, with good length for a three. You could not design a more well-suited small forward for the needs of this team. I love Anthony Morrow like a sharp-shooting brother, but he's not as good as Dorell Wright, and he's not as good of a fit. Best of all, Dorell came cheaply enough so that re-signing CJ still looks like a strong possibility.

It'd be a stretch to call this a masterstroke. Wright is no star, and his arrival doesn't begin to erase the pain of Randolph's departure. But you can at least see a semblance of a plan starting to take shape here. If CJ re-signs, the rotation shakes out thusly:

PG: Stephen Curry, C.J. Watson

SG: Monta Ellis, Charlie Bell

SF: Dorell Wright, Reggie Williams

PF: David Lee, Brandan Wright, Ekpe Udoh

C: Andris Biedrins, Dan Gadzuric

There's more size, health, consistency and (potentially) defense here than there was last year. I don't think it's a playoff team... this lineup screams "38 wins", and far less than that if the league's worst coach manages to stick around another year. And the Warriors will now be spending more money for less upside, which is a ridiculous trade for a bad team. Still, the signing of Dorell Wright fills a hole and stops the bleeding. Good move.

To Morrow: Never Die

To the recently traumatized citizens, the news that the New Jersey Nets have signed Anthony Morrow to a three-year, $12 million offer sheet provides a brief respite from the darkness. We got off easy! In a world where Kyle Korver gets $20 million, giving his fellow marksman $12M is an absolute no-brainer, and it should come as no surprise that the Warriors are expected to...

...not match?!

Trading talent and treasure for an overrated "All-Star" is one thing -- it's stupid, but at least you can make out the simian logic involved. Letting a cheap and valuable commodity go as a result? This would be the dumbest move in a summer that has already boggled the mind. For fuck's sake, you lame-duck chickenheads, match the offer. Do not piss another asset down the toilet.

Goodbyes

Before we give Mr. Lee a closer look, let's take one sorrowful glance at the fellas we just gave up.

I vividly remember Kelenna Azubuike's first game... he was hastily called up the day of the DunMurphy Dump, as the not-yet-Steve-and-Al'ed Warriors needed warm bodies to fill out the bench (they also called up the comically overmatched Renaldo Major, whose only NBA game was one to forget). 'Buike played all forty-eight minutes, scored twenty-eight points and grabbed seven rebounds, and forged a stable career for himself on the spot. With a (large-nostriled) nose for the rim, a three-point shot that ranged between good and great, and a willingness to mix it up on defense and on the boards, 'Buike was a consistently solid player throughout his Warriors tenure, and a hot start to the '09-'10 season suggested he had the potential to be more than solid. A freak knee injury during Brandon Jennings's 55-point outburst changed all that... Azubuike won't be ready in November, and there's no guarantee that he'll ever recover the explosiveness that made him effective. But he gave this franchise 205 games of good lunchpail basketball (career per 36: 15.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 55.7 TS%), and should be remembered as a good Warrior.

It won't be at all difficult to remember Ronny Turiaf. While he only played 2,568 minutes in a Warrior uniform, less than many players log in a single season, Ronny endeared himself to fans and teammates with some fierce rim protection, nifty passing, empassioned towel-waving and impressive hobo-bearding. One of the nicest and most likeable players in the league, Ronny at times risked getting more credit than he deserved for his Warriors efforts... his middling rebounding totals prevented him from being a huge asset. But an asset he was, as the Dubs performed better with him than without him in each of his two seasons in Oakland. The Knicks just got a fabulous bench piece and a ray of Martinique sunshine. Here's hoping they treat him well.

The previous gentlemen may have been my favorite two Warriors. Nevertheless, it is much more painful to say goodbye to Anthony Randolph than to either of them. Neither 'Buike nor Ronny was long for the Bay Area; conversely, the Warriors had control over Randolph for three more seasons, with a strong chance of retaining him for longer than that. 'Buike and Turiaf were fun to watch, but Randolph was downright magnetic: whether he was soaring or crashing, he was a spectacle that commanded your attention. Most importantly, while the former two were complementary pieces, AR was a lottery ticket, the Warrior with the greatest potential of all. Two comparisons will suffice.

Disaster Strikes

UGH.

Okay. Look.

The Warriors' big trade today -- Randolph, Turiaf and Azubuike (plus possibly others?!) for David Lee -- has the contours of a trade that makes sense. If you have a bunch of middling players, the best possible outcome is to trade several of them for a pretty good player. Azubuike and Turiaf, as fond as we Worriers are of them, are the exact kind of short-contract spare parts that should be moved for value. And while we'd personally love to cradle Anthony Randolph to our misery-wracked chests until the end of time, there is an argument for trading a high-upside, high-risk guy for a known commodity.

The problem is, the known commodity that is David Lee is known to... how do we put this politely... not help NBA teams win basketball games.

The 2009-10 New York Knicks were outscored by 4.1 points per 48 minutes when David Lee was on the court, and by 2.8 points per 48 minutes when he wasn't. To reiterate: this year's Knicks team played better without David Lee. The previous year? Same deal: the '08-'09 Knicks were outscored by 3.4 per 48 with Lee, and by only 0.7 per 48 without him. In the two years before that, Lee's net plus-minus was positive, but considering he was subbing for a gravy-addled Eddy Curry, that ain't saying all that much.

The more grizzled Warriors fans among you may remember a gentleman by the name of Troy Murphy. By many production-based metrics, Mr. Murphy is a borderline superstar: Dave Berri's Wins Produced, for example, rate him as one of the league's twenty best players. This, of course, is ridiculous, for Troy Murphy's teams are always bad, especially so when he plays... his gaudy rebounding totals stem from the fact that he selfishly pads his own stats, to the detriment of the Pacers' D and even the team's rebounding.

Well, David Lee is better than Troy Murphy. But the two share the same category: both guys boast gaudy counting stats that exemplify weaknesses as much as strengths. When Lee took the floor for the Knicks in the last couple seasons, they rebounded worse as a team and defended much worse. His individual stats suggest he's a borderline All-Star; his team results suggest that the Knicks might've improved upon their 29-53 record if he'd simply stayed home.

This is the exact type of player that the Warriors don't need. In fact, this is the exact type of player that the Warriors just dumped for Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric. On a shitty roster with only one healthy three and several high-upside young fours, why, exactly, would you dump $30 million worth of Corey Maggette and then trade real talent for $80 million of David Lee?

This is pointless. This is counterproductive. This is ridiculous. This team is now paying $33 million -- about 57% of the salary cap -- for Monta, Biedrins and Lee, three players whose teams failed to win 30 games last year. This is not how you build a team, nor how you sell one. If the Warriors' next owner looks at a trade like this and smiles, then run for the hills, people... a new day will not be dawning anytime soon. This shit is downright shameful.

Tomorrow, we will take one last look at Anthony Randolph, a player who possesses more upside than any current Warrior (yes, Curry too). Next week, we will embark on the ugly process of examining this newly Lee'd and freshly directionless franchise.

Worrying doesn't even begin to cover it at this point. Is www.goldenstatemourners.com available?

Disaster Looms

Do not do this, Warriors. Just don't do it. Do not fucking trade Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike and Ronny Turiaf for David Lee and then sign David Lee to an $80-million deal.

People: call your friends and neighbors, your local representatives, your mail carriers, your travel agents. Sound the alarms... let hell roll through the streets of northern California. May the very skies shudder as we bellow these three truths:

1) The proper move after dumping an overpaid, no-D scorer is not to acquire an even more overpaid no-D scorer.

2) Now is no time to swell the payroll.

3) Rebuilding teams should not punt on Anthony Randolphs.

We're at the edge of a cliff here, folks. Here's hoping LeBron accidentally announces he's joining the Knicks, because this has Webber Dump: The Sequel written all over it.

Stay tuned.

Catchup: The Udoh Pick

We Worriers are not big college basketball fans. Any sport that requires you to get to know an entirely new set of elite players every season is for suckers, and at the risk of Marxing out on the subject, it's hard to get jazzed about a multi-billion-dollar entertainment industry whose performers don't get a dime. Is the first weekend of March Madness fun? Sure. Does that one weekend a great sport make? Not from where we're sittin'. College hoops, no offense, but we're just not that into you.

Another thing we're not into: talent evaluation by online amateurs. Projecting an NBA prospect's potential from afar isn't as patently ridiculous as doing the same for a prospective NFLer or MLBer, but it's still pretty damn ridiculous. It's not that a fan can't speculate about John Wall's ability to play the point or DeMarcus Cousins's personality; it's that far too many people claim certainty on these subjects, when they have no idea what they're talking about. The transition into the world's strongest basketball league is a complicated one, and no, VonteegoDownToKokomo44, you don't know what's going to happen. Give them indignant capital letters a rest.

With all that said, let's do a by-God EXPERT ANALYSIS of the Warriors' latest draft pick!!!

Catchup: The Maggette Trade

Take a breath, young basketball fan. Pull your eyes away from the glitz and glamour of the freshly underway free agency season; divert your thoughts from idle fantasies of superstars and fresh starts and hypothetical 73-win teams. Far below all the churn, far below where even the sunlight can reach, the Golden State Warriors franchise inches along, as unattractive and irrelevant as ever.

This repellent franchise has, however, made a rather interesting excretion in recent weeks. After a throat-clearing cash-netting second-round pick downgrade, the zombie FO sent Corey Maggette (and said downgraded second-rounder) to the Bucks for Dan Gadzuric and Charlie Bell. Maggette is a very good player coming off of a career year... by several metrics, he was one of the 25 most productive players in basketball last year, and he was certainly the most productive player on the Warriors. Gadzuric and Bell are scrubs, and bad ones. Maggette is a favorite of this blog; conversely, players don't get any more boring than Bell and Gadzuric.

Personally, I don't like this trade.

Catchup: The Front Office

While some enjoy speculating about the insanities of the Golden State braintrust, we Worriers don't: it's depressing, and it's generally based on ephemera and the insinuations of those who profit from insinuating. More to the point, there's no party left worth rooting for. When Larry Riley, a replacement-level cipher of a GM, is your standout front office figure, you know you're in the midst of some dark times.

But this regime is (crossed fingers knocking wood) on its last legs, and we should stand ready for the autopsy. And when you're examining a rotting fish, it's best to start with the head. So let's look at what we know and what we think we know.

The Owner

Tim Kawakami has done a crackerjack job of following this stuation on his blog... an entry from June 21st sums up the state of play pretty well. Basically, Chris Cohan started soliciting bids for the franchise in late April, with the help of auctioneer/sports financier extraordinaire Sal Galatioto. Several groups submitted bids in late May. How many groups? Who were these groups? How much did they bid? Thanks to the usual Cohanic blend of secrecy, coyness and just plain bullshit, we don't quite know. But it's reasonable to assume that 1) Larry Ellison, who cleverly allied himself with the current minority owners, is still the guy to beat, 2) Ellison's in no real rush, 3) a group led by 24 Hour Fitness founder Mark Mastrov is still in the picture, and 4) Cohan isn't likely to get the record $400+ million dollar offer he was hoping for. Awww.

Until a sale finalizes (which could be months), the acting basketball folks are in as pure of a lame-duck position as you can find on the current American pro sports landscape. All of them will almost definitely be fired when a new owner takes charge (and thank the good Lord for that)... in the interim, they're tasked with the job of keeping the team looking all shiny and young and affordable. How're they doing with that task?

REBOOT

Jeez... you take a simple sixty-nine-day blogging sabbatical, and your downtrodden NBA franchise goes all squirrelly on you! Among the Warrior stories that have surfaced while we were off on assignment:

- The team is officially on the market, and while it's too early to name a frontrunner or take down the legions of shrill, blacklit anti-Cohan websites, there is what one would call sunlight on the horizon.

- New uniforms, and better ones, too!

- Kelenna Azubuike exercised his option, keeping him in, uh, white and yellow and royal blue.

- Ex-Dub and Nellie favorite Manute Bol passed away, depriving the league of one of its greatest spectacles and greatest people.

- The Warriors traded one of their best players away for garbage...

- ...and made perhaps the most-reviled pick of the 2010 NBA Draft.

What do we make of all this? Well, friends, that's a good question! And one that will be answered in the days and weeks to come. For we Worriers are BACK, and as long-winded as ever. Stay tuned.

Head-Shaking Record-Breaking

The 2009-10 Warriors were not your garden-variety bad team... they set a number of all-time league and franchise records. As you can imagine, most of them aren't the kind of lists you want your name on. Nevertheless, this season will feature in the history books for some time to come. Here are just a few of the marks we saw broken this year.

• We started tracking this story four months ago, and it has indeed come to pass... the '09-'10 Golden State Warriors were the worst-rebounding team in NBA history. Their opponents grabbed 792 more rebounds than they did, an average of 9.66 a game... that disparity just edged the 789-board deficit racked up by the previous record-holder (Nellie's '89-'90 Warriors). The current team played at a slightly slower pace, to boot, so on a percentage basis, the gap is bigger. The '89-'90 Dubs grabbed 44.66% of all possible rebounds. The current crop grabbed only 44.42% of all possible rebounds. Just to reiterate: this team was worse at a core basketball skill than any NBA team has ever been.

• The Warriors fielded more starting lineups than any NBA team ever had, and not by a little, either. Larry Brown claimed this record four years ago -- in his nightmarish season with the Knicks, he used 42 different starting lineups. Nellie and Keith Smart used 49 different starting lineups this season. In fact, in his 72 games on the bench ("at the helm" would be overstating his level of engagement), Nellie used all 49 iterations of those lineups. Nellie did not use a single starting lineup more than three times.

• Monta Ellis recorded the highest Usage Rate by a Warrior in the 33 seasons for which that metric has been calculated, edging Purvis Short's '84-'85 showing.

• Monta's reward for all that gunnin'? A net plus-minus of -11.73, the worst net plus-minus by an NBA starter (50%+ of team's minutes) on record.

• On the bright side, Stephen Curry broke the NBA record for most three-pointers made by a rookie. Who says we've got problems?!?!?!?

2009-10: A Season Punted

The Warriors' thrilling win in Portland last night capped off a 7-5 finish to the season, easily the year's most successful stretch. It was a fun closing run, with big moments and big performances from a number of guys -- in each of the Warriors' final six wins, a different player led the team in scoring. The players remained enthusiastic and chipper throughout the dying months of the season, something many bad teams, and many Warrior teams, have not done. It's hard to remember a group of players as likeable as the current crop, and you may well be feeling pretty good about them right now.

As the glow of those final games fade, however, you'll again be confronted with the cold realities of the team's ineptitude. In a season that was supposed to represent a bounceback from the moped miseries of the yesteryear, the Warriors regressed by three games. Their 26-56 record was tied for the fourth-worst in the league, was the Warriors' worst record since 2001-02, and was the tenth-worst record in the 64-year history of the franchise. (Actually, tied for tenth-worst: the Dubs also went 26-56 in '94-95,the year Chris Webber, Don Nelson and Jim Fitzgerald cruelly morphed into Donyell Marshall, Bob Lanier and Chris Cohan. Let's hope this year doesn't leave scars as lasting.)

This wasn't simply a bad year. This was a horrible year, a disaster, an unmitigated embarrassment. The Warriors got a hard-working and largely healthy year from Monta Ellis, a fabulous, career-best season from Corey Maggette, and an eye-opening rookie turn from Stephen Curry. They still couldn't reach the "heights" of the '08-'09 squad. Why not?

The franchise's various mouthpieces have already made it clear what they want the narrative to be: injuries, with a splash of ref bias. Poor team health was, indeed, a huge issue, and maybe we can chalk that up to pure bad luck (though that's probably a generous assumption). But even if you account for injuries, the Warriors still underperformed. As we've discussed in the past, injuries, even crippling ones, don't have to nuke a team as quickly and thoroughly as they nuked the '09-'10 Warriors. You could blame a 36-46 season on injuries. When you're 26-56, you've still got a lot of 'splainin' to do. As for ref bias -- the Fitz talking point that if Monta had gotten the star calls he deserved, if the league hadn't cheated the Dubs out of a win in Denver in January, the season might've gone a little differently -- it's an excuse that's too pathetic to even merit a debunking. Let's not be children, here.

Was lack of talent an issue? To be sure... the Warriors' talent level is not particularly high. But it's not particularly low, either, and given the energy and hard work displayed by the majority of the roster, it's hard to figure how you only eke out 26 wins in a season. The Pacers have an overrated star and a crap supporting cast around him, and they still managed 32 wins. The Pacers resolutely refused to tank, but then the Warriors didn't tank, either... the Warriors had more wins in their final twelve games than they'd had in their previous thirty games, and they even cost themselves a draft spot or two with a 5-3 record in April. If they weren't talentless, and they didn't tank, how'd they end up on the short list of the worst teams in Warrior history?

#82: GSW @ POR 4/14/10

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 50-31 (t-9th) • Point Differential: +3.4 (t-10th) • Pace: 87.6 (30th)

Off. Efficiency: 110.8 (8th) • eFG: 49.8 (14th) • TO: 13.9 (3rd) • OReb: 28.3 (3rd) • FT/FG: 25.0 (5th)

Def. Efficiency: 106.9 (t-13th) • eFG: 50.1 (17th) • TO: 15.3 (t-14th) • OReb: 25.2 (7th) • FT/FG: 21.9 (t-13th)

PreThoughts

Another lamentable Warriors season ends in the City of Roses tonight, against a playoff team that may have surprisingly little to play for. If the Spurs lose their season-ender to the Mavs (they're currently down by twelve), the Blazers are locked into the sixth seed no matter what happens in Portland tonight. But Nate McMillan ain't the type to phone it in, and while Brandon Roy is sitting out, it's not like the Blazers' cupboard is bare. The Miller/Fernandez/Batum/Aldridge/Camby starting lineup they're likely to resort to doesn't have many holes, and at least two of those guys are much better than any healthy Warrior...this team excels at rebounding, and they very rarely cough up the ball. The Dubs have been playing with impressive (if ill-timed) fire of late, and there's no reason to expect them to start phoning it in just as the curtains close. But this is the second half of a back-to-back, on the road, against a good team that matches up well against them. Don't be surprised if the Dubs can't make this one a thriller.

Warrior To Watch: Stephen Curry. Put some nice finishing touches on that ROY portfolio, young man.

Blazer To Watch: Marcus Camby, just so you can remember what defense and rebounding look like.

#81: UTA @ GSW 4/13/10

Utah Jazz

Record: 52-28 (7th) • Point Differential: +5.5 (3rd) • Pace: 93.7 (9th)

Off. Efficiency: 111.0 (6th) • eFG: 52.6 (4th) • TO: 16.0 (t-23rd) • OReb: 26.8 (14th) • FT/FG: 25.3 (4th)

Def. Efficiency: 105.2 (10th) • eFG: 49.2 (t-12th) • TO: 16.1 (6th) • OReb: 24.7 (5th) • FT/FG: 26.9 (30th)

PreThoughts

The Warriors need a loss to keep pace with the Wizards and Kings in the Suckitude Sweepstakes. Happily, the season's final game in Oracle brings a Utah team that, having won 33 of its last 44 games and with improved playoff seeding to play for, should be more than willing to provide that loss. (If this sounds familiar, well, it should.)

There are few teams that present tougher matchup problems for the Li'l Dubs than these Jazz, but if the Warriors are hell-bent on competing tonight, the Four Factors data above suggests how they might go about doing it. The Jazz are above-average in every component of the game except for two: they turn it over a lot, and they send their opponents to the line more often than any other team. If Curry and Monta are aggressive in the passing lines and Maggette drives early and often, the Warriors could make this a game. Here's hoping they don't.

Warrior To Watch: Stephen Curry, natch. He's averaged 14 points on 12.5 shots and 6.5 assists against 7(!) turnovers in his first two games against the Jazz, and will be looking to excel against them for the first time.

Jazzman To Watch: Deron Williams, a down-ballot MVP candidate who figures to make that a tall order.

#80: OKC @ GSW 4/11/10

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 49-30 (10th) • Point Differential: +3.6 (10th) • Pace: 93.0 (13th)

Off. Efficiency: 108.1 (13th) • eFG: 49.2 (t-19th) • TO: 16.0 (t-23rd) • OReb: 28.5 (3rd) • FT/FG: 26.8 (2nd)

Def. Efficiency: 104.2 (8th) • eFG: 48.2 (4th) • TO: 16.3 (5th) • OReb: 26.6 (t-18th) • FT/FG: 22.7 (17th)

PreThoughts

Losing last night's game took some effort, but this one should be a piece of cake. The Warriors are performing the dreaded road-and-home back-to-back, returning to Oracle to take on a rested Thunder team that's won 25 of their last 34 games; OKC hasn't shown much interest in losing to the Dubs this year, and seeing as a loss would greatly increase their chances of playing the Lakers in the first round, these guys ain't hurtin' for motivation. If the outcome's in doubt when the fourth quarter starts, it'll be a surprise.

Since this is the last time we'll see the Thunder for awhile, it's worth pausing and marveling at their situation. They are, however you care to slice it, one of the ten best teams in basketball. They are the youngest good team in league history. Going into the summer, they'll have eleven players under contract (Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka, Sefalosha, Green, Maynor, Krstic, Collison, B.J. Mullens, D.J. White), two obvious and easily filled needs (a three-point specialist, a big banger), the reigning Coach of the Year, $11.8 million in cap space and five picks in June's draft. It's not simply that the Thunder have a brighter future than any other NBA team -- they have one of the brightest futures any NBA team has ever had. God, it must suck to be a Sonics fan.

Warrior To Watch: Stephen Curry has this distinction nailed down, with a 2010 that just keeps on truckin'. On New Year's Day, he was averaging a mere 11.5 points a game... last night's performance upped his season scoring average to 17.1. However, if he 's looking to increase his ROY chances today, passing, not scoring, is probably the way to do it. Curry's assist/turnover ratio currently sits at 1.92. If he can nudge past Tyreke and over the 2.00 mark, he'll allow voters to promote him as the superior passer and all-around player. The odds are very much against his doing this -- even if he only turns it over once in each of the last three games, he'll need twenty-five total assists to reach 2.00. But the odds have been against a lot of things Curry has already accomplished. At this point, the kid definitely bears Watching.

Thunderer To Watch: James Harden, one of Curry's fellow rookies and one of the most slept-on young players in the league. Don't be fooled by the low minutes (22.7 a night) and ugly field-goal percentage (.395)... this guy is a beast. His per-36 numbers -- 15.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.2 turnovers, 1.7 steals -- reveal the well-roundedness of his game, and thanks to his three-point stroke and propensity to get to the line, his scoring efficiency is actually slightly above the league average. Most importantly, he is the rare rookie that rates as a genuinely good defender. Adjusted plus-minus lists Harden as the seventh-most effective player in all of basketball. He ain't that, but he's damn good, and the Thunder is the rare team that doesn't have to kick itself for having passed up Stephen Curry.

#79: GSW @ LAC 4/10/10

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 27-52 (23rd) • Point Differential: -6.5 (28th) • Pace: 92.4 (16th)

Off. Efficiency: 103.1 (28th) • eFG: 49.0 (t-22nd) • TO: 16.9 (29th) • OReb: 27.2 (11th) • FT/FG: 20.8 (t-24th)

Def. Efficiency: 110.2 (t-22nd) • eFG: 50.9 (21st) • TO: 14.0 (25th) • OReb: 26.2 (t-12th) • FT/FG: 21.5 (t-11th)

PreThoughts

The season's most important game is upon us, and we can only hope that the Warriors have noticed. A top-heavy draft class looms, a scrum of teams are still jockeying for position... both of these teams can help their standing with a loss here tonight. To the vanquished go the spoils.

It won't be an easy task for the Dubs, for as bad as they've been, the Clippers have been much, much worse: by point differential, they're the third-worst team in the league, and the fourth-worst team, Detroit, ain't exactly nipping at their heels. These guys stink on both sides of the ball, and the only thing they do decently is rebound (which makes you wonder if Blake Griffin will really be the panacea most people expect). These guys have lost their last seven games, by an average margin of 14.6 points, to boot. It's pretty hard to bet against them in a suckoff. The Warriors have been known to forget how to play on the road, though, so it could get a little interesting.

The Players To Watch are, of course, the starting point guards. While Stephen Curry surely realizes the upside of a loss here, he also knows that a big finish to the season could push him past Tyreke for Rookie of the Year... don't expect him to go half-speed. You shouldn't expect Baron Davis to go half-speed, either, but only because quarter-speed is more likely. His second year as a Clipper has been healthier and less bricktastic than his first, but his production is still worse than it was in any of his four seasons as a Warrior, and the departure of Mike Dunleavy hasn't perked him up one bit. The Dubs have made tons of mistakes in the last several years, but cutting bait on this guy probably wasn't one of them. At this point, Baron, as much as we all still love him, is no Corey Maggette.

Great Job, Guys! Now Tank.

Rooting for a clueless organization sometimes forces you to root for strange things. I was rooting hard for Nellie to pass Lenny Wilkens, not for his sake -- he's way too damaging of a presence right now for me to care about his legacy, and I don't really think he cared much about the record anyway -- but for the sake of the team's future. A franchise this stupid has enough trouble doing business in a vacuum, let alone in an environment filled with distractions. (The sad irony, of course, is that stupid franchises beget distractions, and thus the bulk of the season has been spent discussing the soap-operatic relationships between key figures, not the horrible product on the court.)

Nellie's record hunt, though ostensibly a positive distraction, was a distraction. Now that it's done, there's at least a chance that the Warriors braintrust will take a glance at the facts on the ground. If they do, they will come to two quick conclusions:

1) Jesus, we suck.

2) Now is no time to stop sucking.

The first point is both obvious and frequently made, but worth reiterating once more: this team is extremely bad, in a way that transcends injuries or luck. There are a number of variables in play here, not all of them reflecting an innate lack of talent: this roster is poorly constructed and execrably coached, and a few savvy trades and more competent on-court guidance could improve the team's results. Nevertheless, there is no reason whatsoever to think that this team has enough talent to compete for a playoff spot in the Western Conference going forward.

Which brings us to the second point, and the only stat line that matters.