The Rich Man's Nellie

The number of Nellie apologists in this world dwindles by the day, but there are still some pretty loud ones. And the refrain they'll most often sing is, "What do you expect? This team is too young, too injured, too low on talent. It's not Nellie's fault we suck -- he's doing the best anyone can do."

Is this possible? Has Nellie's cupboard been so bare that we can't possibly expect more than he's given us for the last year and a half? Is a 38-77 record is actually the best anyone could have possibly managed under the circumstances?

One man, more than any other, demonstrates how ridiculous a notion this is. On October 29th, 2008, Nellie's first game of the post-Baron era, Mike D'Antoni coached his first game for the Knicks. Like Nellie, D'Antoni is an offense-first, sprint-oriented coach. And like Nellie, D'Antoni started the '08-'09 season without the maestro point guard he'd grown accustomed to, and without any accomplished post player through which to direct his offense. (David Lee is, like Biedrins, primarily a screen-and-roll/garbage guy.) D'Antoni has basically been a lame-duck coach since arriving, forced to twiddle his thumbs while Donnie Walsh cuts payroll for this upcoming summer. The Knicks, unlike us, have not been trying to get their coach talent to work with.

In the past year and a half, each coach has had to operate under adverse circumstances; Nellie has coached 115 games, D'Antoni has coached 116. Let's look at the players each coach has had on hand, and the number of games they've played. (Many of these guys have been available for more games than they've played, but trying to account for that will get impossibly thorny.)

Nellie's PGs: C.J. Watson (104), Jamal Crawford (57), Stephen Curry (33)

D'Antoni's PGs: Chris Duhon (113), Toney Douglas (34), Anthony Roberson (23)

Nellie's SGs: Anthony Morrow (98), Monta Ellis (58), Marco Belinelli (42)

D'Antoni's SGs: Nate Robinson (88), Quentin Richardson (72), Larry Hughes (52)

Nellie's SFs: Corey Maggette (83), Kelenna Azubuike (83), Stephen Jackson (68)

D'Antoni's SFs: Wilson Chandler (116), Danilo Gallinari (61)

Nellie's PFs: Anthony Randolph (94), Brandan Wright (39)

D'Antoni's PFs: Al Harrington (102), Jared Jeffries (89), Tim Thomas (36)

Nellie's Cs: Ronny Turiaf (88), Andris Biedrins (70)

D'Antoni's Cs: David Lee (115), Eddy Curry (10)

It shouldn't take more than a cursory glance to realize the massive talent edge Nellie has enjoyed over D'Antoni. That's not to say that Nellie's talent has been great: a lot of his guys have missed some games, his talent skews a bit small and a bit soft, and several of his mainstays -- Jack and Crawford, in particular -- are overrated. But look at D'Antoni's talent. Lee's very good (not much better than Biedrins, but much more available of late), Nate's pretty good (though not as good as Monta), Gallinari's decent (though not as good as people think). After that? Chris Duhon, Wilson Chandler, Quentin Richardson, Jared Jeffries, Larry Hughes... yick. These are journeymen, pure and simple. The fourth-best talent D'Antoni's had on hand for long stretches is Al Harrington. Nellie's had twice the talent D'Antoni has.

What about other factors surrounding the teams? They exist, but if anything they only widen the gap. Our drama with Jack didn't last nearly as long as Marburygate (which actually required D'Antoni to miss practice to testify at a grievance hearing). We've had two midseason trades disrupt our chemistry, but the Knicks have had four; less than four months into his tenure, D'Antoni had already seen over half of his original roster depart via trade or retirement. D'Antoni has had to deal with not one, but two players with serious cardiac problems.

Any way you slice it, D'Antoni has had the much harder job: less talent, less depth, less stability, more melodrama. If D'Antoni's record is as good as Nellie's in this time period, that should put the lie to the idea that Nellie has done the best job possible, right?

Well, D'Antoni's record hasn't been as good. It's been seven-and-a-half games better. In the last fifteen months, Nellie is 38-77... D'Antoni is 46-70. To be fair, we've had the tougher and more road-heavy schedule so far this season, but that only closes the gap by two or three games at the most. In the last fifteen months, D'Antoni's Knicks have been outscored by an average of 2.1 points a game; Nellie's Warriors have been outscored by an average of 4.1 points a game. The Knicks haven't had half our talent or depth, and their performance has been unequivocally better than ours.

How did D'Antoni do it? Through what one might call coaching. He mandated a threes-heavy offense, a strategic move that mitigates offensive crappiness. He pushed a sprint style but never completely forgot about rebounding or defense because of it. And when that sprint style led them to a dismal 3-14 start this year, he switched gears, slowed things down to adapt to the talent at hand. He has been flexible; he has been creative; he has been energetic. As a result, the Knicks have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, in a year where the front office made zero efforts to try to turn them into a contender.

So no, Nellie has not done the best one could do... a similarly-minded coach has gotten better results from a much more challenging situation. Mike D'Antoni is the coach that Don Nelson pretends to be.