January 19, 2010

The Warriors' Dirty Little Secret

After yesterday's win over the Bulls, Don Nelson said of Stephen Curry, "...I don't know any rookie point guards better than him, that I've seen." This was a lie, but an understandable one. For while Stephen Curry is clearly not the best rookie point guard thus far -- Evans has played better, Collison and Holiday have passed better, Lawson and Jennings have done both -- he's an exciting young player who's having his best month. And hey, you gotta support your team, even if you have to fudge things a little bit. Nellie's just acting like he's got the best rookie... nothing wrong with that.

But Nellie made a somewhat odd comment in that same answer:
Tonight I actually played Monta more at the point guard and him at the two, because they were denying Monta on his catches. It was easier if he just brought the ball up and ran the point, which left Curry as the two-guard and he makes open shots. He’s used to playing that role.
This wasn't a lie... Monta did initiate the offense most of the time against Chicago. By my count, the Warriors faced a set Bulls defense eighty different times; eight plays were initiated by Maggette, Biedrins or Martin, twenty-one by Curry and the other fifty-one by Monta. Monta not only ran just about every play in the fourth quarter, but ran more plays than Curry in the first quarter, too, contradicting Nellie's claim that this alignment was purely reactive. And Curry, while he had a helluva game overall, initiated rarely and poorly in the half-court. The twenty-one plays he led included a dribble off his foot out of bounds, a dribble off his foot resulting in a jump ball, a whip underneath that was deflected and very nearly picked off, a drive that he kneed out of bounds and got a lucky call on, and a drive-and-kick to a Bull, with no Warrior within feet of where the pass was aimed. The passing results were pretty stark: Monta had eight assists and two turnovers, Curry had six assists and five turnovers.

Monta definitely played the point yesterday. But it was strange that Nellie thought this was worth noting. For the truth is, Stephen Curry is not only not the best rookie point guard in the NBA, he is not the point guard of the Golden State Warriors. Monta's our point guard, and has been for a while now.

Both guys have been passing and making plays in transition, and Curry has passed well when on the break. But he has not looked comfortable running our half-court offense all year. He passes willingly, but not productively... if he tries something clever, it will fail as likely as not, for he still seems unable to account for the wingspans of NBA defenders. Consequently, the playmaking responsibilities have steadily shifted Monta's way in recent weeks. Who runs screen-and-rolls with Biedrins and Turiaf? Monta. Who works the give-and-go with Maggette? Monta. Who's better at driving and kicking to perimeter shooters? Monta. Thusly, for several weeks now, Monta Ellis has been initiating the majority of our plays, while Stephen Curry has spent an increasing amount of time trying to get open on the perimeter.

Their January passing numbers tell the tale...

Monta Ellis: 6.1 assists, 3.9 turnovers, 1.58 A/TO ratio
Stephen Curry: 4.3 assists, 2.9 turnovers, 1.48 A/TO ratio

Monta is passing more often and more effectively than he has all year. Curry is passing less often and less effectively than he has all year, but has been shooting much more often. This new equilibrium has borne fruit, and our offense has functioned better of late. For Monta, though not a good point guard himself, runs an offense better than Curry does... when you factor in how much more often he has the ball, his passing numbers are more impressive than Curry's. And Stephen Curry makes a much better two than he does a one; freed from the bulk of the playmaking responsibilities, he's been free to let it rain, and is becoming more of an offensive asset by the week. We've been playing a lot better with Monta Ellis as our point guard and Stephen Curry as our shooting guard. It's been a nice development in a dreary season.

Still, somebody should tell Nellie to stop waxing poetic about Stephen Curry's point guard skills. Overhype your players all you want, but you should at least try to get their positions right.

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