January 29, 2010

GSW Advanced Stats Through 1/29/10

Courtesy of the always-lovely Basketball Reference... the ugly compression of the numbers is my doing, not theirs. To mix things up, we'll walk through by stat, not by player. (BBR provides a glossary for these stats here.)

















The players are listed from best to worst in that wacky Player Efficiency Rating all the kids are buzzing about; by that metric, Maggette, Randolph and Monta are the only Warriors to rate as above-average players in significant minutes. Curry and Biedrins are rising in the ranks but still rate a bit below average overall... Ronny, Vlad and the D-Leaguers fare pretty wretchedly here. PER does not quantify defense much at all and may overreward inefficient scoring a bit, so grains of salt are advisable, but if you want to rank the Warriors in terms of effectiveness, you could do a lot worse than this order. Besides the briefly-appearing Azubuike, two Warriors rate as elite by True Shooting Percentage: Maggette, still sixth-best in the league despite his weak recent performances, and Morrow, still 15th-best despite an extended cold streak. If the Warriors want to improve their offense, feeding him frequently upon his return would be a pretty good way to start. Biedrins, Deavan, Curry and CJ rate above the ~.540 league average here, Monta and Randolph are a bit below, everyone else is downright horrible.

No real surprises in Total Rebounding Percentage... Maggette's showing is impressive, but we knew that. Assist Percentage is a bit more interesting, as it confirms that Monta's been a more prolific assister than Curry and that Maggette's been willingly sharing the basketball. Morrow's showing here is strikingly poor. Steal Percentage reveals that the team's most effective thief has been... Devean George? Well-done, old man. Worth noting that CJ grabs steals a tad more often than either Monta or Curry. The top of Block Percentage leaderboard features the folks you'd expect. Maggette's inability to alter shots is striking, as he records blocks less often than any of the guards. Turnover Percentage tells us a number of things: that Ronny's been a mess, that Curry's taken quite poor care of the ball considering how little he's done with it, and that Randolph hasn't been nearly as error-prone on offense as some may think. Devean's aberrantly good showing here is another testament to his veteran savvy.

Usage Percentage, which measures how many plays a guy accounts for, provides another demonstration of the team's current offensive dysfunction. Only seven Warriors have used more than 16% of the team's plays when on the floor; sixteen different Warriors did that last year. Biedrins, CJ and Morrow have all scored well, yet all three are making significantly fewer plays than they did in '08-'09, and all three rate among the league's least impactful players. This is not the sign of a healthy offense. BBR's Offensive and Defensive Ratings tend to be a bit wonkier than the other metrics here, but they're still interesting. You want a high ORtg and a low DRtg. For instance, this metric suggests that a team is likely to score about 118 points per 100 possessions and give up 111 points per 100 when Corey Maggette's on the floor; he rates as a guy who'll help you outscore your opponents. At 106 and 106, Randolph rates as a guy who'll help you fight your opponents to a draw. At 99 and 111, Monta rates as a guy who'll get you into a heap of trouble. That probably overstates the case against Monta, but it's not based on nothing.

Finally, Win Shares, where Corey Maggette is credited with more than a quarter of the meager winning play the team has gotten in all. (You'll note that the total Win Shares add up to 16.9... the Warriors' Pythagorean record is 17-27, but they've underperformed that significantly with their cluelessness in close games.) More interesting than the aggregrate totals here are the rates at which players accumulate Win Shares. If we equalize playing time by looking at Win Shares per 48 minutes (note that this is not the same stat as Dave Berri's Wins Produced Per 48, but will look similar), the key Warriors rate in the following order:

1. Corey Maggette, 0.174
2. Andris Biedrins, 0.115
3. Anthony Randolph, 0.109
4. Anthony Morrow, 0.086
5. CJ Watson, 0.081
6. Stephen Curry, 0.061
7. Monta Ellis, 0.035
8. Ronny Turiaf, 0.031
9. Vladimir Radmanovic, 0.0

While you won't find many Warriors fans who'd argue that Morrow and CJ have been more effective than Curry and Monta, it's a case that can certainly be made: the team has defended better and been more successful when the former two have played. At this point, one shouldn't even have to make the case for Andris Biedrins. A player that rebounds like mad, defends your rim and passes well is an asset, no matter how ugly his game sometimes looks. And if you want a shorthand proof of the inanity of Nellie's coaching this year, this should do: Vlad, who hasn't done enough to merit even a tenth of a Win Share, has played more minutes per game (24.0) than Anthony Randolph (22.7). That is how you murder a season.

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