You'll be forgiven if you haven't noticed. For the most vivid memories of the last couple weeks have come not from the five wins, but from the closest of the seven losses: Monta whizzing by J.R. Smith and drawing a whistle, Anthony Tolliver's dying quail at the end of regulation last night. Some of these near-misses have been extremely painful.
They seem to be taking their toll on Nellie, too; his postgame interview last night was short, and not what you'd call sweet. On some level, you've got to feel for the guy... the NBA's-winningest-coach-to-be has sure had to swallow a lot of close losses lately. But is Nellie simply a victim of the growing pains of a young team? Or is he complicit in our crunch-time struggles?
Let's look at our performance in close games this year. We'll call a game "close" if A) either team has a chance to tie or take the lead at any point in the final two minutes, or B) the game goes to overtime.
Game 1: Rockets 108, Warriors 107 - chance to tie, Morrow's swarmed, forces a 27-footer
Game 9: Bucks 129, Warriors 125 - chance to tie, Morrow forces a 25-footer; Bucks ice it at the line
Game 18: Rockets 111, Warriors 109 - Rockets roars back against our tiny lineup, Brooks wins it at the line
Game 22: Bulls 96, Warriors 91 (OT) - Monta misses a layup in regulation, we go cold in OT
Game 28: Hornets 108, Warriors 102 - down three with 1:50 to go, we miss... CP3 eventually ices it
Game 29: Warriors 132, Suns 127 - success! Nash misses a long three to tie with 0:05 left, Curry hits FTs
Game 30: Warriors 103, Celtics 99 - with 0:04 left, Ray Allen intentionally misses a FT; Monta gets rebound
Game 31: Lakers 124, Warriors 118 - down three with the ball, Ronny misses two FTs; Lakers hit theirs
Game 33: Nuggets 123, Warriors 122 - you probably remember this one
Game 35: Warriors 108, Kings 101 - a cathartic Morrow three gives us a four-point margin we never relinquish
Game 36: Cavs 108, Warriors 105 - down three with 0:05 to go, miscommunication leads to a 34-foot Curry miss
Game 40: Nuggets 123, Warriors 118 - with 0:02 in regulation, Tolliver misses; Monta misses tying FT in OT
Our overall record in close games is 3-9. That's far worse than our 9-19 record in other games; indeed, we are underperforming our Pythagorean won-loss record by three games (having underperformed it by two games last year). We have not won a single close game on the road. And all three of our close wins have entailed our holding onto leads... we have not won a single game where we trailed at any point in the last two minutes. We have not even won a single game where we were tied in the last two minutes.
Let's be clear: this is not just about youth. The Kings are younger than we are; they're 6-10 in close games, they've won close games on the road, they've won close games they were losing (to say the least), and they've equalled their Pythagorean record. The Thunder are younger than we are; they're 6-7 in close games, they've won close games on the road and close games they were losing, and they've equalled their Pythagorean record. The Grizzlies are younger than we are; they're 6-4 in close games, they've won close games on the road and close games they were losing, and they're a game ahead of their Pythagorean record.
This is not just about luck, either. It wasn't luck that kept Kelenna Azubuike, the league's fourth-best three-point shooter last year, on the bench for the final play on Opening Night. It wasn't luck that made us field a Curry-Monta-CJ-Morrow-Maggette lineup -- literally the smallest lineup we were capable of fielding -- in crunch time against the Rockets and Hornets. It wasn't luck that decided Anthony Randolph should sit against the Lakers so Vladimir Radmanovic could defend Kobe Bryant. It wasn't luck that sent Monta Ellis careening towards J.R. Smith, and it wasn't luck that made that game close enough to be blowable in the first place. It wasn't luck that prevented Monta Ellis and Don Nelson from communicating against Cleveland. It hasn't been luck that's made Monta Ellis go the distance more often than every other NBA player combined, leaving his body tired and his attack predictable in the closing moments. And luck certainly hasn't forced us to take either obvious or unmakeable shots every time a game's come down to a single possession.
This is not about a lack of experience, or a lack of compassion from the gods of chance. This is about a lack of preparation. We foul too often, we foul at bad times, we often foul out. We play with untenably small lineups in critical moments, and have often used bad players in the place of good ones. We don't communicate well. We don't have sophisticated plays we can run when we need a basket. We often don't have a play at all... we usually just wing it, to no avail. These young Warriors have shown passion, teamwork and a willingness to learn. And yet, when a game comes down to the wire, they almost invariably lose, and often look like they have no idea what they're supposed to be doing. Why? Because nobody has told taught them what they're supposed to be doing. If luck is the residue of design, it makes sense that we feel unlucky, because we've sure been short on design.
Feel sorry for yourself, feel sorry for the Oracle fans, feel sorry for the players. But no, don't feel sorry for Don Nelson. Because our ineptitude in close games is, above all, a coaching failure. He's being paid five million dollars to help this team win as many games as possible, and he has not shown a particular interest in doing that. If he's no longer up to the challenges of being an NBA head coach, he should retire to Hawaii, with his reputation intact. Bemoaning your losses in close games, when you're the guy who hasn't bothered to teach your team how to win them, should be beneath a man of his intelligence and accomplishments.
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