Our Struggles, Summarized

Why are we 13-29?

There are a number of ways to answer this question. You can point to our rash of injuries; you can point to our inexperience; you can point to Monta's inefficiency; you can point to Nellie's poor coaching. And indeed, all of these explanations help to explain why we fail. But they don't explain how we fail. Put all the individual players and the contextual specifics aside for a moment, and try to think of the Warriors as a single basketball-playing organism. What does this organism do well, and what does it do poorly? By what processes does this organism fall short?

To answer this more fundamental question, we will scrutinize the '09-'10 Warriors using Dean Oliver's Four Factors (with the help of the excellent resources at KnickerBlogger). Oliver delineates four goals for an NBA offense, listed in decreasing importance: 1) shooting efficiently, 2) avoiding turnovers, 3) grabbing offensive rebounds, and 4) getting to the line frequently. Conversely, a defense must strive to 1) force their opponents to shoot poorly, 2) cause turnovers, 3) grab defensive rebounds, and 4) keep their opponents off of the line. By examining these eight vectors, you can get a more or less complete picture of how effective a team is.

And to give this some context, we will compare our current showings to those of the '07-'08 Warriors, the one truly effective team we've fielded in the last sixteen years. Baron's swan song should still be fresh in most fans' minds, and that team's style of play was not much different from the one we currently (try to) use... maybe we'll be able to identify why this team has failed where that team succeeded.

So. How does this Warriors team look through the prism of the Four Factors? And how does it compare to the '07-'08 Warriors, when seen through the same prism? (Numbers in parentheses indicate a team's overall league ranking in a category.)

OFFENSE

Shooting: '07-'08 - 51.1 eFG% (7th) '09-'10 - 50.9 eFG% (9th)

Both the 48-win team and the current one fare well here. The current team is actually more accurate from three-point range and from the field overall, but the '07-'08 team shot many more threes, which is usually a winning strategy in today's NBA.

Turnovers: '07-'08 - 13.3 TO% (3rd) '09-'10 - 15.6 TO% (t-15th)

The current team doesn't fare as badly here as you'd think -- when you correct for pace, they turn it over at a league-average rate -- but they're miles behind Baron's outfit in this department. A couple extra turnovers a game make a big difference, especially when your transition defense is as weak as ours.

Offensive Rebounding: '07-'08 - 27.2 OREB% (12th) '09-'10 - 21.1 OREB% (30th)

Folks may not remember this, but the 48-win team more than held its own on the offensive glass, thanks to yeoman's work by Andris and good help from the guards. Not so this year... we are the worst offensive-rebounding team in the league by a country mile, as only three other teams grab fewer than 24.3% of their misses.

Scoring At The Line: '07-'08 - .208 FT/FG (25th) '09-'10 - .250 FT/FG (6th)

This is the one area where the current team has a big edge, thanks both to more frequent trips to the line (thank you, Corey Maggette) and a better percentage once there.

Offensive Efficiency: '07-'08 - 111.8 (4th) '09-'10 - 106.7 (16th)

When you add it all up, our offense is a good bit worse than it was two years ago. The gap between the two teams is probably less than 5.1 points per 100 plays -- the '07-'08 league was a bit more efficient overall, for reasons I'm unclear on -- but not by much. We actually score with roughly the same efficiency when we get the chance, but by taking worse care of the basketball and being basically invisible on the offensive glass, we get many fewer chances to score than the '07-'08 team did.

DEFENSE

Shooting Defense: '07-'08 - 50.9 eFG% (23rd) '09-'10 - 52.2 eFG% (30th)

Baron's boys didn't force many misses, but the current crop is even worse at it.

Forcing Turnovers: '07-'08 - 17.0 TO% (t-3rd) '09-'10 - 18.0 TO% (1st)

Monta, Curry, CJ et al are actually outstealing their predecessors by a bit.

Defensive Rebounding: '07-'08 - 70.3 DREB% (30th) '09-'10 - 69.2 DREB% (30th)

Terrible then, extra-terrible now.

Limiting Free Throws: '07-'08 - 25.8 FT/FG (25th) '09-'10 - 26.5 (27th)

One might regard this as canceling out the disparity in forcing turnovers... the current guys get more steals, but get whistled more often in the process.

Defensive Efficiency: '07-'08 - 109.5 (23rd) '09-'10 - 110.0 (26th)

This gap is probably bigger than 0.5 points per 100 plays, thanks to the differences in the leagues. The '07-'08 was very soft at the rim, but put up a bit more of a battle than the current squad.

OVERALL

Net '07-'08 Efficiency: +2.3 (13th) Net '09-'10 Efficiency: -3.3 (23rd)

This is how you go from a rock-solid team to a laughingstock: not with a bang, but with a whimper. In 90% of our nightly plays, our production exactly mirrors that of the '07-'08 team. But basketball is a delicate enough equilibrium so that a few extra good or bad plays per game can make an enormous difference. Throw an extra bad pass and get called for an extra travel, grab two fewer offensive rebounds, guard the rim once less often, and bam -- you go from outscoring your opponents by two points per game to being outscored by three points a game.

So how do we undo this regression? Well, it'd be difficult to go back from whence we came... Monta and Curry can't match Baron's brilliance at creating offense without creating turnovers, and we will probably remain fairly soft at the rim. But two simple changes could put us on the road back to par: shooting more threes and competing more on the boards. Indeed, we have being doing more of both lately, and have played our best ball of the air as a result.

The '07-'08 Warriors formula was tenuous, and predicated on the offensive genius of a player we no longer have. Don Nelson has spent too long trying to make that formula work with lesser talents. But a different formula, one involving bigger players, could yield some decent results. Let's hope the lineups stay normal-sized even when all three of our guards are back in uniform.