February 5, 2010

WebWideWorries, February 5th

• Tim Kawakami argues that the Warriors should trade for big-money non-impact talent, while simultaneously pointing out that the Warriors are screwed due largely to their big-money non-impact talent. A classically incoherent column that points out the difficulty of working a contrarian gimmick: you can't simply invert every move made by a stupid team and come out smart. Writ large, Kawakami is of course correct that the franchise is incompetent. But in context, the Warriors' unwillingness to add payroll right now is unequivocally the right decision, and Kawakami just makes himself look silly by pretending otherwise.

Stephen Curry is in the Three-Point Shootout; he and Morrow will both take part in the Rookie/Sophomore Challenge game. In general, I'm very much against the idea that Warriors fans should care about guys playing a part in All-Star Weekend... conflating the team's streak of failure with its streak of All-Star exclusions is a very dangerous mistake to make, and I'd rather not see Morrow play, coming off an injury as he is. But I regard Curry's entry in the Three-Point Shootout as a positive, as it highlights that this is the one thing he's actually been good at. He has the third-highest three-point percentage of the six guys in the contest, and a win is far from impossible.

Kevin Pelton examines Monta Ellis's ineffectiveness, with an in-depth look at his January 15th performance against Milwaukee. Like any analysis based on a single game, it gives an incomplete picture -- Monta's production on both ends has seesawed dramatically over the course of the year -- but it's excellent analysis nonetheless.

• Speaking of Monta: 82games has updated its plus-minus data, now covering every game through Tuesday's loss to Houston. Maggette's net plus-minus is back in the black and Turiaf's is rising. On the flip side, Monta's -12.8 is worse than any NBA starter's in the last seven seasons (though Troy Murphy and Jeff Green are keeping pace with him this year). Also, Andris Biedrins now has a -5.0 net plus-minus that's roughly the inverse of Turiaf's. Both our offense and defense have been a bit less effective with Biedrins on the floor.

• It wouldn't be accurate, however, to say that Biedrins has been some sort of defensive disaster. Our opponents short worse and grab fewer offensive rebounds when Biedrins is on the floor. They commit fewer turnovers, but he grabs a good number of steals for a center, so it's hard to see how that's his fault. Our opponents get to the line a bit more often when he plays, and that is his fault... his foul rate is too high. But let's keep some perspective here, people. Our defense is crappy mainly because we can't protect our glass or our rim... pinning that on the seventh-best defensive rebounder in basketball, whose 4.5% Block Percentage places him just outside of the league's top ten, is a little bit of a stretch. Once Biedrins stops getting whistled so often, he'll revert to being the mild defensive asset he's always been.

• By Dave Berri's estimation, Corey Maggette was the league's most-improved player through the first half of the year. A commenter named Jared points out why his performance probably isn't sustainable... given Maggette's fall to earth in the past two weeks, it's hard to argue with that.

• More Maggetteology: a fun and rousing defense of the man from our friend Sherwood Strauss.

• Finally, Bradford Doolittle examines the most storied positions in NBA history, and points out that both Maggette and Biedrins walk on hallowed ground. By his estimation, the Warriors' center position (Wilt, Nate Thurmond, Robert Parrish) and small forward position (Paul Arizin, Rick Barry, Mullin) are the fifth and sixth most legendary spots in the game, ranking behind only two Celtic positions and two Laker positions. In truth, the more depressing and telling data lies in the full chart he posts at the end of the article: in its 64-year history, the franchise has never had truly historic talent at the four or either guard position. Ironic, given how perimeter-oriented the team has been in recent decades.

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