February 13, 2010

Location, Location, Location

The raddest new stat site on the scene is Hoopdata, which has churned out plenty of good stuff in its five-month existence. And one of their most useful features is their collection of shot location data -- you can see how often and how well various teams shoot from various locations. It's worth examining the Warriors' results in this department, as shot selection is one of the many aspects of the game that the team is badly mishandling.

Let's take the Warriors' shooting results zone by zone... as we go, we'll compare them to the results of the average NBA team. (Due to their fast pace, the Dubs have more total field-goal attempts per game than other teams; to account for this, we'll also list the percentage of field goals taken from each section of the court.)

At The Rim
Average NBA Team: 26.3 of 81.4 shot attempts (32.3%), .607 FG%, 51.3% assisted
Warriors: 25.5 of 85.3 shot attempts (29.9%), .641 FG%, 52.6% assisted
Immediate red flag: The Warriors' .641 FG% near the basket is the third-best in the league, and yet they take a below-average number of their shots from close range. The Dubs simply don't carve out nearly enough easy shots for themselves... more touches for Biedrins would be an obvious remedy here. The Warriors do record assists on an above-average number of field goals made at the rim, which makes sense, as both Monta and Curry have been effective at hitting cutters.

Within 10 Feet
Average NBA Team: 9.2 of 81.4 shot attempts (11.3%), .436 FG%, 39.0% assisted
Warriors: 10.6 of 85.3 shot attempts (12.4%), .441 FG%, 38.7% assisted
The Warriors take close jumpers a bit more often than the average team, but they more or less conform to the usual patterns here, making and assisting these shots at the same rates that most teams do.

10-15 Feet
Average NBA Team: 7.4 of 81.4 shot attempts (9.1%), .398 FG%, 39.8% assisted
Warriors: 6.3 of 85.3 shot attempts (7.4%), .407 FG%, 35.9% assisted
Huzzah! The Warriors actually take fewer midrange jumpers than the average team, despite making them at a presentable clip. Their assist rate on midrange jumpers is low -- not surprising, as many of them come from Maggette, Monta, Curry or CJ spotting up off the dribble -- but who cares? The smart move is to avoid low-percentage shots like these, and good on the Warriors for realizing tha--

16-23 Feet
Average NBA Team: 20.6 of 81.4 shot attempts (25.3%), .396 FG%, 57.0% assisted
Warriors: 25.0 of 85.3 shot attempts (29.3%), .411 FG%, 48.2% assisted
--ew ew ew! The Warriors take tons of long twos, the dumbest shot in basketball. The Warriors' .411 FG% on long twos is a bit above the league average, but when you factor in that players almost never get fouled taking these shots, you realize what a dead loser of a strategy long twos are. The Warriors record assists on such shots more rarely than all but three other teams... many of these shots are just shrugging bricks from guys like Monta and Maggette. Terrible, wrongheaded, inefficient basketball here.

Behind The Arc
Average NBA Team: 17.9 of 81.4 attempts (22.0%), .528 eFG%, 84.3% assisted
Warriors: 17.9 of 85.3 attempts (21.0%), .535 eFG%, 86.2% assisted
The Warriors don't differ much from the norm here -- and that's a problem. If your team is woefully undersized and getting slaughtered on the boards, shooting tons of threes is one of the only ways you can hope to compete. When you've got Anthony Morrow, Stephen Curry and C.J. Watson on board, you'd figure this would be a no-brainer. And yet, the Warriors shoot threes slightly less often than the average team.

The two most efficient types of field-goal attempts are the ones right at the rim and the ones taken from three-point distance. These can be thought of as "smart" shots. The least efficient types are mid-range and long-range twos, taken from 10-23 feet... these can be thought of as "dumb" shots. (Shots from ten feet and in are neither efficient nor wildly inefficient... we could call these "eh" shots.) Smarter offensive teams take more "smart" shots... dumber offensive teams will take more "dumb" shots. Smart shot/dumb shot ratio, in other words, is a decent proxy for a team's offensive IQ. The Magic take 51.4 "smart" shots and 18.4 "dumb" shots... their smart shot/dumb shot ratio is 51.4 / 18.4 = 2.79. This is the highest SsDsR in the NBA.

Where do the Warriors rank?

1. Orlando, 2.79
2. Houston, 2.42
3. New York, 2.34
4. Charlotte, 2.18
5. Sacramento, 1.93
6. Cleveland, 1.88
7. Denver, 1.82
8. Boston, 1.82
9. Phoenix, 1.78
10. LA Lakers, 1.67
11. Utah, 1.61
12. New Orleans, 1.61
13. San Antonio, 1.60
14. Atlanta, 1.60
15. LA Clippers, 1.59
16. Indiana, 1.58
17. Milwaukee, 1.56
18. Memphis, 1.55
19. Toronto, 1.46
20. New Jersey, 1.40
21. Golden State, 1.39
22. Oklahoma City, 1.37
23. Dallas, 1.32
24. Detroit, 1.32
25. Philadelphia, 1.29
26. Portland, 1.28
27. Miami, 1.21
28. Minnesota, 1.21
29. Washington, 1.15
30. Chicago, 1.07

The Warriors have one of the ten dumbest shot selections in the league. They're paying Don Nelson five million dollars for this?

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