Is Nellie The NBA's Worst Coach?

It's impossible to say. There are many aspects of coaching that we fans never see; some strategic subtleties will escape even the savvier viewers among us; our evaluations of the tools each coach has on hand -- players and their various skills -- are inevitably incomplete. You can't say with full confidence that Don Nelson's incompetence has exceeded that of, say, Kurt Rambis. You can't prove that Nellie has been the worst coach in the league so far this season.

But you can make a pretty damn good case.

Exhibit A. In third quarters, coaches make strategic adjustments based on the first half of action... on average, the third is perhaps the most coaching-intensive quarter in an NBA game. Opponents are outscoring Don Nelson's Warriors by an average of 3.8 points in every third quarter. This is not only the worst showing by any team in the third quarter, it is the worst showing by any team in any quarter... not even the Nets fare as badly in any quarter as the Warriors do in the third. When strategy becomes paramount, Nellie's teams immediately fall apart.

Exhibit B. The Warriors have underperformed their Pythagorean record by three games, thanks in large part to their incompetence in close contests. The Warriors are now 3-10 in games where either team has a chance to tie or take the lead in the final two minutes. Youth alone does not explain this, as most of the league's other young teams -- the Grizzlies, the Thunder, the Kings -- have fared far better in close games.

Exhibit C. Don Nelson's offensive weapons include Andris Biedrins, who is on pace to become the most efficient field-goal scorer in NBA history, and Anthony Morrow, who is on pace to become the most efficient three-point shooter in NBA history. Both players are shooting significantly less often this season, thanks to an offense that excludes them.

Exhibit D. In Andris Biedrins and Anthony Randolph, Don Nelson has two of the league's forty best rebounders. He has had at least one of the two available in all but two games to date, and had both of them available in ten games. Nevertheless, thanks to underplaying of these two (23.9 minutes per night for Andris, 22.7 for Randolph), Nellie has the '09-'10 Warriors on pace to be the second-worst rebounding team in NBA history.

Exhibit E. Don Nelson has given more nightly minutes to Vladimir Radmanovic (23.0) than to Anthony Randolph (22.7). He has given more nightly minutes to Cartier Martin (27.6) than to Kelenna Azubuike (25.7). He has given more nightly minutes to Anthony Tolliver (26.8) than to Andris Biedrins (24.0). He has given more nightly minutes to Coby Karl (31.0) than to Corey Maggette (30.8).

Exhibit F. An excess of minutes, shots and offensive freedom has helped Monta Ellis post the most ineffective prolific season by any NBA player in recent memory. Monta is also playing more minutes per night than any player on a terrible team has in more than a decade.

Exhibit G. Monta Ellis is leading the league in turnovers. Stephen Curry is averaging 3.4 fouls per night, by far the most of any guard and 10th in the NBA overall.

Exhibit H. For all the talk of injuries decimating the Warriors, they've gotten 137 out of a possible 141 games from their top perimeter trio of Curry, Monta and Maggette. Combined, these three have missed less than half as many games as Nellie himself.

Exhibit I. More than 14% of the time, Nellie's Warriors have featured C.J. Watson, Stephen Curry or Monta Ellis on the court simultaneously. These small lineups have been outscored by almost ten points per 48 minutes.

Exhibit J. Only one quintet of Warriors has been on the floor for more than 100 total minutes so far this year. That quintet featured both Vladimir Radmanovic and Mikki Moore, and was outscored by a much faster pace than even this year's Nets.

To sum up: if Don Nelson isn't the worst coach in the NBA, it's not for lack of trying.