It's a complicated situation in the Warrior backcourt, and the numbers don't make things any clearer. To demonstrate, here's a quiz for you folks at home. Without consulting stat sites, see how many of the following questions you can answer correctly. Answers after the jump.
3) Which Warrior guard has materially improved the team's defense this season?
1) The '09-'10 Warriors have outscored their opponents overall during which guard's time on the floor?
2) Which Warrior guard has been the most effective at converting at the rim?
4) Which Warrior guard has a better assist/turnover ratio than Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller and Brandon Jennings?
5) Which Warrior guard has the fewest turnovers compared to the number of positive plays he makes?
6) Which Warrior guard has the highest True Shooting Percentage?
7) Which Warrior guard has scored most effectively late in the shot clock?
8) Which Warrior guard has recorded more steals per personal foul than all but eight other NBA players?
9) Which Warrior guard has accumulated the most Win Shares on a per-minute basis?
10) Which Warrior guard has the 16th-best one-year adjusted plus-minus rating in the entire NBA?
If you answered...
1. C.J. Watson
2. C.J. Watson
3. C.J. Watson
4. C.J. Watson
5. C.J. Watson
6. C.J. Watson
7. C.J. Watson
8. C.J. Watson
9. C.J. Watson
10. C.J. Watson
...then give yourself a gold star.
Does this mean that C.J. Watson is the best guard on the Warriors? Of course not. But the fact that Monta and Curry haven't even unequivocally distanced themselves from their backup should give you an idea of just how dysfunctional things have been around here. This kind of thing doesn't happen on good teams.
This also doesn't happen with really good players. If either Curry or Monta was ready to be an alpha dog, there'd be more evidence of it in their numbers, no matter who they did or didn't play with. Right now, that evidence just isn't there. Curry rates as an offensive asset whose defense negates a lot of that value; he hasn't been any sort of game-changer. Monta has been a game-changer, but for the worse. Of the three healthy guards under contract, only C.J. has been an asset on both ends. (Actually, Morrow has too, but he's mainly played the three this season.)
Curry will get better, and Monta will probably re-discover some of his old effectiveness once Nellie's finally put out to pasture. But as we delve into the strengths and weaknesses of these two players, and try to discern whether or not they're capable of being effective alongside each other, we should start with one depressing truth in mind: it's possible that neither of these guys is a solution to our woes. They're the two highest minute-getters on the third-worst team in baketball... we can't safely assume that either guy can lead us to the playoffs, let alone the promised land.
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6 comments:
Nice post. It will be intresting to see what the Warriors do in the offseason with Watson. He is a restricted free agent and Nelson seems to like him and at the same time its obvious that Watson would either be on a legit NBA talent team that competes for the playoffs or have a chance to start (not going to happen here, without injuries).
Yep. It'd frankly be worth going a little above and beyond to try to keep him... I wouldn't hesitate to give him $2.5 million a year for three years, as I think he's worth that much and would be thoroughly tradeable at that level. He's a nice guy to have. But even that amount might not be enough to keep him here. Certainly can't blame the guy for wanting to move on.
I'm probably the biggest Watson fan, and it is unfair how much attention Curry and Ellis getting while Watson is better player than both of them. He is not flashy and not overhyped, but he can certainly score with the best and and getting the the credit he deserves.
Thank you for this post!
I truly believe that if Watson was allowed to start as point guard for our squad and Ellis was playing shooting guard we would have had a lot better season.
Curry should be a backup, he is not athletic enough to compete against anyone except the bottom teams. He is still a rookie and makes too many silly mistakes to justify his playing time. Play Curry off the bench and put CJ in the starting lineup.
C.J. wanted to go to Orlando, but it didn't work out. I doubt he'd want to stay on a crappy team that won't give him consistent minutes.
Still, I can't believe how hard everyone is on Curry. I understood everyone's bitterness toward Mike Dunleavy, but Curry's the best Warrior rookie since Joe Smith.
Yes, he turns the ball over too much, and no, he isn't as fast as Chris Paul. But he's one of the smartest players the Warriors have had in recent years, as well as one of their best shooters. And maybe if he had a coach who didn't play him 45 mpg and ran some actual plays, Curry would play better defense and cut down on the turnovers.
[stunned silence]
Watson is a good BACKUP guard. He's not good enough to start and hes way too streaky. He will never be a true PG, although curry prob isn
t either.
This is a bit too much hype, he could be a quality bench/role player.
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