Ten Games In: The Starters

For the first time in several years, the Warriors have a clear-cut starting quintet. How are these five fellas doing? Let's examine that question by looking at their per-36 numbers and plus-minus results, again using '09-'10 numbers as a frame of reference. (Data comes courtesy of two of our faves, Basketball Reference and Basketball Value.)

Andris Biedrins

'09-'10 Per 36: 7.8 PTS on 6.5 shots (.561 TS%), 12.2 REB, 2.7 AST, 1.5 TO, 0.9 STL, 2.1 BLK, 5.5 PF

'10-'11 Per 36: 7.9 PTS on 8.0 shots (.474 TS%), 12.7 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.6 TO, 1.4 STL, 1.0 BLK, 4.9 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: -5.67

'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: +12.44

To hear Fitz and Barnett tell it, Beans has come back from a wretched, injured season to regain his earlier high level of performance. The numbers tell a quite different story: this Andris Biedrins is basically last year's model, only with more misses and worse passing.

Now, part of the disconnect is that last year's Beans was a lot more productive than most people thought: an efficient-scoring rebound machine that passes well has its uses, timidity and defensive flaws notwithstanding. But Andris is still gunshy around the basket -- he's currently getting to the line one sixth as often as he did in '08-'09 -- and has had uncharacteristic trouble converting on the few occasions when he's been willing to shoot. His foul rate is not as comically high as last year's, but it's still far too high. Dude's not yet back to his old form, and not particularly close to it, either.

You'd be hard-pressed, however, to say that his issues have been hurting the team's chances thus far. Andris's plus-minus numbers have taken a sharp 180... to hear the early adjusted plus-minus results tell it, Andris now, as he often did in the Baron days, boasts the best on-court/off-court results of any Warrior. That Andris Biedrins is useful is undeniable. That he will reach his 2008 form again is an open question.

Stephen Curry

'09-'10 Per 36: 17.4 PTS on 14.2 shots (.568 TS%), 4.4 REB, 5.9 AST, 3.0 TO, 1.9 STL, 0.2 BLK, 3.1 PF

'10-'11 Per 36: 20.5 PTS on 16.9 shots (.547 TS%), 3.3 REB, 6.8 AST, 3.7 TO, 2.5 STL, 0.4 BLK, 3.7 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: +2.03

'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: +10.93

In the scheme of things, the Warriors have to be delighted with this guy. Based on expectations, however, it's hard to see his season so far as anything other than a mild disappointment. Curry's scoring a bit more often than he did on the whole last season, but less often than he did once he got in gear in the season's second half. His scoring efficiency is down a bit, thanks largely to a dip in his three-point shooting; he's grabbing rebounds only 75% as often. His assists have taken an uptick, but the uptick in turnovers more than counteracts that... Curry's 1.82 assist/turnover ratio ranks 33rd amongst 44 eligible point guards. It's officially time to shelve the Steve Nash comparisons.

Still and all, Curry's a strong offensive player, and the Warriors' attack hums when he's in there. Defense is where the trouble lies. Steph's grabbing more steals than ever and has even blocked a couple extra shots, but he negates all that fun by committing 3.5 fouls a night. Stephen Curry is committing fouls more often than Emeka Okafor, Serge Ibaka and Samuel Dalembert. Stephen Curry is slapping the shit out of people.

If you take only one thing from this benighted blog of ours, let it be this: you can not compete for long if your guards are racking up whistles on the perimeter. Your quarterly allotment of fouls is best spent near the basket, where poor free-throw shooters are attempting high-leverage shots... drawing a whistle on a pick and roll behind the arc is a mistake and a waste. Thanks in large part to the foul-happiness of their point guard, the Warriors let their opponent reach the penalty early and often. That's not a sustainable formula for success, and let's hope that a player with Curry's intelligence can figure that out.

Monta Ellis

'09-'10 Per 36: 22.2 PTS on 19.1 shots (.517 TS%), 3.5 REB, 4.6 AST, 3.3 TO, 1.9 STL, 0.3 BLK, 2.6 PF

'10-'11 Per 36: 23.9 PTS on 17.7 shots (.584 TS%), 3.8 REB, 4.5 AST, 3.2 TO, 2.4 STL, 0.2 BLK, 2.7 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: -11.52

'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: -6.69

No disappointments here -- Monta is posting a strong bounceback campaign, predicated largely on better shooting inside the arc. His passing numbers haven't improved any, but they're still a bit above average for a two guard. Of note: Monta's foul totals may look good compared to Curry's, but he's still fifth among NBA twos in fouls per game, and he'd also be well-served to pull back a tad.

Monta's plus-minus showings continue to be shockingly bad, and the defensive end is the reason why... the Warriors have defended a lot better with him on the bench. The sample size merits caution, but based on the numbers and the games, it's hard to shake the idea that Monta coasts at times defensively when his minutes are huge. A little more Reggie Williams may be in order here, to ensure that Monta's playing at full tilt on both ends when he's out there.

David Lee

'09-'10 Per 36: 19.6 PTS on 15.0 shots (.584 TS%), 11.3 REB, 3.5 AST, 2.3 TO, 1.0 STL, 0.5 BLK, 3.1 PF

'10-'11 Per 36: 14.8 PTS on 12.6 shots (.511 TS%), 11.7 REB, 2.9 AST, 2.9 TO, 1.2 STL, 0.3 BLK, 2.5 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: -1.54

'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: +13.96

Lee's struggles to date have been well-documented... he seems to have lost a lot of his scoring efficiency to Monta in a locker-room card game, and his sharply improved passing numbers from last season haven't carried over thus far. Still, as with Biedrins, this is a guy who gets you 11-12 boards per 36 and passes willingly, and there's a lot of value in that. Defensively, Lee has been stinking up the joint, merely slowing the bleeding with some quick hands. If you've never seen an NBA team whose starting point guard averages more fouls and more blocked shots than its starting power forward... well, you have now.

There's some air in Lee's plus/minus numbers, as the Bulls game he missed was bound to be a fatigue-addled blowout with or without him. Still, the Warriors' offense has sung with him on the floor, and he may indeed help on that end more than he hurts on the other. Worth eighty million and Anthony Randolph? Jury's still out. Worth having? No question.

Dorell Wright

'09-'10 Per 36: 12.3 PTS on 10.1 shots (.567 TS%), 5.7 REB, 2.2 AST, 1.3 TO, 1.3 STL, 0.8 BLK, 2.3 PF

'10-'11 Per 36: 14.5 PTS on 12.6 shots (.539 TS%), 5.1 REB, 2.5 AST, 1.9 TO, 1.1 STL, 0.9 BLK, 2.0 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: -0.90

'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: +4.03

This guy is fun. And for all the talk of his breakout year, it's worth noting that Dorell is just doing what he always does, albeit in bigger minutes. Maybe he's been fluky-hot from behind the arc, but if history's any indication, he's also been fluky-cold inside of it. His rebounding rate has been in a gentle decline for years now, but he's still around league-average for the position... he passes better than your average three, and his defensive numbers are strong across the board.

Dorell's plus-minus numbers aren't nearly as good as you'd think, with a horrible night in Milwaukee doing him no favors. His on-court/off-court numbers aren't Monta-bad, but they lag far behind those of the other starters, and early adjustments paint him as an overall mixed bag at best. It will be interesting to see what the upcoming homestand does to his numbers.

Next time out, we look at the bench! (Sneak preview: the bench sucks!)