So. On the one hand, the Warriors are 6-4, and (cue the desperate kind of accounting that crappy teams' fans are reduced to), if the season ended today, they'd nab the sixth seed in the Western Conference. On the other hand, their -1.9 point differential bespeaks a .400 team more than a .600 team. But on an unprecedented and terrifying third hand, their early schedule has been road-heavy and arduous, with one of the season's three big East coast swings already in the books. Maybe a -1.9 differential in these ten games ain't so bad, after all. Or maybe it ain't not so bad. How good are these guys, really?
Let's take a look at the team output thus far, using last year's wretched squad as a reference point. (Next time out, we'll take a look at the season's output on an individual level.)
'10-'11 Pace: 96.9 possessions per game (4th in the league)
'09-'10 Pace: 100.3 possessions per game (1st in the league)
The numbers above slightly understate the degree to which Keith Smart has slowed things down; the league as a whole is playing faster this season. (Which three teams are outrunning dem Dubs? Why, the Timberwolves, Knicks and Rockets, you silly goose!)
'10-'11 Offensive Efficiency: 104.7 points per 100 possessions (19th)
'09-'10 Offensive Efficiency: 108.2 points per 100 possessions (14th)
This year's offensive results lag a bit behind last year's. Given the assiness of the last two games, and that those games represent 20% of the Warrriors' output thus far, a poor showing here shouldn't be altogether surprising. Things get more interesting, however, when you break down the offense Four Factors-style...
'10-'11 Effective Field Goal Percentage: 49.3 (16th)
'09-'10 Effective Field Goal Percentage: 51.4 (8th)
Thus far, the new Warriors have flat-out missed more shots. They're making and taking threes at almost the exact same rates as last season (odd, given the massive personnel turnover), but the team's collective FG% on two-pointers has fallen from 49.9 to 47.4, a big ol' difference. Breaking it down even further, with the help of the fine folks at Hoopdata, you see that the main problems occur from 10-23 feet: the Dubs just aren't making mid-range jumpers nearly as often as they did last season.
'10-'11 Turnover Rate: 14.6 per 100 possessions (25th)
'09-'10 Turnover Rate: 17.6 per 100 possessions (t-9th)
Yikes! The Dubs are turning it over an extra three or so times a night, and yeah, that'll hurt you -- that'll hurt you a lot. C.J. Watson's absence is felt keenly here.
'10-'11 Offensive Rebound Rate: 31.1% (5th)
'09-'10 Offensive Rebound Rate: 21.0% (30th)
Yikes in a good way! The '09-'10 Warriors were one of the worst offensive-rebounding teams in NBA history. This year, thanks to David Lee and some basketball-sized lineups (we don't miss you, Nellie), the Dubs are one of the league's best at crashing the offensive glass. They get the ball back nine more times per game than they did last year. That's a massive, massive difference, one that more than cancels out the uptick in turnovers and even the greater frequency of bricks. The Warriors have improved so much in this department, in fact, that it's hard to see how this offense won't exceed last year's...
'10-'11 Free Throw Rate: 17.8 free throws made per 100 field goals attempted (30th)
'09-'10 Free Throw Rate: 23.0 free throws made per 100 field goals attempted (13th)
...ruh-roh.
The Warriors are netting 4.4 fewer points at the line per game this season than they did last season. In fact, the Warriors have taken fewer free throws than any other team thus far despite their top-five pace, and they've made many fewer free throws than any other team, thanks to a bottom-five 71.8 team FT%.
This is a big, big problem. Free throws are called free for a reason... a team that gets to and converts at the line frequently can stumble its way to a credible offensive night even when everyone's cold. If you can't draw whistles, you're going to have some downright horrible offensive nights. Nights like, say, Saturday, when the Warriors totaled six made free throws, 72 points and an execrable 82.1 team Offensive Rating. The '09-'10 Warriors never had an offensive night that bad.
Onto the defense...
'10-'11 Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 points per 100 possessions (12th)
'09-'10 Defensive Efficiency: 111.7 points per 100 possessions (29th)
...a sunnier story indeed, as the '10-'11 Golden State Warriors currently rank as an above-average defensive team. Let's just jot that down one more time: the '10-'11 Golden State Warriors currently rank as an above-average defensive team. For this reason alone, Keith Smart deserves a little benefit of the doubt... he's already turned a lot of Nellie's chicken shit into chicken salad.
This year's offensive results lag a bit behind last year's. Given the assiness of the last two games, and that those games represent 20% of the Warrriors' output thus far, a poor showing here shouldn't be altogether surprising. Things get more interesting, however, when you break down the offense Four Factors-style...
'10-'11 eFG% Allowed: 48.3 (10th)
'09-'10 eFG% Allowed: 52.5 (t-27th)
If the Warriors aren't hitting as many shots as they did last season, that goes doubly for their opponents: thus far, opponents are scoring more efficiently from the field against the Celtics and Spurs than they are against the boys from Oracle. A closer look at Hoopdata's shot location numbers, however, suggests this strong showing may be short-lived. Opponents are feasting on the Dubs inside ten feet, and given the horrid D of Lee and his ilk, that trend seems likely to continue. Opponents have only made 32.4% of their threes against the Dubs in '10-'11, and that trend's not likely to continue... no team held their opponents to a number that low in 2009-10. The new-look Warriors will undoubtedly suppress field-goal shooting better than their predecessors, but they may be punching a bit above their weight right now.
'10-'11 Turnover Rate Allowed: 17.8 per 100 possessions (5th)
'09-'10 Turnover Rate: 17.5 per 100 possessions (1st)
A number of teams are forcing turnovers at aberrantly high rates this season. The Warriors don't currently lead the pack, but they're in the mix... thanks to Curry, Monta and the quick hands of the frontcourt, the Dubs should continue to enjoy an advantage in this department.
'10-'11 Defensive Rebound Rate: 69.6% (26th)
'09-'10 Defensive Rebound Rate: 68.5% (30th)
Curiously, the sea change in rebounding ability on the offensive end hasn't been mirrored on the defensive side of the ledger. These new Warriors do protect their glass a bit better than their predecessors, but they still do it pretty damn badly. Heal quickly, David Lee.
'10-'11 Free Throw Rate Allowed: 28.6 FTM/100FGA (27th)
'09-'10 Free Throw Rate: 26.0 FTM/100 FGA (27th)
It turns out there are two ugly sides to this free throw coin, as the '10-'11 Warriors have, improbably, sent opponents to the line even more often than the slap-happy '09-'10 team. All told, they are scoring 8.1 fewer points at the line per game than their opponents. No NBA team in this century has recorded a free-throw deficit that big. In fact, in the last decade, only five teams have recorded a deficit of more than five points:
1. MIN '07-'08: -6.0 FTM/G; 22-60
2. DEN '02-'03: -5.8 FTM/G; 17-65
3. CHI '05-'06: -5.7 FTM/G; 41-41
4. ATL '04-'05: -5.2 FTM/G; 13-69
5. MIL '09-'10: -5.2 FTM/G; 46-36
The list does feature two surprise playoff entrants, but the average performance of these teams was 28-54. This ain't a group you want any part of.
We'd wondered if these Warriors really had any shot at competing in a loaded-as-ever Western Conference. The fact is, they might... but only if they address their nightly disparity in whistles, because a team that commits fouls much more often than it draws them doesn't have enough margin for error to win close games. And since Corey Maggette isn't walking through that door, the coaching staff's time is probably best spent teaching defensive discipline. Simply put, these guys have to stop fouling so damn much. Real teams don't slap away possessions like this.
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