July 27, 2010

Pargomania...?

For a team that seemed comprised almost exclusively of little guys just four months ago, the Warriors sure ran out of 'em quick. Corey Maggette and Kelenna Azubuike were traded away; the blink-and-you-missed-him Raja Bell signed with the Jazz; the Warriors decided not to match reasonable contract offers to Anthony Morrow and C.J. Watson. All five of these players play small forward or smaller in a sane universe, and their departures stripped the returning non-big depth chart down to Curry, Monta and Reggie Williams. To compensate, the Warriors have added a promising three in Dorell Wright, a charming novelty act in Jeremy Lin, and a pretty useless vet in Charlie Bell. Today, the Dubs added another piece: 31-year-old journeyman Jannero Pargo has agreed to a two-year contract worth $2.4 millon in full.

The way to look at this signing is to ask yourself the following question. Let's say you've just signed a player to an 80-million-dollar contract, thereby signaling that you're serious about competing in the near future. Your cap situation is decent... you aren't likely to sign any max players in the near future, but you're in no danger of triggering the luxury tax, either. In that scenario, which would you rather have?

A) Two seasons of one of the best backup combo guards in the league
B) Two seasons of one of the worst backup combo guards in the league, and two seasons of $2.3 million in cap space

Because, let's be very clear about this: Pargo is one of the absolute worst guards on any roster, a guy who makes Charlie Bell look like an offensive powerhouse in comparison. Brandon Jennings got savaged for posting a 47.5 true shooting percentage in his rookie season... Pargo posted a 42.9 TS% last year, has averaged a 47.1 TS% for his career, and unlike Jennings, doesn't pass nearly well enough to balance things out. His effect on the offensive efficiency of his various teams has been horrific: in his last four seasons, Pargo's teams have scored 5.3, 8.1, 5.5, and 1.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when he took the court. This guy may be the single worst offensive player in the NBA.

Defense is Pargo's calling card, and he plays it well, but not nearly well enough to balance out his offense. In his five NBA stops, only one team has played better with Pargo than without him, a 23-59 Bulls team for whom he played 13 fluky-hot games six years ago. Every other team, whether good or bad, high-scoring or defensive-minded, LA-based or Chicago-based or New Orleans/OKC-based, has suffered from his presence, usually by a lot. C.J. Watson, of course, has greatly improved the Warriors' chances of competing when he's taken the floor the last couple years.

The gap between these two players isn't a stream, it's a river. If each guy gave you 18 minutes a night, CJ would net you about three more wins than Pargo would... the difference between these guys is the difference between a 39-43 team and a 42-40 team. And the front office accepted that downgrade for $2.3 million in cap savings in '10-'11 and '11-'12, which is less than 40% of an opening MLE offer, around the same amount as the biannual exception, and far less than Ekpe Udoh will earn while he dresses nicely at courtside. Was that trade really worth it? Even if the Warriors felt they needed to dump CJ at the trade deadline to clear space, would a top-tier backup point guard with $5 million total left on his contract really be tough to move, when each conference's superpower needs help at the position?

The problem with the Warriors' summer isn't simply that they traded Anthony Randolph, or overpaid David Lee, or let Morrow and CJ go, or humored hometown sentiments with Lin, or signed a terrible player to a small contract. The problem is also that all of these moves, in concert, do not reflect any sort of coherent vision. If you want to compete, you should keep your cheap and useful complementary pieces around. If you want to rebuild, you shouldn't offer the sun and moon for a 27-year-old who won't fix you. Signing David Lee and nuking a good bench doesn't even qualify as "penny wise, pound foolish"; it's more like "penny foolish and pound really foolish."

Jannero Pargo won't break the newly minted Lacob/Guber bank, but his signing is another mistake in a summer chock-full of them. This smacks of the Mikki Moore signing of yesteryear: Pargo's the kind of guy you sign because you need to sign, well, somebody. The Golden State Warriors will not be competitive until they stop making transactional shrugs like this one.

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