November 23, 2010

The Bench

That 6-2 start was mighty nice, but if the last six games haven't taken the wind out of your sails, your boating license oughtta be revoked. Since David Lee went down with a case of tooth elbow, the Warriors have

- gotten gored by the Bulls in an understandable but ugly road-weary blowout;
- been outscrapped by Milwaukee in the worst Golden State offensive performance in years;
- barely survived a middling Pistons team after a complete second-half collapse;
- been lit up by the Knicks in front of the home faithful;
- gotten stomped by a Lakers team that never even considered leaving cruise control, and
- gone cold in Denver, in another excusable loss that was uglier than it had to be.

Simply put, dem Dubs have been playing some wretched, wretched basketball. The offense is tied for 19th in the league in efficiency; the defense, which had shown early signs of legitimacy, now ranks 26th. The team's -4.7 point differential is significantly worse than last year's. Yes, they're still .500. But this may very well be the least impressive 7-7 team in league history. And given the rough road they have to travel over the next four weeks -- after the holiday, their list of opponents reads "Spurs-Suns-Thunder-Mavs-Spurs-Heat-Jazz" -- the Warriors probably won't be .500 for long.

Others will tell you that better days are coming -- that the return of David Lee will make a huge difference (possible, though he never seemed to help the Knicks' fortunes to any massive degree), that the return of Louis Amundson will help a bit (certainly so), that the schedule will get easier (indeed it will), that "these guys just need time to gel" (possible but unfounded). We're not here to tell you that things won't get better. But we are interested in examining why they've gotten so bad. The nightly disparity in free throws is a big reason. Another is the bench.

Holy crap, this bench is horrible. We'll take an alphabetical stroll through the wreckage in a moment, but if you want a shorthand explanation of how bad things have gotten: nineteen NBA players have a 42.3 TS% or worse this season. Five of those nineteen players are in the Warriors' second unit. This is the most bricktastic bench in basketball, and much like many of their shots, the competition ain't close.

Jeff Adrien
'10-'11 Per 36: 8.4 PTS on 8.8 shots (.419 TS%), 11.6 REB, 2.0 AST, 1.2 TO, 1.2 STL, 1.2 BLK, 4.0 PF

'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus:
+30.72

That net plus-minus ain't a misprint... it's a testament to the risks of tiny sample sizes, but it may also suggest that this banger can play some D. The Dubs have rebounded and defended extremely well with Adrien on the floor, and his numbers suggest that he's been a big part of the reason why. The team's improved offensive fortunes with him on the floor are less convincing... he's a beast on the offensive glass and has passed capably, but a .419 TS% is nobody's idea of a good time. Still and all, Adrien may be the one second-unit Warriors who's exceeded expectations to date. If he keeps going at this clip, he'll be able to forge a nice little career for himself, bricks and all.

Charlie Bell
'09-'10 Per 36:
10.3 PTS on 9.9 shots (.486 TS%), 2.9 REB, 2.3 AST, 1.2 TO, 0.9 STL, 0.3 BLK, 3.0 PF
'10-'11 Per 36: 6.6 PTS on 9.9 shots (.322 TS%), 3.7 REB, 4.1 AST, 2.1 TO, 0.8 STL, 0.0 BLK, 2.5 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: -0.04
'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: +5.02

Bell is the only bench player besides Adrien who can boast a positive net plus-minus on the season to date, thanks solely to the defensive end of the floor. That may not be a fluke, either... Bell's lost a step, but the idea that he is outdefending Curry and/or Monta doesn't sound outlandish. What does sound outlandish? A FUCKING .322 TRUE SHOOTING PERCENTAGE. We're talking about a total of 24 shots from the field (17 missed) and two free throws (both missed), so maybe Charlie can pull these numbers up a tad. But he's four years past his last non-horrible offensive season, and he's only getting slower. We said it when the Dubs acquired him, and we'll say it again: if this guy's in your rotation, something has gone horribly wrong.

Rodney Carney
'09-'10 Per 36:
13.4 PTS on 11.8 shots (.515 TS%), 5.8 REB, 1.6 AST, 0.9 TO, 1.1 STL, 0.8 BLK, 3.3 PF
'10-'11 Per 36: 14.9 PTS on 12.1 shots (.538 TS%), 4.5 REB, 1.6 AST, 2.0 TO, 1.3 STL, 0.4 BLK, 3.6 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: -0.69
'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: -10.65

Trend-bucker! Rodney's the one supporting Warrior that is scoring more often and more accurately from the field than he did last season... indeed, he's hovering right around the league average in both respects, a fine showing for a bench piece. Where Carney is disappointing is, well, everywhere else, as the declines in his rebounding, passing and shot-blocking totals are even starker when you remember that his '09-'10 numbers were achieved at a slow Philadelphian pace. Still, Carney's ugly net plus-minus showing is roughly par for the course on this benighted bench, and the on-court/off-court disparity is entirely offensive, suggesting that it's more a function of his not getting to play with the good players as much as anything else. Carney has been... okayish. Around here, that's pretty damn special.

Dan Gadzuric
'09-'10 Per 36:
10.1 PTS on 10.2 shots (.440 TS%), 10.5 REB, 1.4 AST, 1.7 TO, 1.0 STL, 1.5 BLK, 7.2 PF
'10-'11 Per 36: 9.0 PTS on 10.6 shots (.390 TS%), 12.0 REB, 0.9 AST, 1.8 TO, 1.7 STL, 1.8 BLK, 6.5 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: +5.80
'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: -15.43

Oy. Nice guy, plays hard, knows his role, yadda yadda yadda... it's downright scary when Gadzuric has the ball in his hands. The Bucks had some freaky-good defensive showings with him on the floor, but that magic has not followed him to Oakland; there's nothing in the numbers to suggest that Gadzuric's a big help on that end. As with so many of these guys, Gadzuric's passing numbers (no great shakes to begin with) have taken a distinct turn for the worse. The reason why isn't exactly mysterious: when nobody on the floor can score, you're a lot more likely to rack up a turnover than an assist.

Jeremy Lin
'10-'11 Per 36: 9.3 PTS on 9.7 shots (.408 TS%), 3.0 REB, 5.1 AST, 3.0 TO, 5.5 STL, 1.7 BLK, 3.8 PF

'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus:
-5.75

Where to begin with Jeremy Lin...

...let's start on defense, where Lin is posting eye-popping video-game numbers of 5.5 steals and 1.7 blocks per 36. Those numbers won't hold up with more playing time, of course, and they come with a high cost in terms of fouls, but Lin does deserve some defensive credit: the Dubs profit from his presence on that end.

On the other end, there's really no nice way to say it: thus far, Lin's offensive numbers are not those of an NBA-caliber player. Far too many misses (especially given how rarely he shoots), too many turnovers, only two offensive rebounds in 85 minutes. Lin's numbers could improve, and I'd take him over Charlie Bell in a heartbeat. But I wouldn't take Charlie Bell if I wanted to compete, and I probably wouldn't take Jeremy Lin, either.

Vladimir Radmanovic
'09-'10 Per 36:
10.3 PTS on 11.0 shots (.449 TS%), 7.2 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.8 TO, 1.2 STL, 0.3 BLK, 3.9 PF
'10-'11 Per 36: 10.7 PTS on 12.1 shots (.422 TS%), 5.9 REB, 3.7 AST, 1.7 TO, 1.3 STL, 1.3 BLK, 6.1 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: -4.58
'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: -11.17

Same shit, different day. Vlad's doing a few things differently -- passing better and blocking more shots, rebounding worse, fouling more -- but the overall picture remains the same, a PER in the single digits and an inexplicable place in a team's rotation. Vlad's poor plus-minus is especially damning, as he's gotten to play with the first unit more than most. Vlad's initially fooled many a coach over the years, but the good ones come to realize how useless he is... let's hope Keith Smart can do the same.

Reggie Williams
'09-'10 Per 36:
16.8 PTS on 13.0 shots (.588 TS%), 5.1 REB, 3.0 AST, 1.3 TO, 1.0 STL, 0.3 BLK, 2.3 PF
'10-'11 Per 36: 15.2 PTS on 12.6 shots (.539 TS%), 3.8 REB, 2.7 AST, 2.1 TO, 0.5 STL, 0.2 BLK, 3.6 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: +0.43
'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: -19.84

The striking thing about the dip in Reggie's production is the lack of anything striking: there isn't a single category where he's dropped precipitously, and he's even slightly improved in a couple areas (getting to the line a bit more, shooting threes a bit more often). But if you score a bit less often and a bit less efficiently, and rebound a bit less, and pass a bit worse, and make even fewer defensive plays while fouling a bit more... well, you can go from "intriguing young hotshot" to "adequate bench piece" in a hurry. And of course, Reggie's plus-minus showing is striking, and for all the wrong reasons. For the second straight year, the Dubs have played extra-shitty defense with Reggie Williams on the floor, and he hasn't provided any evident offensive lift to counteract that.

Reggie is not as bad as that plus-minus showing suggests. That prism is unkinder to him than to anyone else, as he's the guy who's most often saddled with the task of making an offense out of these goofballs. It would take a special player to do that.

Unfortunately, after an eye-opening rookie campaign, Reggie Williams is doing nothing to make you think he's special. He's still a reasonably productive offensive player, but no better, and his defense is putrid. Most teams have a better sixth man than that. A number of teams have a better eighth man than that. Right now, Reggie Williams is part of the problem.

Brandan Wright
'08-'09 Per 36:
16.9 PTS on 12.9 shots (.570 TS%), 8.2 REB, 1.1 AST, 1.2 TO, 1.2 STL, 1.9 BLK, 3.9 PF
'10-'11 Per 36: 15.1 PTS on 12.6 shots (.545 TS%), 7.9 REB, 0.7 AST, 2.2 TO, 0.0 STL, 2.5 BLK, 5.0 PF

'08-'09 Net Plus/Minus: +0.77
'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: -2.60

And then there's this guy.

Brandan Wright, for the third of his three star-crossed NBA seasons, has outplayed pretty much everyone else on the Warriors bench. His numbers are the worst of his career, and they're still miles ahead of anything Vladimir Radmanovic or Rodney Carney has ever done. What's more, the team defense has taken a dramatic uptick whenever Wright's been on the floor. And yet all you'll hear from most Warriors fans is something to the effect of "show some fire, ya goofy bust!"

There's no use in getting upset about it at this point -- Brandan Wright will never get a sustained chance here, and injuries may prevent him from ever amounting to much of anything. But he's been pretty good, and a team with a supporting cast this bad would do well to give its most promising bench player a longer leash. Don Nelson shoved him aside, and Keith Smart's doing the same. A franchise that evaluates talent that badly will often have struggles, and benches, as bad as this.

2 comments:

E said...

Your analysis is nice, but the way you frame each player's contributions makes it seem like you don't watch the games, and only go by what the numbers tell you. Is this an accurate observation?

Owen said...

It is not... I've watched ten or eleven of the Dubs' games thus far this season. But there are thousands of folks out there analyzing what they see on the court. We Worriers try to err on the side of the numbers, partly out of brand differentiation, partly because we think the optics of the Warriors' play ("tough loss, but MAN, these guys are fun to watch!") obscure some of the team's bigger problems.