The Bench

That 6-2 start was mighty nice, but if the last six games haven't taken the wind out of your sails, your boating license oughtta be revoked. Since David Lee went down with a case of tooth elbow, the Warriors have

- gotten gored by the Bulls in an understandable but ugly road-weary blowout;

- been outscrapped by Milwaukee in the worst Golden State offensive performance in years;

- barely survived a middling Pistons team after a complete second-half collapse;

- been lit up by the Knicks in front of the home faithful;

- gotten stomped by a Lakers team that never even considered leaving cruise control, and

- gone cold in Denver, in another excusable loss that was uglier than it had to be.

Simply put, dem Dubs have been playing some wretched, wretched basketball. The offense is tied for 19th in the league in efficiency; the defense, which had shown early signs of legitimacy, now ranks 26th. The team's -4.7 point differential is significantly worse than last year's. Yes, they're still .500. But this may very well be the least impressive 7-7 team in league history. And given the rough road they have to travel over the next four weeks -- after the holiday, their list of opponents reads "Spurs-Suns-Thunder-Mavs-Spurs-Heat-Jazz" -- the Warriors probably won't be .500 for long.

Others will tell you that better days are coming -- that the return of David Lee will make a huge difference (possible, though he never seemed to help the Knicks' fortunes to any massive degree), that the return of Louis Amundson will help a bit (certainly so), that the schedule will get easier (indeed it will), that "these guys just need time to gel" (possible but unfounded). We're not here to tell you that things won't get better. But we are interested in examining why they've gotten so bad. The nightly disparity in free throws is a big reason. Another is the bench.

Ten Games In: The Starters

For the first time in several years, the Warriors have a clear-cut starting quintet. How are these five fellas doing? Let's examine that question by looking at their per-36 numbers and plus-minus results, again using '09-'10 numbers as a frame of reference. (Data comes courtesy of two of our faves, Basketball Reference and Basketball Value.)

Andris Biedrins

'09-'10 Per 36: 7.8 PTS on 6.5 shots (.561 TS%), 12.2 REB, 2.7 AST, 1.5 TO, 0.9 STL, 2.1 BLK, 5.5 PF

'10-'11 Per 36: 7.9 PTS on 8.0 shots (.474 TS%), 12.7 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.6 TO, 1.4 STL, 1.0 BLK, 4.9 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: -5.67

'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: +12.44

To hear Fitz and Barnett tell it, Beans has come back from a wretched, injured season to regain his earlier high level of performance. The numbers tell a quite different story: this Andris Biedrins is basically last year's model, only with more misses and worse passing.

Now, part of the disconnect is that last year's Beans was a lot more productive than most people thought: an efficient-scoring rebound machine that passes well has its uses, timidity and defensive flaws notwithstanding. But Andris is still gunshy around the basket -- he's currently getting to the line one sixth as often as he did in '08-'09 -- and has had uncharacteristic trouble converting on the few occasions when he's been willing to shoot. His foul rate is not as comically high as last year's, but it's still far too high. Dude's not yet back to his old form, and not particularly close to it, either.

You'd be hard-pressed, however, to say that his issues have been hurting the team's chances thus far. Andris's plus-minus numbers have taken a sharp 180... to hear the early adjusted plus-minus results tell it, Andris now, as he often did in the Baron days, boasts the best on-court/off-court results of any Warrior. That Andris Biedrins is useful is undeniable. That he will reach his 2008 form again is an open question.

Ten Games In: The Team

(Quick programming note: our decreased unemployment has made regular blogging a taller task. Going forward, we're not going to cover every single game. But we will be chiming in on dem Dubs every Monday and Thursday, in our traditional numbers-heavy style, and will single out the occasional game for the microscope. We hope you tune in and join us.)

So. On the one hand, the Warriors are 6-4, and (cue the desperate kind of accounting that crappy teams' fans are reduced to), if the season ended today, they'd nab the sixth seed in the Western Conference. On the other hand, their -1.9 point differential bespeaks a .400 team more than a .600 team. But on an unprecedented and terrifying third hand, their early schedule has been road-heavy and arduous, with one of the season's three big East coast swings already in the books. Maybe a -1.9 differential in these ten games ain't so bad, after all. Or maybe it ain't not so bad. How good are these guys, really?

Let's take a look at the team output thus far, using last year's wretched squad as a reference point. (Next time out, we'll take a look at the season's output on an individual level.)

#1: HOU @ GS 10/27/10

PreThoughts

We Worriers are busy, and them baseballers in orange and black have been consuming what little sports energy we have. But a new Dubs season is upon us, and a fascinating one it should be.

The official Worrier predictions for the year: a 36-46 showing, and frequent mutterings from us and others about Anthony Randolph. These Rockets are tough; this conference is fierce; this offseason may not bear immediate fruit. But several monkeys have been stripped from our collective backs, and who the fuck knows, as they say on Opening Night. Best of luck to us all.

Rocket To Watch: Yao Ming, whose usage patterns will be fascinating.

Warrior To Watch: David Lee, who will provide us some happy memories if he provides any defense.

Whoa, Nellie.

While we Worriers were busy elsewhere, the biggest, gnarliest thorn in this blog's side was removed: Don Nelson jetted home to Maui, after tendering a "resignation" that had a distinct "you're fired, so save face if you like" flavor to it. The organization predictably named Keith Smart as Nellie's successor, with the big man's strong blessing... we'll address Mr. Smart soon enough.

The bones of this particular issue have long since been picked clean, but we'll chime in with a couple belated reactions to Nellie's departure.

* First off, thank the good lord. This team had no prayer of becoming relevant with a head coach on autopilot. The 2010-11 Warriors probably won't be relevant under Smart either, but having a motivated and detail-oriented man at the helm will make a big, big difference. The fact that Lacob, Guber et al realized this is an encouraging data point... it didn't take a rocket scientist to realize Nellie's useful days were done, but the previous regime never figured it out.

* Nellie was fired after a second straight 50+ loss season, after a season that produced several embarrassing NBA records, after alienating over $120 million worth of the roster, after a disgracefully unprofessional performance. He became the league's all-time winningest coach in April, and yet the new ownership regime couldn't even wait to assume ownership to get rid of him. Incredibly, this is the classiest and most amicable parting Nellie has ever had with an NBA franchise.

* Nellie presided over a tumultuous four seasons, with heavy roster turnover, front office conflict and sudden changes in team direction... he was complicit in all of these factors, of course, but they make an overall synopsis of his coaching performance difficult. However, you can pretty decently sum up his second Golden State tenure with a simple pair of statistics.

'06-'10 Warriors (with Baron Davis): 84-62, .575

'06-'10 Warriors (without Baron Davis): 61-121, .335

Nellie used more or less the same strategy throughout this run: go small, go fast, go for steals, and give tons of minutes and leeway to your best offensive player. With a maestro like Baron around, this strategy worked, and worked well. When the Dubs' best offensive player was anyone else -- Jack, Monta, Curry -- the strategy was more or less disastrous. Nellie never bothered to veer from it, and his failure to re-jigger led to an embarrassing two-year finish to his coaching career. The man was long lionized for his ability to adapt. When he stopped adapting, he quickly perished.

* Don Nelson finished his NBA coaching career with a record of 1,335-1063, going 418-445 in Oakland and 917-618 everywhere else. Given the length of his two tenures and the bland failures of the men who served in between them, many Warriors fans have trouble even remembering another coach, and yet when you look at Don Nelson's career, you realize his Golden State years amount to little more than padding. Whatever coaching and team-building greatness the man displayed took place in Milwaukee and Dallas; coaching the Warriors was what Nellie did when he wasn't doing anything important. It's one last painful reminder of this team's irrelevance over the past several decades.

Fare thee well, Nellie. You were often maddening, but rarely boring, and when a little more dust collects on the ugliness of the past two years, we will remember you fondly. Until then, lose our fucking number, you clown.