Disaster Strikes

UGH.

Okay. Look.

The Warriors' big trade today -- Randolph, Turiaf and Azubuike (plus possibly others?!) for David Lee -- has the contours of a trade that makes sense. If you have a bunch of middling players, the best possible outcome is to trade several of them for a pretty good player. Azubuike and Turiaf, as fond as we Worriers are of them, are the exact kind of short-contract spare parts that should be moved for value. And while we'd personally love to cradle Anthony Randolph to our misery-wracked chests until the end of time, there is an argument for trading a high-upside, high-risk guy for a known commodity.

The problem is, the known commodity that is David Lee is known to... how do we put this politely... not help NBA teams win basketball games.

The 2009-10 New York Knicks were outscored by 4.1 points per 48 minutes when David Lee was on the court, and by 2.8 points per 48 minutes when he wasn't. To reiterate: this year's Knicks team played better without David Lee. The previous year? Same deal: the '08-'09 Knicks were outscored by 3.4 per 48 with Lee, and by only 0.7 per 48 without him. In the two years before that, Lee's net plus-minus was positive, but considering he was subbing for a gravy-addled Eddy Curry, that ain't saying all that much.

The more grizzled Warriors fans among you may remember a gentleman by the name of Troy Murphy. By many production-based metrics, Mr. Murphy is a borderline superstar: Dave Berri's Wins Produced, for example, rate him as one of the league's twenty best players. This, of course, is ridiculous, for Troy Murphy's teams are always bad, especially so when he plays... his gaudy rebounding totals stem from the fact that he selfishly pads his own stats, to the detriment of the Pacers' D and even the team's rebounding.

Well, David Lee is better than Troy Murphy. But the two share the same category: both guys boast gaudy counting stats that exemplify weaknesses as much as strengths. When Lee took the floor for the Knicks in the last couple seasons, they rebounded worse as a team and defended much worse. His individual stats suggest he's a borderline All-Star; his team results suggest that the Knicks might've improved upon their 29-53 record if he'd simply stayed home.

This is the exact type of player that the Warriors don't need. In fact, this is the exact type of player that the Warriors just dumped for Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric. On a shitty roster with only one healthy three and several high-upside young fours, why, exactly, would you dump $30 million worth of Corey Maggette and then trade real talent for $80 million of David Lee?

This is pointless. This is counterproductive. This is ridiculous. This team is now paying $33 million -- about 57% of the salary cap -- for Monta, Biedrins and Lee, three players whose teams failed to win 30 games last year. This is not how you build a team, nor how you sell one. If the Warriors' next owner looks at a trade like this and smiles, then run for the hills, people... a new day will not be dawning anytime soon. This shit is downright shameful.

Tomorrow, we will take one last look at Anthony Randolph, a player who possesses more upside than any current Warrior (yes, Curry too). Next week, we will embark on the ugly process of examining this newly Lee'd and freshly directionless franchise.

Worrying doesn't even begin to cover it at this point. Is www.goldenstatemourners.com available?

Disaster Looms

Do not do this, Warriors. Just don't do it. Do not fucking trade Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike and Ronny Turiaf for David Lee and then sign David Lee to an $80-million deal.

People: call your friends and neighbors, your local representatives, your mail carriers, your travel agents. Sound the alarms... let hell roll through the streets of northern California. May the very skies shudder as we bellow these three truths:

1) The proper move after dumping an overpaid, no-D scorer is not to acquire an even more overpaid no-D scorer.

2) Now is no time to swell the payroll.

3) Rebuilding teams should not punt on Anthony Randolphs.

We're at the edge of a cliff here, folks. Here's hoping LeBron accidentally announces he's joining the Knicks, because this has Webber Dump: The Sequel written all over it.

Stay tuned.

The Speedy Claxton Affair

You probably heard about this. The Warriors' decision to cut bait on Speedy Claxton's expiring contract less than two weeks before the trade deadline has been pilloried, and rightfully so -- Larry Riley's game effort to defend the move to Marcus Thompson only highlighted its stupidity. But it's worth clarifying exactly why this move was so stupid.

The problem with this move was not that Anthony Tolliver is a complete waste of time. He's easily the most intriguing D-Leaguer that's come through Oakland this season, having provided non-impact but solid production... he's passed well for a big and generally avoided foul trouble, and his woes behind the arc have obscured the fact that he's shooting over 50% on two-pointers. Tolliver's a fine guy to keep around.

The problem with this move was not that it precluded some big trade from happening. The Warriors aren't in a position to snag a top-tier guy, and they shouldn't be looking to add a second-tier guy who makes a lot of money... a Caron Butler type does nothing to cure the woes of this franchise. Other than dumping Maggette's contract, which can be accomplished as easily with Raja Bell's contract as with Speedy's, there's no big-money move that the Warriors should be considering right now. You don't pay to build on top of a foundation this rotten.

The problem with this move was not that it prioritized short-term interests over long-term ones. The short-term goal of fielding a semi-credible non-embarrassment of a team should always rank high on the list of any GM... even if you're rebuilding, you owe it to your paying customers to keep up appearances. And in fact, the team's long-term interests are better served by the presence of Anthony Tolliver than by the presence of a second mid-sized expiring deal. One certainly can't bank on perfect health from either Randolph or Wright next season, let alone both, so maintaining team control over another young big is a fine idea.

The problem with this move wasn't the move itself... it was the messaging behind the move. It reveals the inconsistency and incoherence of the Warriors' front office. Because if you're willing to drop Speedy Claxton for Anthony Tolliver when you're 13-35, you should've been willing to drop Devean George for a warm body when you were 6-10. If you're actually invested in helping the current team win some games, you should've demonstrated that investment before the season was already lost. If you're not interesting in converting expiring deals into value, you should've acknowledged that to your fanbase early and often. And you really shouldn't drop hints that you're trying to land a "star player" the day before you jettison a valuable trade chip.

In a vacuum, dumping an expiring deal to take a flyer on even a middling young 'un can be a perfectly defensible decision. But this move didn't take place in a vacuum. It took place months later than it should've, and amidst constant front office hints that the Warriors were pushing hard in the exact opposite direction. This move, and the signaling that preceded and followed it, made our general manager look like a flake and a fool. Optics matter. And if Larry Riley can't even manage to waive a player without looking bad, how on earth can we expect him to negotiate skillfully with other actors?

Trade Maggette, Already!

I'd really love to hear Craig Finn sing Corey Maggette's name. Where do you go to get that done? Is there a service where you can pay to make him sing certain syllables? Anyway, point being: it's still time to trade this guy. (Maggette, that is, not Finn -- I would NEVER trade Craig Finn.)

There's no reason to think that a fairly expensive, high-usage, bad-defense small forward will be a great fit for these Warriors anytime in the next couple years, and there's plenty of reason to think that his trade value will only go down from here. I really like Corey Maggette, and continue to think that he's badly misunderstood and underrated. But context and fit matter. And whether you're looking to buy this team or sell it, you should want that contract off the books, for expiring deals if possible. There aren't many places you can send him -- most bad teams aren't about to take on that kind of money, and most good teams are set on the wing -- but two plausible options remain, options where the Warriors would receive expiring deals in return.

1) Corey Maggette to Dallas for Josh Howard. Mark Cuban is getting antsy, and Maggette would give the Mavs needed offensive help. Their stat-nerdy front office would probably blanch at his defense more than most, but would also appreciate the value of his offense more than most. Howard's deal expires this summer.

2) Corey Maggette to Boston for expiring scrubs. The Celts would probably prefer a Hinrich type, but worth looking into. This trade would force the Warriors to waive two players to stay within roster limits, but it's getting to be that time of year... with no blockbusters on the horizon, saying goodbye to Speedy, Raja and even Devean is in the cards.

In both cases, it would be worth throwing in CJ as a sweetener if necessary. I also like CJ, but his upside isn't all that high, and the handwriting's on the wall for him here, to boot. He'll be leaving town as soon as he's able, and the Dubs should trade him for value while they can.

Larry Riley, your team is 13-35... now is no time to get timid about sucking. HOLD STEADY. Make things worse, so that they someday might get better. Trade Corey Maggette, and increase the chances that this pitiful team might enjoy a constructive summer.

A Trade Idea That'll Blow Your Mind

T.J. Ford for Vladimir Radmanovic and Devean George. FEEL THE HEAT.

Boring as it is, it'd accomplish a couple things on our end. Ford is, unlike Vlad, a type of player we could use... even if Curry's playmaking blossoms as hoped, we'll need a backup PG next year after CJ's gone. It'd also clear a roster spot, allowing us to sign Anthony Tolliver for the rest of the season once we lose our hardship exemptions. Finally, it'd give us a slightly bigger '11 expiring to dangle in trade offers next season.

I'm not gonna pretend it's a deal that would thrill the Pacers, but they'd clearly love to get Ford off their hands, and they're not likely to get much back for him. This deal would net them about $1.6 million in cap relief next season, and give them another big body to replace the almost-sure-to-be-traded Jeff Foster. And if Vlad rediscovers his three-point stroke, they'd undoubtedly be glad to let him use it... they're sixth in the league in three-point attempts but only 26th in three-point percentage.

For Indiana to bite, we'd probably either need Vlad to come back and shoot better, or for things to turn particularly noxious between Ford and Pacers management. But it'd be worth making the call, if nothing else. It wouldn't kill us to have one ginyoowine point guard on the roster.

Trading Post

Only thirty-seven shopping days left till the NBA trade deadline, and the rumors are flying hot and heavy. Darryl Morey is offering Tracy McGrady far and wide; the Wolves and Pacers either have or haven't discussed a Jefferson/Granger swap; most intriguingly, there are whispers of a Bosh/Bynum trade that would turn about eight different teams' offseason plans upside down. It's a fun time of year. But can our woeful Dubs take part in this fun, and if so, how? We've already identified one player we don't want; is there anyone worth adding or shedding?

Today, we're going to channel our inner Simmons and walk through trade possibilities between the Warriors and every other damn team. Before we get started, let's establish some ground rules.

1) We will not discuss any trade that the other team simply wouldn't consider making. I want Chris Paul, too... we don't live in that world.

2) We will not trade Anthony Randolph under any circumstances, as his actual value far exceeds his current perceived value.

3) We will not look to add any player whose contract extends past 2011, barring unusual circumstances. Our planning competitive window should still be 2011-12; given our current crappiness and uncertainty, it's not worth adding anyone who will interfere with that window.

4) We will not make a trade designed solely to help us this year, unless we can do so at no cost.

5) We should err on the side of not making a trade, if one looks like a close call. While team chemistry should not guide our thinking, we should not disrupt the bizarrely upbeat atmosphere of the current locker room unless we have a good reason to.

6) The one exception to the previous rule: C.J. Watson, who seems likely to leave this summer via free agency. Trading CJ is a worthwhile endeavor, even if it hurts some feelings.

Let's dive in and see what, if anything, the Warriors should look to do with each team.

Do Not Trade For Al Jefferson

Don't do it, Warriors... just don't do it. Here are six good reasons why not.

1) His contract is friggin' enormous. Al's owed a total of $42 million in the three years after this one, more than all but six other NBA players in that timespan; several more players will of course jump ahead of him this summer, but he'll remain in the top fifteen, making huge, earth-shattering, alpha-and-omega big-dog type money. If you trade for his contract, you're saying that you can craft a good team with this guy as your very best player, because he'll be taking up about a quarter of your payroll through 2013. Trading for Al Jefferson means you think he's a superstar...

2) ...which means you don't care if your superstar plays defense. Because Al Jefferson doesn't play defense; the Wolves' D has completely fallen apart with Al on the floor in two of the last three seasons. He was becoming a decent defender for last year's Wolves, but then...

3) ...he tore his ACL. And while his scoring numbers are slowly edging back up to par month by month, his defensive and rebounding numbers remain far below what they were, especially when you adjust for the Wolves' faster pace this year. Right now, if you trade for Al Jefferson, the only skills you know you're getting are on offense. And while Al Jefferson's a good offensive player...

4) ...he ain't that good. His post moves are gorgeous, but his field-goal percentage is middling, and he neither gets to the line much nor converts well once there. Al Jefferson has never scored with more than average efficiency, and this year his TS% is 51.3, well below average, and well below six of our rotation players. In fact, of the sixteen players who've taken the floor for us this year, the only guys to score less efficiently than Al Jefferson are Vlad, Hunter, Ronny and Jack; Ronny will catch Jefferson in the next week or two, health permitting. So it's hard to see how we'd profit from his presence on offense, especially since...

Let's Get A Gun.

The big NBA buzz of the day comes from Utah. The Jazz have apparently come to grips with the mediocrity of their current roster... as such, they're looking to make some moves and shed some payroll, with only Deron Williams deemed untouchable. There are two caveats: they'd like to remain somewhat competitive, and they want to shed payroll this year, to limit their luxury tax penalties. That makes things a bit tricky, as plain old expiring contracts will not help them. The only way they can significantly ease their '09-'10 burden is by acquiring contracts they won't actually have to pay in full: non-guaranteed contracts, partially guaranteed contracts, and contracts that are largely covered by insurance.

Happily, we have one of the latter: Speedy's contract! His expiring deal nets him $5.2 million, but as his injuries have prevented him from playing, insurance covers 80% of that cost. In other words, Speedy has a $5.2 million cap hold but only a $1.04 million price tag, making him an automatic money-saver for any team that acquires with him with real contracts. This is exactly the kind of deal the Jazz are looking for, and there aren't many like it in the league.

In other words: pick up the phone, Larry Riley, and get Kevin O'Connor on the horn. It's time to try to leverage Speedy's contract into a deal that helps us. It's time we tried to clear our future books... and it's time we tried to land a stud in the process. A complementary player better-suited to our needs than almost any other. A guy who doesn't need the ball in his hands to be an effective player. A guy who doesn't need a coherent scheme around him to be a defensive asset; a guy who defends the rim, and yet has a better assist/turnover ratio than any Warrior except for CJ. A guy whose winning ways are evinced by his having led his perennial playoff team in net plus-minus in five of the last six seasons.