Ten Games In: The Starters

For the first time in several years, the Warriors have a clear-cut starting quintet. How are these five fellas doing? Let's examine that question by looking at their per-36 numbers and plus-minus results, again using '09-'10 numbers as a frame of reference. (Data comes courtesy of two of our faves, Basketball Reference and Basketball Value.)

Andris Biedrins

'09-'10 Per 36: 7.8 PTS on 6.5 shots (.561 TS%), 12.2 REB, 2.7 AST, 1.5 TO, 0.9 STL, 2.1 BLK, 5.5 PF

'10-'11 Per 36: 7.9 PTS on 8.0 shots (.474 TS%), 12.7 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.6 TO, 1.4 STL, 1.0 BLK, 4.9 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: -5.67

'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: +12.44

To hear Fitz and Barnett tell it, Beans has come back from a wretched, injured season to regain his earlier high level of performance. The numbers tell a quite different story: this Andris Biedrins is basically last year's model, only with more misses and worse passing.

Now, part of the disconnect is that last year's Beans was a lot more productive than most people thought: an efficient-scoring rebound machine that passes well has its uses, timidity and defensive flaws notwithstanding. But Andris is still gunshy around the basket -- he's currently getting to the line one sixth as often as he did in '08-'09 -- and has had uncharacteristic trouble converting on the few occasions when he's been willing to shoot. His foul rate is not as comically high as last year's, but it's still far too high. Dude's not yet back to his old form, and not particularly close to it, either.

You'd be hard-pressed, however, to say that his issues have been hurting the team's chances thus far. Andris's plus-minus numbers have taken a sharp 180... to hear the early adjusted plus-minus results tell it, Andris now, as he often did in the Baron days, boasts the best on-court/off-court results of any Warrior. That Andris Biedrins is useful is undeniable. That he will reach his 2008 form again is an open question.

Curry vs. Monta #1: Pop Quiz

Curry vs. Monta is sweeping the nation! The Curryers believe that Monta is holding a young man back from greatness; the Montamaniacs contend that Monta's the better player and that the rookie is receiving plaudits he doesn't deserve. Tempers are flaring... bipartisanship seems impossible. Mark Russell is probably composing a killer parody about this conflict as we speak.

It's a complicated situation in the Warrior backcourt, and the numbers don't make things any clearer. To demonstrate, here's a quiz for you folks at home. Without consulting stat sites, see how many of the following questions you can answer correctly. Answers after the jump.

1) The '09-'10 Warriors have outscored their opponents overall during which guard's time on the floor?

2) Which Warrior guard has been the most effective at converting at the rim?

3) Which Warrior guard has materially improved the team's defense this season?

4) Which Warrior guard has a better assist/turnover ratio than Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller and Brandon Jennings?

5) Which Warrior guard has the fewest turnovers compared to the number of positive plays he makes?

6) Which Warrior guard has the highest True Shooting Percentage?

7) Which Warrior guard has scored most effectively late in the shot clock?

8) Which Warrior guard has recorded more steals per personal foul than all but eight other NBA players?

9) Which Warrior guard has accumulated the most Win Shares on a per-minute basis?

10) Which Warrior guard has the 16th-best one-year adjusted plus-minus rating in the entire NBA?

Missing The Point

A listless loss last night pushed these Warriors to 13-31. They continue to "boast" the third-worst record in the NBA; what's worse, they now have the fifth-worst home record in the league. Don Nelson needs a total of 24 victories this year to pass Lenny Wilkens for the all-time wins record... if the Dubs continue to lose at this pace, he won't get win #24 until the season's final game. Talk about going out with a whimper.

These are dark days, and the last thing Warriors fans need is something else to fret about. But the time for fretting is, nonetheless, upon us. There's trouble brewing in Oakland, of a type that most observers have neither noticed nor acknowledged. And while we Worriers have hinted at it before, hinting will no longer do; this issue has become pressing. It's time we faced our fears. It's time we talked about the elephant in the room.

Dearly beloved, we are gathered here today to lament the passing of Stephen Curry, because it just hasn't been very good. And the odds of him ever becoming a quality NBA point guard aren't very good, either.

We will now take questions.

Who Is Stephen Curry?

In his short career, Stephen Curry has been compared to many players. People throw around the idea that he's the next Steve Nash so blithely that Google actually suggests Nash when you type in "stephen curry" followed by an S and a T; more sanely, he is often compared to his father. Around these parts, we've suggested a couple guys whose careers Curry's might resemble -- Mark Price (which would be great), Jason Terry (which would be okay). Will Curry end up resembling one of these guys, or someone else altogether, or nobody in particular? We just don't know. But what we do know is that young #30 is having himself a helluva January:

39.7 minutes, 19.7 points on 15.8 shots, 4.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.5 turnovers (1.83 A/TO), 1.9 steals, 3.7 fouls

For a moment, let's forget about all the hype and the daydreaming and the Nellie and Bobby Knight quotes. Let's just look at Stephen Curry's numbers in this, his breakout month. Which NBA player's numbers do they most resemble? Who is Stephen Curry playing like right now?

Probably this guy, who we'll call Player X:

37.1 minutes, 20.7 points on 16.5 shots, 4.7 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.9 turnovers (1.71 A/TO), 1.5 steals, 2.9 fouls

Curry's taken slightly better care of the ball and grabbed a few more steals; Player X, however, has done slightly more in slightly fewer minutes, and has committed fewer fouls. In most ways -- scoring efficiency, rebounding, passing frequency -- they're pretty damn close. So who is Player X?

WebWideWorries, January 22nd

What are other people saying about the Warriors? Find about, in today's linkin' park.

• Ray Ratto thinx Monta shoots 2 much. Ray Ratto is a bit of a boob. On the other hand, Monta is shooting too much, and Ratto is the most high-profile Bay Area journalist to acknowledge that so far. It'll be interesting to see if either Monta or Nellie deems this worthy of a response.

• A John Hollinger chat from yesterday... he scoffs at the idea that Monta is All-Star material, for the same reasons we've been mentioning. As with Ratto, however, Hollinger does not acknowledge the role of coaching apathy in Monta's inefficient, gunnin' ways.

• In BBP's latest Prospectus Hoops List, we rank 27th. Bradford Doolittle thinks Curry should get the ball more, and to his credit, he does implicate coaching as a problem here, if only obliquely. But Doolittle's ode to Curry's crossover move betrays his college-centric eye for the pro game. Monta's not stopping Stephen Curry from beating defenders. Defenders are stopping Stephen Curry from beating defenders.

• Speaking of which, the Bay Area Sports Guy thinks some people (including us) are giving Steph Curry short shrift; he makes good points about potentially unfair perceptions of the kid relating to his looks, his favored status with Nellie, his reaction to our drafting him, etc. For my part, I can only say that I don't blame Curry for being overhyped, and I don't begrudge his prettyboy looks, GQ column, or ambivalence about becoming a Warrior. I like him, and I think he'll be a good player for us. I just don't think he shows much potential as an NBA point guard.

• A fun blog post from Neil Paine at Basketball Reference, listing each team's minute-weighted age, height and weight. We've only fielded the seventh-youngest lineups in the NBA -- the Thunder, Kings, Wolves, Grizzlies, Raptors (!) and Nets have been younger -- but our lineups have been the league's shortest and lightest by far. The average on-court Warrior has weighed just 204 pounds this season, while every other team's average on-court player has weighed 212 or more. (Needless to say, this has worked out fabulously for us.)

• Finally, more Curry/Monta discussion over at GSOM, prompted by a pro-Curry post by a member who goes by (ironically) monta.da.boss. Gets into some specifics that we haven't really delved into over here, including the critical point -- stated well by a fella named Missing Barry -- that Curry's lack of athleticism threatens to prevent his being a capable playmaker, no matter how good his passing eye is or isn't.

Sweet Face, Spicy Hands: The Stephen Curry Whistle Watch

While Stephen Curry's role may be changing, one aspect of his game hasn't: the kid is still smacking the shit out of people. Curry leads all NBA guards in fouls by a laughable margin... he's averaging 3.5 a game, and no other guard averages more than 3.0. (ESPN lists Dahntay Jones as a guard, but in truth he's mainly played the three in Indiana.) And he's only getting better as the season progresses; his 3.9 fouls-per-game rate in January is higher than any NBA player's except Jason Thompson's. Don't let that angelic expression fool you. We've got an adorable little thug on our hands here.

Overall, Curry is on pace for 284 personal fouls. This pace is not record-breaking... many NBA guards fouled this often in previous eras. But he is in contention to record the most fouls by any guard in the last 20 years. Gilbert Arenas (perhaps you've heard of him lately) is the leader in the clubhouse with 286 fouls, a mark he needed 42.5 minutes a game to reach in '05-'06. If current trends continue, Curry should outviolate Arenas with ease.

The three keys to success:

1) Health. Let's not anger Shaq anymore, kid.

2) Fewer minutes for CJ. The less effective/available CJ is, the easier this will be for Curry; it not only maxes out his floor time, but ensures that he'll be facing off against a fellow guard, the type of dude he likes slapping best.

3) A continued lack of coaching. We have to pray that Nellie's apathy holds through the rest of the season. Now is no time to start teaching defensive basics, not when history is on the line.

Curry's Quest continues tonight against Denver. The Nuggets draw more fouls than any other team, so this could be a big game for our young rascal. Keep your finger crossed, superfans.

The Warriors' Dirty Little Secret

After yesterday's win over the Bulls, Don Nelson said of Stephen Curry, "...I don't know any rookie point guards better than him, that I've seen." This was a lie, but an understandable one. For while Stephen Curry is clearly not the best rookie point guard thus far -- Evans has played better, Collison and Holiday have passed better, Lawson and Jennings have done both -- he's an exciting young player who's having his best month. And hey, you gotta support your team, even if you have to fudge things a little bit. Nellie's just acting like he's got the best rookie... nothing wrong with that.

But Nellie made a somewhat odd comment in that same answer:

Tonight I actually played Monta more at the point guard and him at the two, because they were denying Monta on his catches. It was easier if he just brought the ball up and ran the point, which left Curry as the two-guard and he makes open shots. He’s used to playing that role.

This wasn't a lie... Monta did initiate the offense most of the time against Chicago. By my count, the Warriors faced a set Bulls defense eighty different times; eight plays were initiated by Maggette, Biedrins or Martin, twenty-one by Curry and the other fifty-one by Monta. Monta not only ran just about every play in the fourth quarter, but ran more plays than Curry in the first quarter, too, contradicting Nellie's claim that this alignment was purely reactive. And Curry, while he had a helluva game overall, initiated rarely and poorly in the half-court. The twenty-one plays he led included a dribble off his foot out of bounds, a dribble off his foot resulting in a jump ball, a whip underneath that was deflected and very nearly picked off, a drive that he kneed out of bounds and got a lucky call on, and a drive-and-kick to a Bull, with no Warrior within feet of where the pass was aimed. The passing results were pretty stark: Monta had eight assists and two turnovers, Curry had six assists and five turnovers.

Monta definitely played the point yesterday. But it was strange that Nellie thought this was worth noting. For the truth is, Stephen Curry is not only not the best rookie point guard in the NBA, he is not the point guard of the Golden State Warriors. Monta's our point guard, and has been for a while now.

Is There Lemon In This Curry?

In a chaotic disaster of a season, we can at least point to one unmitigated bright spot: rookie whiz kid Stephen Curry, who has thrilled coaches, teammates and opponents alike. He's fun to watch... he knows the game. A fast learner. A natural. A talent. He's like a streak of silver, racing off the court and into my heart. He's...

...one of the worst starting point guards in the NBA.

In our new SCORE system, we rank guys by win percentage, PER, positional opponent PER and net plus/minus, and then average their rankings to get a quick snapshot of their relative effectiveness. Here's where Curry rates among starting PGs:

CJ vs. Curry, Overanalyzed

This springs from a GSOM FanPost arguing that CJ should be starting over Curry, due to his outplaying the rookie. This has drawn outrage, some justified, some not... I have three strong, unconflicted takes on this.

1) Yes, I agree: CJ has been outplaying Curry. In fact, right now, CJ is the better player by a comfortable margin.

To wit, their numbers per 36 minutes:

(i know its small look just click on it)

CJ scores a bit more despite shooting a bit less often; he shoots better from everywhere. Rebounding is (weirdly) an exact push, and CJ actually racks up steals a tiny bit more often, despite getting whistled a good bit less. Curry’s only advantage is in his two extra assists per 36 minutes, which is more than canceled out by his 1.9 extra turnovers. Curry’s passing numbers are not stellar; he ranks 40th amongst point guards in A/TO ratio, behind combo guys like Arenas and Devin Harris and Ramon Sessions. Those turnovers really hurt.

Now, there’s a counterargument, one to which I myself have sometimes subscribed: that with Curry, you have to go beyond the basic stats. Maybe his playmaking has an alchemic effect on our offense that’s not reflected in his numbers. And maybe so! Thus far, our offense is 4 points per 100 possessions better when Curry’s on the floor than when he’s not. That’s an impressive figure. But our offense is 7.5 points per 100 possessions better when CJ’s on the floor than when he’s not… lineups featuring CJ shoot better and score more often than lineups featuring Curry. Any vague offense-improving powers you want to ascribe to Curry, you have to doubly ascribe to CJ. There’s just no way to spin Curry as CJ’s equal on offense thus far, let alone his superior.

Then there’s defense. Neither guy is a defensive whiz, but CJ is two years farther along in learning how to play perimeter NBA defense, and it shows. We’ve defended a bit better with CJ on the floor this year, despite the fact that he’s usually in a hypersmall lineup that cripples our defensive rebounding. Plus-minus numbers don’t paint Curry as an outright defensive disaster, and he creates enough positive plays so that he might not be, but opponents shoot better and score more easily when Curry’s out there. And the average lineup he’s played in is not nearly as undersized.