Ten Games In: The Starters

For the first time in several years, the Warriors have a clear-cut starting quintet. How are these five fellas doing? Let's examine that question by looking at their per-36 numbers and plus-minus results, again using '09-'10 numbers as a frame of reference. (Data comes courtesy of two of our faves, Basketball Reference and Basketball Value.)

Andris Biedrins

'09-'10 Per 36: 7.8 PTS on 6.5 shots (.561 TS%), 12.2 REB, 2.7 AST, 1.5 TO, 0.9 STL, 2.1 BLK, 5.5 PF

'10-'11 Per 36: 7.9 PTS on 8.0 shots (.474 TS%), 12.7 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.6 TO, 1.4 STL, 1.0 BLK, 4.9 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: -5.67

'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: +12.44

To hear Fitz and Barnett tell it, Beans has come back from a wretched, injured season to regain his earlier high level of performance. The numbers tell a quite different story: this Andris Biedrins is basically last year's model, only with more misses and worse passing.

Now, part of the disconnect is that last year's Beans was a lot more productive than most people thought: an efficient-scoring rebound machine that passes well has its uses, timidity and defensive flaws notwithstanding. But Andris is still gunshy around the basket -- he's currently getting to the line one sixth as often as he did in '08-'09 -- and has had uncharacteristic trouble converting on the few occasions when he's been willing to shoot. His foul rate is not as comically high as last year's, but it's still far too high. Dude's not yet back to his old form, and not particularly close to it, either.

You'd be hard-pressed, however, to say that his issues have been hurting the team's chances thus far. Andris's plus-minus numbers have taken a sharp 180... to hear the early adjusted plus-minus results tell it, Andris now, as he often did in the Baron days, boasts the best on-court/off-court results of any Warrior. That Andris Biedrins is useful is undeniable. That he will reach his 2008 form again is an open question.

An Open Letter To Joe Lacob

Greetings, kind sir, and apologies for the dreadfully hackneyed format of this blog post.

Congratulations on your new basketball team! We were delighted to hear of your acquisition (the failure of Larry Ellison to buy the franchise caused no tears in Worrierland), and your hour-long discussion with the Razor and Mr. T was informative and appreciated. It must be a hectic time for you and your partners. You don't even officially own the team yet, and joy-starved Warriors fans risk overburdening you with demands and requests (one of which you've already been kind enough to sound off on).

Our worry-filled cup runneth over... we have no shortage of suggestions, thoughts, gripes and musings. But as your time is limited (and since you'll never actually read this), we will make only one request, one you can fulfill simply by doing nothing.

Do not trade Andris Biedrins.

Not this season, anyway, and certainly not before it. You're hearing a lot of babble about his free-throw shooting and his controversial Latvian interview... your task is to ignore that babble. There's a slam-dunk statistical argument in favor of keeping the guy, but we needn't even resort to that to demonstrate how important Beans's continued presence is. Some general business rules of thumb will do.

1) Never sell low. Trading Andris Biedrins anytime in the near future would qualify. Twelve months ago, he was a 23-year-old coming off of a double-double season, a guy who'd engendered occasional All-Star mutterings outside the Bay Area, a player who was discussed as the centerpiece in deals for Chauncey Billups and Amar'e Stoudemire, among others. Now, thanks in large part to other Warriors employees, he's seen as a wart-ridden goofball. Joe, you didn't become a whateverionnaire by pissing away commodities at the nadir of their value. Biedrins is 24, and on a non-increasing contract... you can stand to wait a while and see if he appreciates.

2) Protect your investments. The above is doubly true because of the summer's key acquisition, the guy who'll earn almost a fifth of what you just paid for this team. David Lee is a guy with many strengths, but "playing center in the NBA" ain't one of them. Alongside a five who protects the rim and cleans up his messes, Lee could be the difference-maker he was paid to be; left to fend for himself in the middle, he's a defensive sieve, and an overall mixed bag at best. The only player on the Warriors roster -- hell, one of the few in the NBA -- that has a chance at complementing David Lee properly is Andris Biedrins. It may not work even with Andris, but it sure as hell won't work without him.

3) Choose the right people. There are rumblings that you may leave Don Nelson on the bench to start the season. While we Worriers quite emphatically wouldn't, there's an argument for ceding to inertia in this case. However, this franchise has hemorrhaged a good number of useful players away in the fat man's name over the years, and while he once provided enough value to make that a worthwhile trade, he no longer provides enough value to justify hemorrhaging away a Twix bar. If you are forced to choose between Andris Biedrins and Don Nelson, please, for the love of fucking fuck, recognize that that choice ain't no choice at all. Andris Biedrins is an imperfect asset; Don Nelson is a noxious sunk cost.

Thanks, Joe. We'd say "good luck", but we're hoping you're an intelligent enough chief executive to not need much of it.

Mr. Lee

The misbegotten Chris Cohan era will be neatly bookended by a pair of 80-million-dollar power forwards. The rookie deal Chris Webber opted out of in 1994 was slated to earn him $84 million over fifteen years, numbers that sound bizarre now for all sorts of reasons. And the signature act of the last-ever Summer of Cohan was the trade for David Lee, who came equipped with a freshly inked six-year, 80-million-dollar contract. If Lee plays out that contract in the Bay Area, he'll end up being paid more money than any player in Warrior history. As such, the guy merits a pretty close look under the statistical magnifying glass.

Here are ten good things about David Lee:

1) He scores often and efficiently. Lee's 20.2 scoring average placed him 15th in the league last year, two slots ahead of Corey Maggette, and one slot behind the dearly departed Stephen Jackson. He shot .545 from the field last season, the ninth-best mark in basketball. His .584 True Shooting Percentage was the lowest of his five-year NBA career, and he still just missed the league's top twenty by a nose.

2) He rebounds like a beast. Lee averaged 11.7 rebounds a night in each of the last two seasons, placing third and fourth in the league for his efforts. The Knicks' pace inflated his numbers, but only by a tad: Lee's 17.9% Rebounding Percentage was the eighth-best mark in 2009-10. His work on the defensive glass is particularly impressive... only Dwight Howard grabbed more defensive boards than David Lee last season.

3) He's becoming an excellent passer. After putting up pedestrian assist totals in his first several seasons, David Lee found religion on the passing front in 2009-10, leading all centers with 3.6 nightly assists. This wasn't mitigated by a boatload of turnovers, either... Lee posted a 1.56 A/TO ratio, well above most big men and comfortably ahead of (ahem) Monta Ellis.

4) He makes his free throws. Lee shot .812 from the charity stripe in '09-'10, the third time in four years he'd topped 81%. A big that can ice free throws late is a valuable thing.

5) He stretches the floor. While he made his name as a banger, David Lee has quietly become a marksman from inside the arc. From 10-15 feet, he hit 49.6% of his shots last year, just a shade below Kobe Bryant... from 16-23 feet, he made 43% of his shots, just a shade below Stephen Curry. Lee hasn't made a three-pointer in an NBA game yet, but given the rate at which he's improved his range, that day isn't far off.

Disaster Strikes

UGH.

Okay. Look.

The Warriors' big trade today -- Randolph, Turiaf and Azubuike (plus possibly others?!) for David Lee -- has the contours of a trade that makes sense. If you have a bunch of middling players, the best possible outcome is to trade several of them for a pretty good player. Azubuike and Turiaf, as fond as we Worriers are of them, are the exact kind of short-contract spare parts that should be moved for value. And while we'd personally love to cradle Anthony Randolph to our misery-wracked chests until the end of time, there is an argument for trading a high-upside, high-risk guy for a known commodity.

The problem is, the known commodity that is David Lee is known to... how do we put this politely... not help NBA teams win basketball games.

The 2009-10 New York Knicks were outscored by 4.1 points per 48 minutes when David Lee was on the court, and by 2.8 points per 48 minutes when he wasn't. To reiterate: this year's Knicks team played better without David Lee. The previous year? Same deal: the '08-'09 Knicks were outscored by 3.4 per 48 with Lee, and by only 0.7 per 48 without him. In the two years before that, Lee's net plus-minus was positive, but considering he was subbing for a gravy-addled Eddy Curry, that ain't saying all that much.

The more grizzled Warriors fans among you may remember a gentleman by the name of Troy Murphy. By many production-based metrics, Mr. Murphy is a borderline superstar: Dave Berri's Wins Produced, for example, rate him as one of the league's twenty best players. This, of course, is ridiculous, for Troy Murphy's teams are always bad, especially so when he plays... his gaudy rebounding totals stem from the fact that he selfishly pads his own stats, to the detriment of the Pacers' D and even the team's rebounding.

Well, David Lee is better than Troy Murphy. But the two share the same category: both guys boast gaudy counting stats that exemplify weaknesses as much as strengths. When Lee took the floor for the Knicks in the last couple seasons, they rebounded worse as a team and defended much worse. His individual stats suggest he's a borderline All-Star; his team results suggest that the Knicks might've improved upon their 29-53 record if he'd simply stayed home.

This is the exact type of player that the Warriors don't need. In fact, this is the exact type of player that the Warriors just dumped for Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric. On a shitty roster with only one healthy three and several high-upside young fours, why, exactly, would you dump $30 million worth of Corey Maggette and then trade real talent for $80 million of David Lee?

This is pointless. This is counterproductive. This is ridiculous. This team is now paying $33 million -- about 57% of the salary cap -- for Monta, Biedrins and Lee, three players whose teams failed to win 30 games last year. This is not how you build a team, nor how you sell one. If the Warriors' next owner looks at a trade like this and smiles, then run for the hills, people... a new day will not be dawning anytime soon. This shit is downright shameful.

Tomorrow, we will take one last look at Anthony Randolph, a player who possesses more upside than any current Warrior (yes, Curry too). Next week, we will embark on the ugly process of examining this newly Lee'd and freshly directionless franchise.

Worrying doesn't even begin to cover it at this point. Is www.goldenstatemourners.com available?