You Talk About Mark Jackson...

So what do we know about Mark Jackson, other than that he knows how to butter up a 'cob and sweet-talk a Guber?

He probably won't get as mad as Nellie would about five-second back to the basket violations.

He's married to a none-hit wonder.

He was a damn fine player in his day, a kind of Jason Kidd without the rebounds, handed out the third-most assists in NBA history, and is generally acknowledged to have been a totally awesome floor impresario to boot. It's always a little bit fatuous to try to infer a potential coach's philosophy and his favored strategies and tactics from his playing days—baseball fans will immediately think of Joe Morgan, whose huffy, wrong normativeness stands in stark contrast to his transcendent results on the diamond—but I, at least, feel slightly if irrationally comforted knowing that Jackson was a pass-first guy.

And, uh...hmm...that's basically all I got. But as Hayes mentioned to me over dinner last night, we have hundreds of hours of footage of Jackson grunting out opinions from which to form impressionistic worries (hey, it's what we do here).

On ESPN and ABC, Jackson always struck me as primarily concerned with coming off as very loud and very certain. As I recall, he especially enjoys saying the phrase, "The game of basketball." He generally talks tough and takes the position of precedented old-school orthodoxy that doesn't really make anyone think. He's not afraid to say what he thinks, of course, but his comments are never really robustly contrarian or particularly well formulated, and his phraseology leaves a lot to be desired. With all this said, his early comments as Warriors head coach are nothing particularly inspiring, either. Am I reading too much into the light-hearted riffs of a color commentator?

This reliable traditionalism made him a fine foil for the shrewish Stan Van Gundy and his progressive twitterings, but it remains to be seen how it works in the locker room and in the huddle. I know I get rankled by the platitudinous boss, but professional sports, like AA meetings, are where slogans are at their strongest. Professional comity notwithstanding, and assuming the Warriors don't trade Ellis, I can for some reason just taste the impending rancor between Jackson and Ellis, possibly stemming from a latent and complex ontological disagreement about the point guard position.

At three years (and $6,000,000), we'll have plenty of opportunities to worry over his decisions. I know nothing about Mike Malone, but he was valued and valuable defensive guru in both Cleveland and New Orleans, a man in the mold of Tom Thibodeau, and may in the end be more important to lasting Golden State success than Jackson ever is. At the very least, we should be thankful that the Warriors didn't give the head coaching job to Mike Breen. Woof.

Lacob's Jabber

There's lots to talk about in Oaktown. In the last several days, the good guys debuted their latest no-D gunnin' swingman, gave a $54 million man's starting lineup spot to a rookie, and faced two of the other eight NBA originals, losing to both Celts and Sixers in that torturous fashion that exemplifies dem Dubs on the road. There's plenty of basketball-related business that we'd like to discuss. But we can't get to that stuff just yet, because the Warriors' new owner simply refuses to shut up.

We Worriers were heartened by the fact that Joe Lacob attended the Sloan MIT Sports Analytics Conference over the weekend, a stat-nerd summit that the Warriors eschewed last year. We were somewhat less heartened by the only news he made there, claiming that bloggers "are not real fans, because they don't have season tickets" (though to be fair, the context was and remains murky). And we were downright, well, worried by Lacob's recent interview with Tim Kawakami. The whole piece is worth reading in a "buckle your seatbelts" sort of way, but these are the five takeaways that troubled us the most:

Thornton?! Wild! Er...

The signing of Al Thornton, coming immediately on the heels of his being bought out by Washington, has been a polarizing one in the wilds of Warrior Nation. Two types of reaction have predominated:

1) "Al Thornton? Nice! He's a former lottery pick, and the dude can score. We just got an NBA starter for nothing. Great signing."

2) "Al Thornton? Gross! All he can do is score, and he can't even do that well. Why grab this clown when you can go for real upside in the D-League? Shit signing."

We Worriers place ourselves unequivocally in the latter camp. Thornton is an ineffective player, and at age 27, he's not likely to become effective all of a sudden; another offense-first player ain't exactly what the doctor ordered; a gamble on a D-Leaguer would've made far more sense. This was a poor signing.

However, comparisons to the pickups of the Azubuikes and Reggies of the world are premature, for one simple reason: those guys were brought in to play, at moments where the Warriors badly needed someone to swoop right into the rotation. In this situation, the guy Thornton will be backing up is fourth in the NBA in minutes played. The starter at the other position Thornton could conceivably fill leads the NBA in minutes played. And the main backup to those two positions is playing the best basketball of any Warrior. If you're worried about Al Thornton coming in and playing a lot of low-quality minutes, you can stop worrying... there's no room at this inn. From the looks of it, he was acquired for emergency purposes only.

That doesn't make it a defensible signing. The shiniest D-Leaguer on the tree still would've been a better choice, and Lord knows if Matt Steinmetz's theory is correct -- that the front office sees Thornton as Reggie's replacement for next season -- we'll cry bloody murder as loudly as anyone. But in all likelihood, Al Thornton won't play 150 minutes in a Warrior uniform. Unless and until he does, his acquisition is better described as "pointless" than "disastrous".

Golden Stats, 3/01/11

The Warriors have opened the season's second "half" with three straight losses, the last to a Minnesota Timberwolves team that is comprised of, well, Minnesota Timberwolves. The trade deadline has come and gone, leaving Oakland one young 'un lighter and one blooper heavier. Hope, in its many-splendored forms, has been extinguished from the hearts of all but the most crazed Dubs fans, and there's nothing left to do but take a peek at what's left in this grim cupboard. Line up, Warriors: you're getting inspected, numbers-style.

Last season, we Worriers experimented with a statistical amalgam we called SCORE. We've put that bad boy on ice, partly because BP's WARP, a tentpole metric, has not yet been published for this season, and partly because statistical amalgams are for fucking babies. This year, we're busting out a fat chart. This chart will feature

- John Hollinger's famously flawed and nevertheless useful PER;

- Justin Kubatko's readily available and plentifully plausible Win Shares per 48 minutes;

- and net overall unadjusted ratings and two-year adjusted plus-minus from Aaron Barzilai.

Without further ado: said chart! Above-average numbers are in green, below-average in red.

Wright To Remain Silenced

The Dubs' slaughter at the cold, unfeeling hands of the Green Machine was not actually the worst news coming out of Oakland today: the Warriors stand poised to trade Brandan Wright and Dan Gadzuric to the Nets for Troy Murphy and a second-round draft pick. The deal may be announced as-is on Wednesday, or may get incorporated into a larger deal that lands Devin Harris in Dallas or Portland. The Warriors are expected to buy Murphy out shortly thereafter, so at least Dubs fans will be spared a second act of one of the league's droopiest and least effective players. But whatever happens with Murphy, and even if the trade fails to happen, the message is clear: the Warriors' front office has shit in its collective head.

Imagine that your team drafted a power forward after his senior year of college, and that in the first 35 games of his career, he posted the following averages:

15.3 points on 11.6 points (.578 TS%), 8.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.3 turnovers, 2.0 blocks, 0.9 steals, 3.7 fouls, in 36.0 minutes

Moderately frequent and extremely efficient scoring, adequate rebounding, high block-shot rate, low turnover rate. This guy isn't perfect -- he's a bit of a black hole, and his defense is spotty -- but at 23, he's already playing effective, winning basketball overall. You're probably feeling pretty damn good about your new power forward, right?

Well, news flash, motherfucker: your new power forward is Brandan Wright. He's played 35 games' worth of minutes at 36 per, and has compiled those exact numbers. He is 23 years old.

The Golden State Warriors think that guy's worth less than a second-round pick. Which is to say that they think Brandan Wright's worth less than two million dollars in cash. Because, make no mistake, second-round picks are purchasable commodities (five have been sold in the last two drafts alone), and the prices rarely even get that high. If Joe Lacob loves draft picks as much as he claims, he can offer cash for some any time he likes. He's chosen not to do that. Instead, he's chosen to trade an above-average NBA power forward for a commodity that has a greater than 50% chance of being completely worthless.

Any franchise that thinks that David Lee is worth eighty million dollars but that Brandan Wright isn't worth a second-round pick has absolutely no idea what it's doing. If this is life under Joe Lacob, then life stinks. At least Cohan had the decency to drop out of sight when he started managing the team into the gutter.

A year ago, the Warriors had nine promising players who were 25 or younger. That number is now down to four.

A new day is not dawning in Alameda County. God help us all.

At The Break: An Overview

Whoops! Looks like we tuned out for 37 games. Don't fret, Worrier Nation -- reputable blogs do this kind of thing all the time.

When last we spoke, the Warriors were 8-10 and flailing. They lost eight of their next nine, but have since gone 17-11, a modest achievement that nevertheless demolishes anything they've done since the Beard disappeared. The Dubs have already matched their '09-'10 win total, something only two other teams (dem Nets and dem Sixers) can claim. Here at the dawn of All-Star weekend, they stand above an honest-to-God NBA team (dem Rockets) in the standings. The 9-18 start and the monstrosity that was 1/28/11 have faded in the thrill of six straight wins over plus-.500 teams. The Warriors are starting to rise, and the fanbase is starting to buzz. Is there reason for all the excitement in Oakland? Let's take a closer look.

When you analyze the season to date, the first impression you get is a sadly familiar one:

1) The Warriors Have Been Bad At Basketball

Any clear-eyed analysis has to start here... while the Warriors haven't been a terrible NBA team, they've been a solidly poor one. They have the 18th-best record in the league but just the 21st-best point differential. And the team's recent competitiveness has come during a part of the schedule that has been heavy on home games and -- something that hasn't gotten enough attention -- very light on back-to-backs. When a team gets a string of rested games in its building, it should win some games.

After a road-heavy start to the season, the Dubs have now played as many home games as any team in basketball. The Dubs have actually been healthier than the average outfit... the Curry/Monta/Wright/Lee/Biedrins lineup has started 33 games, tied for fifth-highest among NBA quintets. And for all that, the team is still decidedly below average. At their pre-Christmas nadir, the Warriors placed 22nd in Basketball Reference's adjusted rankings. The recent flurry has skyrocketed them all the way to, well, 21st. This has not been a good basketball team. And why not? The two-pronged answer is also sadly familiar.

Sins of the Starters

So. Since we last spoke, the Dubs have lost semi-competitive games in Houston and Memphis, snapped their losing streak with a solid performance in Minnesota, and kick-started a new losing streak with a stinker at home against the Spurs. For all the changes in the offseason, these seem a lot like the same old Warriors: an offense that's not as good as it looks, a defense that's every bit as bad as it looks, and team that's going nowhere, and going there rather quickly.

There is still a fairly compelling glass-half-full view. The Dubs have solidly outscored their opponents when David Lee has been on the floor... more to the point, the results of the Curry-Ellis-Wright-Lee-Biedrins quintet have been rather spectacular. In the 138 minutes that the starting lineup has played together, they've outscored their opponents by a mind-boggling 83 points, the equivalent of winning three games by an average score of 121-92. By Basketball Value's adjusted plus-minus (the usual sample-size caveats apply), the Warriors' quintet actually ranks as the fifth-most effective unit in the league, and the second-most effective starting lineup in the league, behind only the Miami variant that features Big Z at the five. That dog'll hunt.

Unfortunately, this half-full glass has a couple cracks in it. For one thing, the starting lineup's stellar results are predicated partly on an offensive excellence that may be sustainable, but partly on a defensive brilliance that isn't. More to the point, however, the Warriors starters create negative externalities that make life even harder for the overmatched backups that succeed them. The starters hurt the team in ways that elude even the most sophisticated plus-minus systems.

The Bench

That 6-2 start was mighty nice, but if the last six games haven't taken the wind out of your sails, your boating license oughtta be revoked. Since David Lee went down with a case of tooth elbow, the Warriors have

- gotten gored by the Bulls in an understandable but ugly road-weary blowout;

- been outscrapped by Milwaukee in the worst Golden State offensive performance in years;

- barely survived a middling Pistons team after a complete second-half collapse;

- been lit up by the Knicks in front of the home faithful;

- gotten stomped by a Lakers team that never even considered leaving cruise control, and

- gone cold in Denver, in another excusable loss that was uglier than it had to be.

Simply put, dem Dubs have been playing some wretched, wretched basketball. The offense is tied for 19th in the league in efficiency; the defense, which had shown early signs of legitimacy, now ranks 26th. The team's -4.7 point differential is significantly worse than last year's. Yes, they're still .500. But this may very well be the least impressive 7-7 team in league history. And given the rough road they have to travel over the next four weeks -- after the holiday, their list of opponents reads "Spurs-Suns-Thunder-Mavs-Spurs-Heat-Jazz" -- the Warriors probably won't be .500 for long.

Others will tell you that better days are coming -- that the return of David Lee will make a huge difference (possible, though he never seemed to help the Knicks' fortunes to any massive degree), that the return of Louis Amundson will help a bit (certainly so), that the schedule will get easier (indeed it will), that "these guys just need time to gel" (possible but unfounded). We're not here to tell you that things won't get better. But we are interested in examining why they've gotten so bad. The nightly disparity in free throws is a big reason. Another is the bench.

Ten Games In: The Starters

For the first time in several years, the Warriors have a clear-cut starting quintet. How are these five fellas doing? Let's examine that question by looking at their per-36 numbers and plus-minus results, again using '09-'10 numbers as a frame of reference. (Data comes courtesy of two of our faves, Basketball Reference and Basketball Value.)

Andris Biedrins

'09-'10 Per 36: 7.8 PTS on 6.5 shots (.561 TS%), 12.2 REB, 2.7 AST, 1.5 TO, 0.9 STL, 2.1 BLK, 5.5 PF

'10-'11 Per 36: 7.9 PTS on 8.0 shots (.474 TS%), 12.7 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.6 TO, 1.4 STL, 1.0 BLK, 4.9 PF

'09-'10 Net Plus/Minus: -5.67

'10-'11 Net Plus/Minus: +12.44

To hear Fitz and Barnett tell it, Beans has come back from a wretched, injured season to regain his earlier high level of performance. The numbers tell a quite different story: this Andris Biedrins is basically last year's model, only with more misses and worse passing.

Now, part of the disconnect is that last year's Beans was a lot more productive than most people thought: an efficient-scoring rebound machine that passes well has its uses, timidity and defensive flaws notwithstanding. But Andris is still gunshy around the basket -- he's currently getting to the line one sixth as often as he did in '08-'09 -- and has had uncharacteristic trouble converting on the few occasions when he's been willing to shoot. His foul rate is not as comically high as last year's, but it's still far too high. Dude's not yet back to his old form, and not particularly close to it, either.

You'd be hard-pressed, however, to say that his issues have been hurting the team's chances thus far. Andris's plus-minus numbers have taken a sharp 180... to hear the early adjusted plus-minus results tell it, Andris now, as he often did in the Baron days, boasts the best on-court/off-court results of any Warrior. That Andris Biedrins is useful is undeniable. That he will reach his 2008 form again is an open question.

Ten Games In: The Team

(Quick programming note: our decreased unemployment has made regular blogging a taller task. Going forward, we're not going to cover every single game. But we will be chiming in on dem Dubs every Monday and Thursday, in our traditional numbers-heavy style, and will single out the occasional game for the microscope. We hope you tune in and join us.)

So. On the one hand, the Warriors are 6-4, and (cue the desperate kind of accounting that crappy teams' fans are reduced to), if the season ended today, they'd nab the sixth seed in the Western Conference. On the other hand, their -1.9 point differential bespeaks a .400 team more than a .600 team. But on an unprecedented and terrifying third hand, their early schedule has been road-heavy and arduous, with one of the season's three big East coast swings already in the books. Maybe a -1.9 differential in these ten games ain't so bad, after all. Or maybe it ain't not so bad. How good are these guys, really?

Let's take a look at the team output thus far, using last year's wretched squad as a reference point. (Next time out, we'll take a look at the season's output on an individual level.)

#1: HOU @ GS 10/27/10

PreThoughts

We Worriers are busy, and them baseballers in orange and black have been consuming what little sports energy we have. But a new Dubs season is upon us, and a fascinating one it should be.

The official Worrier predictions for the year: a 36-46 showing, and frequent mutterings from us and others about Anthony Randolph. These Rockets are tough; this conference is fierce; this offseason may not bear immediate fruit. But several monkeys have been stripped from our collective backs, and who the fuck knows, as they say on Opening Night. Best of luck to us all.

Rocket To Watch: Yao Ming, whose usage patterns will be fascinating.

Warrior To Watch: David Lee, who will provide us some happy memories if he provides any defense.

Whoa, Nellie.

While we Worriers were busy elsewhere, the biggest, gnarliest thorn in this blog's side was removed: Don Nelson jetted home to Maui, after tendering a "resignation" that had a distinct "you're fired, so save face if you like" flavor to it. The organization predictably named Keith Smart as Nellie's successor, with the big man's strong blessing... we'll address Mr. Smart soon enough.

The bones of this particular issue have long since been picked clean, but we'll chime in with a couple belated reactions to Nellie's departure.

* First off, thank the good lord. This team had no prayer of becoming relevant with a head coach on autopilot. The 2010-11 Warriors probably won't be relevant under Smart either, but having a motivated and detail-oriented man at the helm will make a big, big difference. The fact that Lacob, Guber et al realized this is an encouraging data point... it didn't take a rocket scientist to realize Nellie's useful days were done, but the previous regime never figured it out.

* Nellie was fired after a second straight 50+ loss season, after a season that produced several embarrassing NBA records, after alienating over $120 million worth of the roster, after a disgracefully unprofessional performance. He became the league's all-time winningest coach in April, and yet the new ownership regime couldn't even wait to assume ownership to get rid of him. Incredibly, this is the classiest and most amicable parting Nellie has ever had with an NBA franchise.

* Nellie presided over a tumultuous four seasons, with heavy roster turnover, front office conflict and sudden changes in team direction... he was complicit in all of these factors, of course, but they make an overall synopsis of his coaching performance difficult. However, you can pretty decently sum up his second Golden State tenure with a simple pair of statistics.

'06-'10 Warriors (with Baron Davis): 84-62, .575

'06-'10 Warriors (without Baron Davis): 61-121, .335

Nellie used more or less the same strategy throughout this run: go small, go fast, go for steals, and give tons of minutes and leeway to your best offensive player. With a maestro like Baron around, this strategy worked, and worked well. When the Dubs' best offensive player was anyone else -- Jack, Monta, Curry -- the strategy was more or less disastrous. Nellie never bothered to veer from it, and his failure to re-jigger led to an embarrassing two-year finish to his coaching career. The man was long lionized for his ability to adapt. When he stopped adapting, he quickly perished.

* Don Nelson finished his NBA coaching career with a record of 1,335-1063, going 418-445 in Oakland and 917-618 everywhere else. Given the length of his two tenures and the bland failures of the men who served in between them, many Warriors fans have trouble even remembering another coach, and yet when you look at Don Nelson's career, you realize his Golden State years amount to little more than padding. Whatever coaching and team-building greatness the man displayed took place in Milwaukee and Dallas; coaching the Warriors was what Nellie did when he wasn't doing anything important. It's one last painful reminder of this team's irrelevance over the past several decades.

Fare thee well, Nellie. You were often maddening, but rarely boring, and when a little more dust collects on the ugliness of the past two years, we will remember you fondly. Until then, lose our fucking number, you clown.

Carneyvale

Lucky Warrior #13, come on down! We're looking at you, Rodney Carney. And as with so many other Golden State moves this summer, we're seeing something of a mixed bag.

The good news here is pretty straightforward: Carney is a solid commodity as cheap bench pieces go, a useful 26-year-old with some athleticism and upside. His career per-36 numbers -- 13.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists against 1.2 turnovers, a .510 TS% -- scream "slightly below average", and his plus-minus numbers more or less echo that take. He probably is who he is at this point, but he did record career-best marks in rebounding, passing efficiency and free-throw shooting last year, so you could at least plausibly wishcast him into an average player down the road. Even without improvement, the guy should make a good third-string small forward this season.

But the signing of Rodney Carney begs a smack-your-forehead obvious question: Why is the front office worried about the third string when the second string is so horrible? As things stand, the Warriors' B-team includes Jeremy Lin, Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric... this is a team with gaping holes in its second unit, and meaningful patches like Louis Amundson and Earl Watson are still available. Instead of locking those guys in, the Dubs have done what they always seem to do when they have a roster quandary: they've shrugged and grabbed a swingman.

Rodney Carney isn't any sort of problem. But for this team, at this time, he isn't any sort of solution, either. The Warriors need another bench big and another bench guard, and if this signing precludes the acquisitions of guys like Watson and Amundson, it's money very poorly spent.

The Road Not Taken

It's very easy to bag on the Warriors' offseason, as we did yesterday... it's another thing entirely to propose a superior strategy. Pitch positive, as they say in our other line of work. How would we Worriers have handled this summer? We're glad you asked!

First, we would've decided upon a direction for the franchise. And as it happens, that direction would be the same one we advocated eight months ago: rebuilding, with an eye towards competing in 2011-12. There is, and was, no reason to believe that the Warriors could contend for a playoff spot in the upcoming season, so why waste resources trying? Moreover, NBA armageddon looms next summer, as a lockout and extensive re-jiggering of the salary cap structure are more than likely. If you don't have a good team when the mushroom cloud hits, you're best off getting yourself cheap, young and flexible, so you can nab talent from those teams that need to dump salary in a hurry.

A rebuilding mindset would've led to the following moves. (Note: we're not changing the Udoh pick, because that's too easy.)

Warriors Stumble On... 35 Wins

You may remember an article that created a bit of a stir in the Warriors blogosphere a month or so ago... Jeremy Britton, a Dubs fan and Wages of Wins contributor, pointed out that the new-look Warriors projected to be a 50-win team by WP48. Actually, the exact projection he came to was 56.9 wins, a number so outlandish that he didn't even dare mention it in the text of the piece.

In case you couldn't tell, we ain't buying this 50-win talk. Frankly, we ain't buying WP48, either. Kevin Love, a guy on a 15-win team, is the fourth-most effective player in the league? Troy Murphy, a massive detriment, a blight upon the earth, is the twelfth-most effective player in the league? Like fun, Wagers. As Dave Berri's evasve snippiness in the comments section attests, this isn't a system you can really vouch for. All you can do is claim that it's infallible, eyes shut, fingers in your ears, shouting to the heavens. We Worriers aren't statisticians, but we know an echo chamber when we see one.

So we're going to project this team's potential ourselves, using two different tools: the Win Percentage figures over at Basketball Prospectus and the Win Shares figures at Basketball Reference. This'll be some quick and dirty figgerin', and the results won't be the gospel by any means, but we'd take them a lot more seriously than the WP48 results. Why? Every key Warrior, except for Dorell Wright, presided over worse team defense when on the floor than their individual numbers suggest. These two metrics attempt to account for that; WP48 doesn't.

So. First, let's estimate minutes totals for the '09-'10 Warriors.

PG: Stephen Curry (36), Charlie Bell (12)

SG: Monta Ellis (36), Reggie Williams (12)

SF: Dorell Wright (30), Reggie Williams (18)

PF: David Lee (30), Brandan Wright (18)

C: Andris Biedrins (30), David Lee (6), Dan Gadzuric (12)

An Open Letter To Joe Lacob

Greetings, kind sir, and apologies for the dreadfully hackneyed format of this blog post.

Congratulations on your new basketball team! We were delighted to hear of your acquisition (the failure of Larry Ellison to buy the franchise caused no tears in Worrierland), and your hour-long discussion with the Razor and Mr. T was informative and appreciated. It must be a hectic time for you and your partners. You don't even officially own the team yet, and joy-starved Warriors fans risk overburdening you with demands and requests (one of which you've already been kind enough to sound off on).

Our worry-filled cup runneth over... we have no shortage of suggestions, thoughts, gripes and musings. But as your time is limited (and since you'll never actually read this), we will make only one request, one you can fulfill simply by doing nothing.

Do not trade Andris Biedrins.

Not this season, anyway, and certainly not before it. You're hearing a lot of babble about his free-throw shooting and his controversial Latvian interview... your task is to ignore that babble. There's a slam-dunk statistical argument in favor of keeping the guy, but we needn't even resort to that to demonstrate how important Beans's continued presence is. Some general business rules of thumb will do.

1) Never sell low. Trading Andris Biedrins anytime in the near future would qualify. Twelve months ago, he was a 23-year-old coming off of a double-double season, a guy who'd engendered occasional All-Star mutterings outside the Bay Area, a player who was discussed as the centerpiece in deals for Chauncey Billups and Amar'e Stoudemire, among others. Now, thanks in large part to other Warriors employees, he's seen as a wart-ridden goofball. Joe, you didn't become a whateverionnaire by pissing away commodities at the nadir of their value. Biedrins is 24, and on a non-increasing contract... you can stand to wait a while and see if he appreciates.

2) Protect your investments. The above is doubly true because of the summer's key acquisition, the guy who'll earn almost a fifth of what you just paid for this team. David Lee is a guy with many strengths, but "playing center in the NBA" ain't one of them. Alongside a five who protects the rim and cleans up his messes, Lee could be the difference-maker he was paid to be; left to fend for himself in the middle, he's a defensive sieve, and an overall mixed bag at best. The only player on the Warriors roster -- hell, one of the few in the NBA -- that has a chance at complementing David Lee properly is Andris Biedrins. It may not work even with Andris, but it sure as hell won't work without him.

3) Choose the right people. There are rumblings that you may leave Don Nelson on the bench to start the season. While we Worriers quite emphatically wouldn't, there's an argument for ceding to inertia in this case. However, this franchise has hemorrhaged a good number of useful players away in the fat man's name over the years, and while he once provided enough value to make that a worthwhile trade, he no longer provides enough value to justify hemorrhaging away a Twix bar. If you are forced to choose between Andris Biedrins and Don Nelson, please, for the love of fucking fuck, recognize that that choice ain't no choice at all. Andris Biedrins is an imperfect asset; Don Nelson is a noxious sunk cost.

Thanks, Joe. We'd say "good luck", but we're hoping you're an intelligent enough chief executive to not need much of it.

Mr. Lee

The misbegotten Chris Cohan era will be neatly bookended by a pair of 80-million-dollar power forwards. The rookie deal Chris Webber opted out of in 1994 was slated to earn him $84 million over fifteen years, numbers that sound bizarre now for all sorts of reasons. And the signature act of the last-ever Summer of Cohan was the trade for David Lee, who came equipped with a freshly inked six-year, 80-million-dollar contract. If Lee plays out that contract in the Bay Area, he'll end up being paid more money than any player in Warrior history. As such, the guy merits a pretty close look under the statistical magnifying glass.

Here are ten good things about David Lee:

1) He scores often and efficiently. Lee's 20.2 scoring average placed him 15th in the league last year, two slots ahead of Corey Maggette, and one slot behind the dearly departed Stephen Jackson. He shot .545 from the field last season, the ninth-best mark in basketball. His .584 True Shooting Percentage was the lowest of his five-year NBA career, and he still just missed the league's top twenty by a nose.

2) He rebounds like a beast. Lee averaged 11.7 rebounds a night in each of the last two seasons, placing third and fourth in the league for his efforts. The Knicks' pace inflated his numbers, but only by a tad: Lee's 17.9% Rebounding Percentage was the eighth-best mark in 2009-10. His work on the defensive glass is particularly impressive... only Dwight Howard grabbed more defensive boards than David Lee last season.

3) He's becoming an excellent passer. After putting up pedestrian assist totals in his first several seasons, David Lee found religion on the passing front in 2009-10, leading all centers with 3.6 nightly assists. This wasn't mitigated by a boatload of turnovers, either... Lee posted a 1.56 A/TO ratio, well above most big men and comfortably ahead of (ahem) Monta Ellis.

4) He makes his free throws. Lee shot .812 from the charity stripe in '09-'10, the third time in four years he'd topped 81%. A big that can ice free throws late is a valuable thing.

5) He stretches the floor. While he made his name as a banger, David Lee has quietly become a marksman from inside the arc. From 10-15 feet, he hit 49.6% of his shots last year, just a shade below Kobe Bryant... from 16-23 feet, he made 43% of his shots, just a shade below Stephen Curry. Lee hasn't made a three-pointer in an NBA game yet, but given the rate at which he's improved his range, that day isn't far off.

Pargomania...?

For a team that seemed comprised almost exclusively of little guys just four months ago, the Warriors sure ran out of 'em quick. Corey Maggette and Kelenna Azubuike were traded away; the blink-and-you-missed-him Raja Bell signed with the Jazz; the Warriors decided not to match reasonable contract offers to Anthony Morrow and C.J. Watson. All five of these players play small forward or smaller in a sane universe, and their departures stripped the returning non-big depth chart down to Curry, Monta and Reggie Williams. To compensate, the Warriors have added a promising three in Dorell Wright, a charming novelty act in Jeremy Lin, and a pretty useless vet in Charlie Bell. Today, the Dubs added another piece: 31-year-old journeyman Jannero Pargo has agreed to a two-year contract worth $2.4 millon in full.

The way to look at this signing is to ask yourself the following question. Let's say you've just signed a player to an 80-million-dollar contract, thereby signaling that you're serious about competing in the near future. Your cap situation is decent... you aren't likely to sign any max players in the near future, but you're in no danger of triggering the luxury tax, either. In that scenario, which would you rather have?

Lin-demonium!

Say this for the new ownership regime: they ain't apathetic about PR. Recent Harvard grad, native Palo Altan and lifelong Dubs fan Jeremy Lin is now a Warrior, making him the league's first full-blooded Asian-American in over 60 years. Lin is the poster child of a heavily-linked Youtube clip, a raucous GSOM campaign and an e-mail a fan sent to new owner Joe Lacob, an e-mail to which Lacob promptly responded.

Let's start here: no, Jeremy Lin is not going to be as good as C.J. Watson. CJ is an efficient scorer, a tremendous ball-handler, a canny defender... he's an above-average NBA player. DraftExpress deemed Jeremy Lin just the 95th-best prospect in the 2010 draft, for reasons that a good Summer League performance doesn't magically erase. Lin is dreadfully small for the NBA game, and rates as neither an elite shooter nor an elite passer. If the front office thinks Lin can fill CJ's shoes, it's a dumber front office than even the most jaded among us give them credit for.

Now, the front office probably doesn't see Lin as the backup point guard, so much as an end-of-the-bench fan favorite who'll sell a few marginal tickets and get the franchise some positive press. And seen in that light, this is a tremendous signing, a savvy PR move without any real cost. Lin is an intensely likeable and entertaining player, and a guy who may spark new fan interest in the Bay Area's massive Asian-American community. Ain't nothing wrong with a great story.

But let's just hope everybody remembers that it's a story, and that the odds of Lin ever becoming a good NBA player are remote. The Warriors are coming out of a long sojourn in the wilderness, and the last thing they need to do is to fall in love with a narrative that minimizes the importance of wins and losses. Great stories are good; competitive basketball is better. And this team still needs a backup point guard.

See Ya, C.J.

The other half of last season's underrated backcourt bench tandem has just flown the coop. C.J. Watson is Chicago-bound, in a sign-and-trade that nets the Warriors a second-round pick and a trade exception worth $3.5 million or so. The Udoh pick was silly, the Lee trade was heartbreaking, the Morrow loss was needless... but make no mistake, superfriends. This, right here, is the dumbest move of the offseason.

When you factor in his miniscule turnover ratio, his solid scoring and his stellar showings by plus-minus (a team-best +6.7 net plus-minus last season, a +2.47 two-year adjusted plus-minus that places him in the league’s top fifty), it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that C.J. Watson is one of the best backup point guards in basketball. The guy records steals by the bushel without getting called for fouls... he takes tremendous care of the ball... he drives rarely, but with precision. C.J. Watson is a winning player, something that can't be said of many Warriors. And now he's gone.

The Warriors had the money to keep him. They also badly need someone to back up Curry, and to help out at the two if Monta gets hurt and/or Reggie gets called into action at the three (Charlie Bell should not be in any team’s rotation at this point in his career). Simply put, there was no bigger no-brainer this offseason than matching a two-year, $7 million dollar offer to C.J. Watson. I don’t know what the current ownership complexities are, and I don’t really care. This is an absolutely moronic decision, far dumber than letting Morrow go. Teams don’t get better by punting away good players on cheap contracts.

Congrats to C.J., who will probably help a scary-looking Bulls team nudge past the 60-win mark. The Warriors Twitterverse will be far quieter without you, young man, and the win column will be a couple notches emptier, too.