A brief jaunt through the past sixteen seasons:
'94-'06: pure, unmitigated torture.
'06-'07: You guys remember when we beat the Mavs in the playoffs?! That was awesome!!!
'07-'08: For all the fun of "We Believe", this struck me as the higher-upside, better-structured team. Articles and editorials and epic poems and rock operas have been written about the J-Rich trade... I count myself firmly among its fans. We dumped an overpriced player at a position we had covered, and picked up a promising young power forward to boot -- it was a trade that substantially brightened our future. Between Baron on a short contract, valuable '10 expirings in Al and Jack, and a young nucleus of Biedrins, Monta, Wright and Azubuike, we were in real position to put together an interesting roster the next year. And the team was still good, to boot! No playoffs, which stank, but really, the future of the team was brighter in June of 2008 than it had been since Webber was a rookie. What could possibly go wrong?
'08-'09: Baron opts out and then signs with the Clippers and then we try for Brand and Arenas and finally end up with Maggette and wait do we actually need Maggette and Monta has some sort of slowmotion blooper and meanwhile Al hates Nellie and becomes Jamal Crawford who sucks and plus Jack gets an extension for no reason and wait is Corey Maggette our power forward and THE SPIDERS OH GOD THE SPIDERS. Last year sucked.
'09-'10: This year is looking to suck, too. But, hey, that happens sometimes. The Spurs sucked one year, the Magic sucked one year; the Cavs super-sucked. The Celtics sucked forever. Their respective rewards were Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard, LeBron and a pick that morphed into Kevin Garnett. Sometimes you've got to suck to get better. So what's the problem?
The problem is 1994-2009. The problem is the weight of a dream deferred, the hunger of a fanbase that's dying for satisfaction. After thirteen years in the wilderness, we made the playoffs and shocked the world, and then got better, but missed the playoffs, and then somehow it all unraveled. Warriors fans were robbed of catharsis: "We Believe" begged a second act that never came. Anger, sadness and betrayal linger in the Oakland air.
And those ill feelings cloud every move the team makes. It's why we signed Corey Maggette, why we traded for Crawford instead of expiring money, why there is no talk of giving up on this season. The franchise is doing its best to tread water, to stumble back into an eighth seed, to convince its fans that the "We Believe" candle has not gone completely out. No matter how bad things get, you just can't ask these fans to sit through a rebuilding process.
Actually, wait: yes, you can. The Dubs have one of the most loyal fanbases in sports, a fanbase that survived Todd Fuller and Mike Dunleavy; they may grumble, but they'll stick around, even through a full-on rebuild, if that's what's required.
And let's be perfectly clear: we do need a rebuild. This team is misshapen and injured and inconsistent and confusing, with five guys that could be stars but zero that are. We are not some health and good luck away from a playoff spot; we are not one player away from a playoff spot, unless that player is Chris Paul. And there's no way the basketball gods like us that much.
So to the fans and Warriors employees that look at Bell and Speedy's expiring deals and have dreams of Tayshaun Prince or Caron Butler dancing in their heads, my message is unequivocal: don't do it. There is no play here, no champagne room; hope is not a strategy. We shouldn't build further upon this misbegotten foundation. We need to finish tearing this foundation down. We need to start afresh, to build a core without apology or compromise, and to set our sights on something better. A gleaming meadow of possibilities, a place without conflict or strife, a place where burgers are good for you and the self-effacing outcast always gets to kiss the popular girl.
A placed called 2011-12.
(thanks to HoopHype.com)We will not compete this year. It's not all that likely that we'll compete next year, either, with a rehabbing 'Buike and a raft of teams freshly re-loaded from free agency. We shouldn't try not to compete next year... if it happens, great. But it's not the season to circle in our calendars.
In the summer of 2011, Morrow, Azubuike and Vlad come off the books. The only players we'll have under contract are Biedrins, Monta, Maggette, Randolph, Curry and next year's rookie, plus Turiaf if he wants to stay; Wright will be a restricted free agent. That's about $48 million against the cap, in a year when it should be back north of $56 million. If we rid ourselves of Maggette (more on that later), we'll have only $38 million against the cap. Even if we wanted to re-sign Morrow *and* 'Buike *and* Wright, we'll be able to fit a max-sized player in ahead of them, in a year when most teams don't project to have space. In eighteen months, we can have a young, talented, flexible core, and be one of the only big dogs in a post-hype free agency market. All it takes is the will to make it happen.
This is the play... this is our window. This is Franchise Fix #3: we need to orient ourselves entirely towards the idea of competing in 2011-2012. Guaranteed to work? Of course not. But a clear and unequivocal direction will make us better, and will probably be less aggravating to the fanbase than the current dithering. So get it over with... tell 'em the bad news and start preparing forthe future. In the next FF, we'll talk about what those preparations entail.
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